BOLD PREDICTIONS: AFC Championship Game

Producing the NFL’s best regular season record (13-4), the 2023 AFC North Champion Ravens earned a No. 1 playoff seed. After beating Houston, 34-10, in last Saturday’s Divisional Round, the Ravens will host the AFC Championship for the first time in franchise history, when they face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday (3 p.m. kickoff).

With its Divisional win over the Texans, Baltimore improved to (12-9) in postseason play under head coach John Harbaugh. This Sunday’s conference title game marks the Ravens’ fourth AFC Championship appearance (also 2008 & 2011-12) with Coach Harbaugh at the helm and their fifth (also 2000) in team history.

In the 2023 regular season, the Ravens tallied an NFL-record 10 victories vs. teams that finished with a winning record, and they posted six wins over playoff teams. Will they advance those numbers to 11 and 7 wins, respectively?

The early line on the game had the Ravens installed as 3 ½ point favorites with the over/under set at 44 ½ points. The line now sits at Ravens (-4) with the over/under at 44.

The kickoff forecast calls for a 73% chance of rain, temps at 44 degrees with 12 mph winds bringing the wind chill temps to 34 degrees.

Who will emerge from the nasty elements and advance to Super Bowl 58?

Tony Lombardi

During the sweltering days of training camp, the Ravens collective focus was to win the AFC North. Once accomplished, the attention shifted to being the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Now as they host the Chiefs in the quest for the Lamar Hunt Trophy, the mission is to get to the big game – to be the AFC’s representative in Super Bowl LVIII. So here we are, one game, one win away from the franchise’s third Super Bowl appearance.

Statistically the Ravens and Chiefs are very similar. But a couple of stats stick out. The Ravens score 28.4 PPG while the Chiefs score 21.8 PPG. The Ravens allow 16.5 PPG to the Chiefs 17.3 PPG. At home the Ravens average 32.1 PPG while the Chiefs average 21.4 PPG on the road. Defensively, the Ravens give up 17 PPG at home while the Chiefs give up 18.8 PPG away from Arrowhead.

• The Chiefs will look to control the ball with a heavy dose of Isiah Pacheco with a dash of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But Andy Reid will be forced to abandon the plan. The gimpy Pacheco won’t be as successful v. Ravens as he was in Buffalo last week. A.J. Klein isn’t quite the formidable opponent that Roquan Smith is. The Ravens will hold the pair of RB’s to 80 yards combined.

• That will force Mahomes to the air and while his yardage tally may look good on the scorecard by 6PM, the results will be mixed. The Ravens will pick off Tony Romo’s man-crush twice, each leading to Ravens scores.
• Lamar Jackson will throw for 2 scores, 210 yards and a passer rating of 115.0. One score goes to Mark Andrews and the other to Justice Hill on the wheel route that Todd Monken found to be so effective against the Dolphins.

• Gus Edwards, Hill and Dalvin Cook, along with Lamar, will combine for 180 yards on the ground. Cook hits pay dirt from 15+ yards out.

• Justin Madubuike drops Mahomes twice while Kyle Van Noy comes up with a strip sack.

• Mahomes will benefit from a questionable roughing the passer penalty in the fourth quarter which helps to keep a Chiefs drive alive, eventually leading to a touchdown. But it will be too little, too late.

The last time Baltimore hosted an AFCCG, the Colts defeated the Oakland Raiders. Fifty-three years later, the final score will be identical to that displayed on January 3, 1971. Get ready to collect confetti Flockers! The trophy named after the Chiefs’ original owner is coming home to Baltimore.

Next stop, Las Vegas.

Ravens 27, Chiefs 17

[Ravens v. Chiefs Preview & Key Matchups]

Rob Shields

The Ravens are the better team in almost every way. They should win this game rather easily. However, there are a few factors going against them.

The first and most obvious factor is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is 13-1 in the playoffs when he doesn’t play Tom Brady and that one loss was in OT. He’s already one of the most decorated playoff QBs ever and his level of play increases in the playoffs.

The second factor is that KC has a real defense. They were second to the Ravens in many key stats and they have two lockdown corners. On the other hand, KC hasn’t seen a team like this in 2023, so some of that may be overstated.

The third factor is that it looks like it will be raining during the game. It won’t be Steelers bad but showers during the game could be an issue for Lamar, as he has struggled in the rain before including the Indy game this year. He handles the ball more than other QBs and they have those mesh point handoffs and the wetter the ball, the bigger that issue is.

Now obviously the wet ball works both ways, but I think an uglier game benefits the Chiefs.

All of that being said, the Ravens are just the better team. KC is in trouble if Thuney doesn’t play. Their tackles have been problems all year long and now if you take away their one All Pro, it really hurts.

Last week Buffalo ran the ball well but you wonder, especially if it’s raining, how easy it will be to run it as KC really stacks the box. This will obviously be the Ravens game plan.

The Ravens have had some issues on teams as well, so that needs to be buttoned up. Jordan Stout needs to punt the ball well, as this could be a field position game.

Ravens 24 Chiefs 21

Darin McCann

It’s all-too rare that the most optimistic of expectations meets reality, but here we are.

The Ravens have played like one of the AFC’s powerhouses all season long, with extended periods of absolute dominance that would lead you to believe they were a legitimate threat to find themselves competing for a Super Bowl. They are 60 minutes of game time away from playing for it all, and they have a difficult opponent standing in their way.

Exactly as it should be.

Let’s look at some predictions:

• Kyle Hamilton will star, grabbing a pick, tallying eight tackles and making a highlight-reel breakup on a throw to Mr. Swift;
• Odafe Oweh will record a strip-sack and make a big stop to kill a Chiefs’ drive;
• Mark Andrews will play, and make two early catches, but Isaiah Likely will out-gain him and record a touchdown;
• Lamar Jackson will total three touchdowns, and not turn the ball over.

 

Ravens 27 Chiefs 16

Kevin McNelis

In addition to the obvious stakes of a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, it feels like there’s plenty to prove here as well. KC has fluctuated between a thorn in the side and a pain in the behind for Baltimore over the past few seasons, and I know I was grateful that they weren’t on the regular season slate this year for a change. Of course, like a bad habit, they just keep coming back, and they’ve proven through this playoff run that they’re hard to get rid of even in a close matchup. Can the Ravens put an end to their run?

— KC has shown an improved ability to make their offense a little more multi-faceted this year, not just because their receivers have struggled and forced them to go to the ground, but also because Isiah Pacheco has proven to be a legitimate rushing threat. Still, his status for Sunday’s game is in doubt with a toe injury, and standout guard Joe Thuney is trending toward being inactive as well. Even if both of those guys suit up, it’ll be tough sledding on the ground against this defense if they’re not 100%. KC rushes fewer than 60 yards on the day.

— When forced to go back to the air, they’ll have some success, including a TD strike to Rashee Rice. However, Kyle Hamilton will be shadowing Travis Kelce most of the afternoon, and an ill-advised throw in Kelce’s direction gets tipped by Ky Ham and picked off by Patrick Queen.

— My major factor tipping the scales? Baltimore’s rush offense vs. KC’s rush defense. The Chiefs were in the bottom half of the league in rushing defense during the regular season, and Buffalo gashed them for 182 yards on the ground last week. Now they’re coming into a matchup against the NFL’s #1 rushing offense, which is fresh off a game against the Texans defense (6th in rush defense during the regular season) where Houston got trampled on the ground for 229 rushing yards.

KC can stack the box all they want, but they haven’t seen the multi-faceted version of the Ravens they’re facing this go-round. It’ll be a back and forth affair, with Pat Mahomes threatening to breathe life back into it a few times, but once the Ravens run game hits a rhythm, they grab the lead and never let go.

Ravens 31, KC 20

Derek Arnold

I said I believe. That doesn’t stop now. This Ravens team is a machine. Mahomes is Mahomes, but in the ultimate team sport, even a future first-ballot Hall of Famer like Pat can’t stop what’s coming.

Ravens 31 Chiefs 17

Chris Schisler

The Ravens are the better team. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes but Baltimore isn’t going to bow down to him. The Ravens are going to make a statement and go to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have taken the easy road to get here. They battled two banged up teams and the Dolphins barely even showed up. The Chiefs are lucky Buffalo missed a field goal. The Ravens defense is much better than Buffalo’s injury-hampered unit.

I think the Ravens will play keep-away with the ball and the Chiefs will be in a tough situation. The Ravens will have an answer for Travis Kelce and they’ll contain the run game. The best defense for sacks and interceptions will have Patrick Mahomes running for his life and trying to improvise. Hero ball from Mahomes will actually hurt the Chiefs.  Baltimore will contain his weapons.

Buffalo had a nice game plan. The Ravens can pound the rock with their running backs and set up big plays down the field. Anything Josh Allen can do, Lamar Jackson can do better. The Ravens are going to put up some points.

Ravens 34 Chiefs 21

Chad Racine

Before the season started I predicted the Ravens would make it to the AFC championship game. I didn’t expect they would be the number 1 seed or this dominant. In fact I thought the defense would take a step back with the losses of Calais Campbell and Marcus Peters. Instead the defense has been the best it’s been in many years and maybe since the 2000 defense.

Lamar statistically isn’t having the season he had in 2019 but he’s a much better overall player. He’s the favorite to receive his second MVP award. He’s clearly more focused than ever operating with his best offensive cast to date. The window of opportunity may be limited with salary cap constraints in the future.

— Lamar will put up modest passing stats in the rain and play efficiently. He’ll run for 80 yards and pass for just under 200 yards and 2 touchdowns and rush for another.

— Justice Hill will rush for 75 yards and add another 30 yards in receptions.

— Gus Edwards will rush for 50 yards and a short yardage touchdown.

— Isaiah Likely and Zay Flowers will be the recipients of the touchdown passes.

– Patrick Queen will record a sack and a pass breakup.

– Roquan will lead the team in tackles with eight and land some heavy hits on Pacheco setting the defensive tone.

– Clowney and Madubuike will both record sacks.

– Marcus Williams will have an interception in the 4th quarter in a key moment in the game

Ravens 34, Chiefs 20

Jared Pinder

So it all comes down to this. When people say you want to beat the best, this is the type of game they are talking about. The Chiefs right now are banged up and have massive questions at multiple positions. Meanwhile, the Ravens look locked in and ready to go in terms of injuries with Mark Andrews and Marlo returning for this game. If the Chiefs were healthy it would be a lot closer but after watching the film and seeing how they took advantage of a hurt defense and with the Ravens looking so locked in right now, I predict the Ravens to win this game by a bigger margin than some expect.

– Lamar continues his dominance and has 5 total touchdowns with three through the air.

– The running game gets going and the backs find the end zone at least once.

– The Ravens’ defense holds Mahomes and the injured KC offense under 200 yards and to only two scores.

It would be closer if the Chiefs were healthy, but with these injuries for the Chiefs and the energy around the Ravens right now, I can’t predict a loss, or even a close game.

Ravens 37 Chiefs 14

Brennan Stewart

As soon as it became official that the Ravens were playing against the Chiefs for the AFC Championship, the message that took over Ravens Twitter (sorry, X) was “to be the best, you have to beat the best.” There couldn’t be a more truthful statement surrounding this game as Patrick Mahomes continues to shape up as the league’s next Tom Brady.

Obviously the biggest controversy (or should I say, “conspiracy theory”) surrounding this game is Shawn Smith leading the officiating crew. Whether or not you want to buy into that theory, it definitely should be interesting to see how close to perfect this game is called, considering that Smith has to be aware of the narrative being pushed about him which could potentially factor how he officiates (hopefully not, but is that really an impossible scenario?) Regardless— Baltimore’s offensive line carries perhaps the most discipline it’s had in the Lamar Jackson era, and KC is coming to The Bank where the Texans recently suffered five false starts and a delay of game thanks to the efforts of the home crowd. If you ask me, the Chiefs have more to worry about in the penalty department than the Ravens do. With that said, here are some props to consider based on a gut-feeling:

• It’s looking like another poor weather game on Sunday with rain in the forecast. Baltimore takes advantage of its diverse run-game against Kansas City’s defense that finished in the middle of the pack in the regular season for rushing yards allowed (ranked 15th-most with 1956). Baltimore surpasses 200 rushing yards for a second straight game but Isiah Pacheco is held to less than 50.
• Patrick Mahomes throws an interception in the first half to give Baltimore a big morale boost. Geno Stone makes the catch.
• Lamar Jackson records both a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown (at least two).
• Jackson does not exceed 150 passing yards.
• Travis Kelce records a touchdown.
• Jadeveon Clowney records a sack.

 

In such a competitive game, these teams need every advantage they can muster. Side-by-side, Baltimore has a far superior run defense that will serve as the ultimate factor for success.

Ravens 31 Chiefs 27

Tanner George

For the first time ever, the AFC Championship will be at the Bank.

The crowd was rocking last week, and I can only expect the stadium to be louder on Sunday when the Ravens take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City sort of slogged through an ugly regular season, finishing a respectable 11-6 but with some losses to iffy teams. However, it looks as if they’ve finally turned it on in the playoffs, and they’ll be a tough group to knock off.

I think the Ravens will still do it, and here’s why: they want it more.

The Chiefs have been here before, and as Stephen A. said on first take, Mahomes is playing with house money. Having booked trips to conference title game every year of his career, with two Super Bowl rings to show for it, he won’t face any backlash for dropping this game. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, on the other hand, have everything to lose. But they’re determined to finish the job.

The offense will come out hot after shaking off the rust against Houston, putting up a combined 10 points on their first two drives. Mike Mac’s defense will smother Patrick Mahomes in the first half, and the crowd noise will force at least one early penalty. While it will get more interesting down the stretch, I see the Ravens holding onto a win. If Lamar could beat Mahomes in 2021 with a supporting cast featuring Tyson Williams, Hollywood Brown, and Sammy Watkins, he can surely do it again with Gus Edwards, Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman—as well as a far better defense shutting down the other side.

The Ravens understand the significance of this game, and they want it bad.

Back at the Bank, it’s time to make another deposit—in the form of airfare to Vegas.

Ravens 27, Chiefs 20

Nick Polinsky

For the first time in 11 years, the Lamar Hunt Trophy is in one game’s reach for Baltimore.

It was almost inevitable that Patrick Mahomes would turn into his playoff self and it feels more poetic with the AFC’s reigning champs taking a visit to M&T Bank Stadium. For Baltimore, Kansas City has been a tough team to put away in the past, but both of these teams are vastly different from what they were two or three years ago.

The Ravens are pulling out all of the public relations stops in order to maximize the energy for the biggest game in M&T Bank Stadium history, and here’s how I think things will go after all of the festivities.

• Joe Thuney is a superstar on the Chiefs interior offensive line and after two consecutive DNP’s, his Sunday status is in question. Even if he does go, he will be hindered by his pec injury. Justin Madubuike will record a sack.
• Mark Andrews will return, and find the end zone in his first game back.
• Lamar Jackson continues to protect the football, hanging another 0 in the turnover column.
• We saw this Ravens defense hitting HARD last week. Roquan Smith will force a fumble this week resulting in a Chiefs turnover.

 

The Ravens have dominated quality opponents all season, why stop now?

Ravens 34 Chiefs 20