Welcome to Week 2 of the fantasy season! Week 1 was certainly eventful, with some sleepers putting up big numbers and veterans having surprising letdown games. Still, it’s just the first week of the season, and there’s no need to overreact. That said, let’s dive in!
Recap
From this week forward, I’ll start by recapping the performances of some of my previous recommendations. Ja’Lynn Polk had a disappointing Week 1, logging just six yards on one reception, good for 1.6 PPR points. He played just over half of the offensive snaps, 54%, and I expect his workload to increase in future weeks. Jacoby Brissett was solid if not unremarkable at quarterback, but New England seems to be dedicated to running the ball more. This is a situation to monitor in the coming weeks.
Rico Dowdle had a similarly disappointing performance, getting just eight carries and putting up 26 yards at a very inefficient clip. More revealing was that Ezekiel Elliot seems to be in line to handle goal line work, which significantly drops Dowdle’s value. Don’t drop him just yet, but be prepared to do so if this trend continues.
Week 2 Pickups
Isaiah Likely: TE, BAL (9.8% rostered)
The most popular name on the waiver wire this week is by far Isaiah Likely, whose performance in Kansas City was nothing short of incredible. Many considered him to be Baltimore’s TE2 heading into the season, but his 9-catch, 111-yard performance in Week 1 says otherwise. That production provided fantasy managers with a whopping 26.1 PPR points, and it could’ve been more if his feet were just a little bit smaller.
Mark Andrews out-snapped Likely (74% vs. 66%) and ran more routes (28 vs. 24), which is a good sign for managers who have #89 on their rosters, but what I find more revealing is who Lamar was looking for when it mattered most. On the game’s final drive, Jackson hit Likely multiple times and targeted him twice in the end zone. Andrews, on the other hand, was nowhere to be found (perhaps thanks in large part to drawing a ton of attention from the KC defense).
Perhaps the Ravens are just easing Andrews in after a bad car accident, but Likely’s receiving prowess is just too great to ignore. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t the first name off the waiver wire this week in most leagues.
Justice Hill: RB, BAL (3.3% rostered)
Sticking in Baltimore, Justice Hill surprisingly out-snapped free agent acquisition Derrick Henry, even outscoring him in fantasy. It looks like Hill will see a lot of work in the Ravens’ passing game, logging six receptions for 52 yards. With an offensive line that’s less than stable, Todd Monken has shown that he’s willing to turn to the screen game to create yardage, and that’s an area where a player of Hill’s skillset thrives.
Furthermore, when his primary targets weren’t available downfield, Lamar Jackson seemed prepared to check it down to the former fourth-round pick, something that happened on more than a few third downs. This is huge in PPR leagues, and if the Ravens continue to use Hill in the passing game, he could have a nice floor. Adding him to your bench could pay dividends if your starters get injured and you’re looking for a consistent option.
Keep in mind, however, game script. The Ravens trailed for much of this game, and that doesn’t seem likely to be the case going forward (they trailed for less game time than any team in 2023). When they’re ahead, it’ll be King Henry closing out the game with those punishing runs.
Greg Dortch: WR, ARI (1.6% rostered)
Dortch had a surprisingly effective game in the Cardinals’ loss to the Bills. He garnered eight targets from Kyler Murray and converted them into six receptions for 47 yards, good for 11.1 fantasy points. I expect his target share to decrease as Marvin Harrison Jr. (1.4 PPR points) gets more comfortable in Arizona’s offense, but he appears to be an option that Murray will look for often over the next few weeks. Attracting eight targets is no small feat. Plus, the Cardinals will be playing from behind often in 2024, leading into more passing plays and a greater opportunity for Dortch to contribute. Stashing him on your bench and later selling high on him could pay dividends, especially in deeper leagues.
That’s all for this week’s edition of Tanner’s Top Free Agents! Don’t do anything too drastic with your roster just yet. The first week of the season isn’t necessarily indicative of how the entire season will go. With that, don’t drop someone you rated very highly pre-draft or spent significant draft capital to acquire. Chances are you’ll be kicking yourself for that decision down the road.
Good luck on the waiver wire!
