Welcome back to Day 4 of Ravens Fantasy Preview! So far this week, we’ve taken a look at the fantasy prospects of Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, and Lamar Jackson. If you missed any of those breakdowns, I encourage you to check them out!
Fantasy Preview: Derrick Henry
Today, we turn our eyes to a wide receiver who really came on as the 2023 season progressed: Zay Flowers. Flowers, a 2022 first-round pick out of Boston College, became arguably the best rookie pass catcher in franchise history while showcasing his explosion and elusiveness to make some impressive highlight-reel plays. Although he had a bit of a slow start, Zay had a strong finish to his fantasy debut, inspiring confidence for the 2024 season.
Player Breakdown: Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
2024 Rank (ESPN): 51 overall, WR25
2023 Output: 206.4 PPR points (12.9 per game)
2023 Stats: 77 receptions (108 targets), 889 yards, 5 TDs
Flowers has the chance to make a massive impact in the fantasy football world this year.
Amassing 108 targets as a rookie, particularly in Baltimore’s offense, is nothing short of impressive. Flowers was a guy that Lamar Jackson actually identified in the 2022 pre-draft process as someone who could do great things in this offense. LJ was familiar with Zay because of their South Florida roots, and it quickly became clear that the two had a good bond and #4 would become Jackson’s top target.
I don’t like to throw out the term “breakout candidate,” but Flowers definitely falls into that category this season. He took a little while to get adjusted to the NFL, at least from a fantasy perspective, but I think his last five games of 2023 are particularly telling:
Week 12 (at LAC) – 5 receptions (8 targets), 25 yards, TD – 1 carry, 37 yards, TD – 23.2 points
Week 14 (vs. LAR) – 6 receptions (10 targets), 60 yards, TD – 20.0 points
Week 15 (at JAX) – 1 reception (2 targets), 17 yards – 1.7 points
Week 16 (at SF) – 9 receptions (13 targets), 72 yards, TD – 22.2 points
Week 17 (vs. MIA) – 3 receptions (3 targets), 106 yards, TD – 19.6 points
Aside from a stinker in Jacksonville (it happens to everyone), Flowers was nothing short of great for fantasy managers from Weeks 12-17. He hit double-digit targets twice in that span, and aside from that Week 15 game, had at least 60 yards every week starting with the win over the Rams. When his yardage production was less than ideal (Week 12), Flowers was able to make use of his versatility to punch it into the end zone multiple times. When he really didn’t get a whole lot of targets (Week 17), he was still able to rack up points by eclipsing 100 yards receiving and taking it to the house.
What I find most promising, though, is what Zay did when Jackson was consistently feeding him the ball. Down the stretch, Flowers had at least 20 fantasy points when he was targeted 10 or more times. Although the sample size is small, that’s a promising figure for fantasy managers.
It’s often said the best predictor of future success is past success, and wide receivers who amass 800+ receiving yards in their rookie seasons generally see solid jumps in production in their sophomore campaigns. Many believe that pass-catchers go through multiple career “jump points,” for lack of a better term: between years one and two and between years four and five. If Flowers follows the career trajectory of a typical pro wideout, and there’s no reason to think he won’t, he could put up close to 1,000 yards in 2024.
Plus, it appears as if he took the offseason to develop physically. Zay looks much, much more muscular, something that will help him make more catches in traffic. This is big for a number of reasons. Suddenly, his route tree grows dramatically, with him being able to run more routes over the middle of the field. That means he’ll likely attract more targets from Lamar and will be able to haul in more of those passes. That combined with his ability to create yardage after the catch means that Flowers is in for a big year.
There are some concern, however. Although more balanced than in the Greg Roman era, the Ravens are still a run-first team, a notion that was only supported by the addition of Henry. As I mentioned in my breakdown of Lamar’s fantasy prospects, Baltimore throws the ball at a rate below league average. Jackson averaged just 28 attempts per game in 2023, which, despite being an improvement over previous seasons, really isn’t much. That isn’t a lot of targets to go around, and, naturally, wide receivers who get more targets will likely score more fantasy points. The more passes a WR has thrown his way, the higher his floor is from week to week. In addition to Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely all command targets. Zay’s size also limits what he can do in the red zone, and Jackson is known to prefer bigger targets, especially in that area of the field. Although Flowers did notch a few touchdowns from inside the ten-yard line, most of his scoring production will likely need to come from longer throws. Relying on guys who need home runs for TDs can be risky.
That’s a wrap for Day 4! Check back tomorrow for the fifth of final day of Ravens Fantasy Preview, where we’ll look at one of the most polarizing guys on this roster.
