Ravens at Chiefs: Player Prop Bets

The 2024 football season is officially upon us, and the only thing that matters on Thursday Night is coming out of Kansas City with a win and avenging the brutal loss suffered in the AFC Championship. However, with football back in our lives, the opportunity is in front of us to cash in on our guys via player prop bets. Week 1 can be tricky at times as we don’t have the benefit of leveraging team/player performances and metrics to help in our decision making. What we can look at though is how players have faired in season openers throughout their career, offseason/training camp reports, and previous matchups as these teams are very familiar with each other.

Leaning on that data, here are 5 player prop bets to consider for Thursday Nights matchup:

• Derrick Henry Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115 ESPN Bet)

o I’ve seen this line up to 64.5 on other platforms. Either way, Derrick Henry should not have a problem getting there. The Ravens are not going to make the same mistake twice when it comes to game planning vs the Chiefs. I expect them to establish their new weapon early and often in this game. Last year, in what was considered a down year for Henry, he averaged 69 yards per game. Mind you he was in an offense with a rookie quarterback, an atrocious offensive line, and no weapons on the outside allowing opposing defenses to stack the box and make him their primary focus. Now Henry is paired with Lamar Jackson. Running backs next to Lamar have historically faired very well as defenses are forced to respect Lamar’s rushing ability. We haven’t seen a running back of Derrick Henry’s stature in this position before, and I’m expecting the big running back to put up monster numbers.

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• Isaiah Likely Over 1.5 Receptions (-148 Fan Duel)

o If you have kept an eye on reports out of Ravens training camp, you’ve surely been made aware of how impressive Likely has been. That shouldn’t be of surprise to anyone who has monitored him closely throughout his career. Whenever he has been on the field, he’s been an impact player. The concern here would be with Mark Andrews returning at full health, where does Likely fit into this offense? If training camp was any indication, we should not be concerned about Likely’s snap count. He has done enough to become a player that the Ravens just simply can’t leave on the sideline. He’s that good. He gets open, has strong hands, and most importantly has developed an exceptional connection with Lamar. This number will only go up as the season rolls along, so let’s take advantage of it while we sit at 1.5.

• Justin Watson Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115 ESPN Bet)

o Hollywood Brown has been ruled out for Thursday Night’s contest and Justin Watson is listed behind him in the depth chart. Andy Reid had this to say about Watson in a recent press conference:

“Justin’s always kind of a big part of it, silently. He doesn’t say much, and he doesn’t get a lot of pubs (publicity). He’s always been a pretty big part of what we do. That part won’t change. He’ll be there running around, and even when Hollywood comes back, he’ll be in there running around. He’s a smart, skilled kid who loves to play the game. Plays hard every snap at practice and games.”

Rashee Rice was brought along slowly last year, so we can expect the same early season usage from Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy. Watson, a receiver who averaged 17 yards a catch last season, will have plenty of opportunities to eclipse this mark come Thursday night.

• Patrick Mahomes Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-115 FanDuel)

o In the six week 1 games Patrick Mahomes has started, he’s averaged 15.1 rushing yards per game. In the AFC Championship last year, Mahomes rushed for only 15 yards as well. Both teams understand it’s a long season and walking out healthy is of the upmost importance this time of year. Mahomes should stay in the pocket, and if he does pull the ball down, you can almost guarantee he will be sliding before any potential contact arrives.

• Rashod Bateman Longest Reception Over 16.5 Yards (-120 ESPN Bet)

o A personal favorite of mine, this player prop hit at an absurd clip last year, even though it was a season for Bateman that was defined by missed opportunities on shots down the field. Bateman had a great camp and will look to build on that Thursday Night. There will come a time where Lamar Jackson will look to throw the ball downfield, and don’t be surprised if he looks Bateman’s way. Bateman has a knack for getting open on intermediate/long routes and it’s only a matter of time before he and Lamar start clicking like they had been before his foot injury in 2022.