Lamar Has Become An Elite Sack-Avoider – Can it Continue?

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 5 Games

Wow.

I lost track of how many times I screamed at the TV during the Bengals game; or how often someone texted “OH MY GOD” in the family group chat. Just an unbelievable game.

The only Ravens victory like it that I can think of, in terms of roller-coaster excitement, is the Mile High Miracle.  That one also had back-&-forth lead changes and overtime.  The 2021 win against Indy where Lamar Jackson passed for 400 also went to OT; but that one didn’t have the same punch/counterpunch tempo to it.  Just one momentum change in that game: Indy took the big lead through three quarters and then Lamar came storming back in the 4th and OT.

A recent exciting finish was the ‘21 game in Detroit where Justin Tucker kicked the NFL record walk-off Field Goal.  But that was mostly a dreary affair; all the excitement was condensed into the final minute.  Same with the crazy 2013 home win over the Vikings, when the two teams combined for five Touchdowns in the last two minutes of the game.  Through the first 58 minutes the score was 12-7: a dull game until all hell suddenly broke loose at the 2-minute warning.

This one was action-packed from the start of the 2nd quarter till the final whistle.  I’m still shaking.

Working It

Last week we talked about Lamar’s “workload,” which we defined as rush attempts + pass attempts + sacks. Last week’s game vs the Bills was one of the lightest-workload games of Lamar’s career; his lightest since 2019.  This week against the Bengals, Lamar’s 55 plays (12 rushes + 42 passes + 1 sack) tied for the 6th-highest of his career.

Lamar’s median workload as a starter has been 41 plays: 27 pass attempts, 2 sacks, 11 rushes, and one additional play somewhere in there.  Anything from 34 to 49 is the “midrange”: ⅔ of all his games fall in that zone.  So going by that, anything 50 and over is “high”.

Why is this important?  Because of the runs.  In half of his career games, Lamar has rushed 11 or more times.  That’s a LOT. For reference in terms of Greg Roman, Colin Kaepernick only had two career regular-season games with 11+ rush attempts, plus another two in the playoffs. For reference in terms of famous rushing Quarterbacks, Michael Vick averaged seven rushes per game as a starter.  Randall Cunningham averaged five.

I’m cool with it when Lamar’s running outside and is able to pick his spot for going out of bounds. It’s a high-leverage play, usually an easy first down.  But in the high-workload games, Lamar tends to do everything himself, including runs up the middle.  I think that kind of run – into the teeth of the defense, where he takes hits from linebackers and even D-linemen – that’s got to take a toll on his longevity. It must be kept to a minimum.

We don’t want Lamar to end up like Cam Newton and Andrew Luck, washed at age 29.

(Along those lines, I’m pleased that the Ravens bring in Charlie Kolar for “tush push” duties.  We don’t want Lamar anywhere near that kind of pile-up.)

I don’t have any plans to track Lamar’s workload.  Quarterbacks play: that’s what they do.  It was just notable last week because of how dramatically Derrick Henry took the load off Lamar’s shoulders.  One thing that probably is worth paying attention to is Lamar’s sacks and hits and hard tackles.

Oh, Snap

I have nothing much to say here, other than I hope the Ravens are spending some practice time drilling the Center-QB exchange.  The second aborted snap on Sunday should have cost the Ravens the game; the first one created a play that was a little too exciting for the hearts of us older fans.

Lamar is faster than other humans. He’s faster than other NFL players.  Sometimes he’s too fast for his teammates.  There are times he’s ready to throw before his receiver is ready to look; there are times he moves off a receiver just before that receiver breaks open.  Sometimes I think one of Lamar’s biggest challenges is slowing down enough to let things happen that he can take advantage of.

Do you remember the year Gary Kubiak was the Ravens Offensive Coordinator, and Justin Forsett rushed for 1200 yards?  That was back in 2014; ten years ago. Watching Forsett that year taught me how slowing down was sometimes an effective weapon for a Running Back.  Several times I saw Forsett throttle down, slot in behind his Offensive Lineman, and surf the block for a big gain, like ten or twelve yards, on a play where a less-patient back would have blasted full speed into a defender and gotten tackled. Age & skill can out-perform youth & enthusiasm.

The greatest athletes are so absurdly fast, both physically and in spatial perception/recognition, that they need to slow down to play with others.  I think on these botched snaps, Lamar moved on to scanning the coverage before he had finished catching the ball.  Real life is a little too slow for Lamar.

It’s frightening.  The Ravens have lived in Pistol & Shotgun since Lamar became the starters.  There’s no room for any uncertainty in catching snaps.

Hit the Sack

Lamar leads the league in (lowest) sack rate, at 3.23%.  That’s less than half his career sack rate of 7.14%.  Some of that is his escapability, of course.  Pass rushers come free and they can’t get him: just ask the Bengals’ Sam Hubbard.  But that’s not new.  Lamar’s always been elusive AF.  Something is new this year.

There’s a non-intuitive statistical fact about QBs who can run: they typically have high sack rates.  Not what you’d expect.  The guys with the lowest sack rates have always been the statue Quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, late-career Drew Brees, Tom Brady over 40 (but not when he was younger).  Those QBs don’t mess around with pass-rushers.  If the play isn’t there, they throw it away and come back on the next down.  The QBs who can run are way more tolerant of risk with pass rushers.  They trust their athletic ability.  And they make many tremendous plays, including on scrambles.  But they also take more sacks.

But here’s Lamar, the most elusive and “escapable” QB of all time; and in Year Seven of his career he’s suddenly cutting his sack rate in half and leading the league.  What gives?

I admit straight up that I don’t know for sure.  Theoretically it could just be random statistical variation.

To check that idea, I looked at every 5-game stretch over Lamar’s entire career as a starter.  The only time his rolling sack rate ever dipped lower than now was one week in November 2019.  We all remember the second half of 2019, of course.  Over the last ten (regular-season) games that year, Lamar was basically untouchable, He had the same sack rate over that ten-game stretch as he does this year (a hundredth of a percent higher) while throwing 25 TDs to one pick.  But that was 2019.  The Ravens had a huge tactical advantage then. Greg Roman’s offense clicked into place and the league couldn’t handle it.  The Ravens were rolling teams, putting up 34 points a game.  Things are different now.  The Ravens still run some of those plays, but the league isn’t flummoxed anymore, and the Ravens are mostly running a “normal” NFL offense.  It’s well schemed and smartly called, but it’s not groundbreaking.

So what gives?

What I think is going on is, Lamar has grown in the Todd Monken offense.  All offseason the Ravens coaching staff talked about giving Lamar more responsibility at the line of scrimmage: adjusting protections, calling plays, the whole bit.  Lamar always did some of that (yes, even under Roman) but this year it’s more.  And he’s thriving.  Monken’s offense has more and better answers against the blitz than Roman was able to get working (partially due to injuries in those years).  Lamar is using the whole toolkit.

It helps to have veteran receivers.  The 2019 starting Wide Receivers (Hollywood Brown and Miles Boykin) were in their first year; actually everyone then was in their first year in the new offense. This year’s least experienced starter in the passing game is 2nd-year man Zay Flowers.  The other Wide Receivers are in their 4th (Rashod Bateman) and 10th (Nelson Agholor) years.  Isaiah Likely is a 3rd-year man.   Mark Andrews is in his 7th season; third-down back Justice Hill in his 6th.

Those pass-catchers were ALL here last season.  They all have the benefit of continuity in a system; and the system is a pass-centric one with good answers for the blitz.  I, as a fan, have only the barest hint of what that might mean; but I bet it’s huge.  Sight-adjustments, choice routes, hot reads; being on the same page as the QB when the defense sends the blitz.  All of that takes knowledge & experience & judgement.  Veterans are inevitably better at that stuff than rookies are. This whole group, QB included, is growing into their second year in the system.

To me this is an under-reported aspect of the Ravens offensive season so far.  Sack avoidance keeps the chains moving, helps keep the offense out of dangerous down-&-distances, and limits defensive splash plays.  It’s huge.

Can it continue?  I’m gonna go way out on a limb and say “maybe.”

The Case For

Lamar’s ridiculousness has obviously played a role in staying out of sacks.  We can all think of multiple plays this season where a normal human Quarterback would have been sacked, and Lamar just danced away.  Lamar purposely got lighter this offseason for quickness and agility.  He first bulked-up in the 2020-21 offseason, to better hold position in the pocket amid poor pass protection.  He’s played “heavy” (for him) the last three seasons.  He’s probably more evasive at this lighter weight.

The play at Offensive Tackle is good now.  Ronnie Stanley is playing his best ball in several years; he looks terrific.  Anything like his All-Pro best is a huge advantage.  Roger Rosengarten has been very good as a starter these last two games.  He can really move his feet in pass-protection.

Ravens rookie RT Roger Rosengarten has played a big part in their offensive explosion since entering the starting lineup two weeks ago

Rookie OTs drafted outside of round 1 aren't supposed to start, let alone look this good pic.twitter.com/I3NuDBfHJl

— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) October 8, 2024

The interior has also played well the last two games.  Daniel Faalale looks like he has adjusted.  Tyler Linderbaum has already made the Pro Bowl and is just 24.  Patrick Mekari is sound & experienced.  The Ravens could just leave this group in place, even after Andrew Voorhees returns from his high ankle sprain.

The Case Against

It’s all a schedule mirage!  Dallas can’t play defense!  Buffalo couldn’t match the Ravens size!  Looking at the rest of the season:

• The Steelers are still on the schedule, twice.
• Myles Garrett is still on the schedule, twice.
• The Texans, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, are on the schedule.
• The Giants, with Dexter Lawrence & Brian Burns & Kayvon Thibodeaux are on the schedule.
• The Eagles with their waves of front-seven defenders are on the schedule.
• Lil’ Bro Harbs, with his Chargers and Khalil Mack & Joey Bosa & Bud Dupree, are on the schedule.

By the end of the season, you might laugh in my face if I try to sell “sack avoidance” as a strength of this Ravens offense. We’ll see.  For now it looks great.

Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

Data from PFR

Just look at this beautiful box score.  Nine players targeted; six with multiple catches; five with 3+ catches; four “Quality Starts.”  You gotta guard everyone in this offense, or the ball will find them.

Tylan Wallace has entered the chat!  His first targets of the season.  He caught a 19-yarder and a 12-yarder.

Last week we said that Flowers hadn’t had his breakout game yet.  Tick-tick-tick, BOOM.  This was the highest-yardage day of his young career.  His only other hundred-yard game was last year when the Ravens crushed the Dolphins in game 16.

Andrews also broke out.  That’s one of the most welcome developments, on a day with plenty of excitement. Still, it feels a little crazy that multiple Ravens Tight Ends caught three touchdown passes among them, and none went to Andrews.

Season stats & leaderboard

Here are your full-season stats to date:

Data from PFR

The guys with only a few targets duly take their place at the top of the Ravens YTS leaderboard, in a bit of Small Sample Size theater.  But the meat of the Ravens receiving attack is the five players with double-digit catches: Likely, Hill, Andrews, Bateman, Flowers.  As a group they have excellent efficiency numbers.

Wallace & Hill don’t have any receptions for 20+ yards: but they each have a 19-yarder.  If you lightly pencil-in a “1” in their “Expl” column, stretching the definition just a teeny bit, then all the receivers but the big backs (Derrick Henry & Patrick Ricard) have explosive receptions.  LOVE IT.  If there’s one thing I hate in 21st century NFL passing games, it’s dink-&-dunk offenses.  Dink-&-dunk is a vital tool against blitzing defenses; especially holding a lead in 4-minute offense.  But as a primary mode it’s boring and ineffective. QBs and Offensive Coordinators can pad their completion percentages with 7-yard gains on 3rd-&-10 all they want, but they’re not helping the team win.  Explosive plays make offenses go.

Flowers’s hundred-yard day was not enough to push him back on pace for a thousand-yard season.  But another couple like it might.  He currently sits at #32 in the league in receiving yards.  Likely is 7th in Success Rate.  Bateman is 28th in yards-per-target.

Lamar is 4th in the league in Passer Rating.  You’ll never believe who is #1:

Our hero, Mr. Joseph Vincent Flacco himself!  My favorite NFL columnist Mike Tanier wrote a bit about Joe this offseason, in a piece where he ranked the all-time Ravens QBs.  (He was doing all the teams over the summer.)  He talks about the period of “Is Joe Flacco elite?” memes, and wraps up with this, which I think is perfect:

Flacco’s Comeback Player of the Year 2023 season felt personally validating. Flacco may once have been a Twitter meme, but his career outlived Twitter. Suddenly, folks in the local taverns remembered graduating with his sister, or were excited to report that they saw him picking up his kids from school. Snark and derision are fleeting, but perseverance, preparedness and professionalism are truly elite skills. Criticism is easy; survival is hard.

Here’s Joe busting out a 21-yard run against the Jags:

Jamar Flaccson. pic.twitter.com/bDtOcLaNMG

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) October 6, 2024

As for the current Ravens Quarterback: Lamar is 5th in QBR, 6th in yards-per-attempt, 9th in passer rating. His 9 TD to 1 INT ratio is – well, Josh Allen’s 8-to-zero and Joe Flacco’s 5-to-zero are “better”: so good they’re undefined. But Lamar’s ratio is right after that.  Lamar’s INT rate of 0.7% is behind only Josh Allen & Flacco, who’ve thrown zero.  Remember that Lamar’s INT came off a deflection vs the Raiders, so he has been protecting the football.  Put “INT avoidance” together with “sack avoidance,” and Lamar has really limited defensive splash plays.

Lamar is also first in PFR’s weird “Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt” stat.  This is sort of a fantasy football version of Net Yards per Attempt.  Like regular “Net” it includes sacks, but then it also gives point adjustments for TDs (20 points) and INTs (-45 points).  I don’t usually pay attention to it.  But Lamar is leading in it; Joe Burrow and Allen are 2nd & 3rd.  Lamar is at 8.5; everyone else is under 8.

YTS for Quarterbacks doesn’t use that weird ANY/A.  It uses Net Yards-per-attempt, which is yards-per net of sacks.  Here is the league’s current top ten:

Data from PFR

Lamar has set a nice pace for himself:

Lamar is currently on pace to go 333-for-510 for 4,100 with 30 TDs and 3 INTs, along with 1,237 rushing yards and another 7 TDs.

His 2019 season was ridiculously efficient and he's putting up even better numbers again, in a different offense. https://t.co/AAxPWVGSNr

— Gordon McGuinness (@PFF_Gordon) October 9, 2024

Your Ravens are still the #1 overall offense by DVOA. They’re also #1 in total yards per play.  Here are the eight teams with 6+ yards-per-play:

Data from PFR

That lead of half-a-yard that the Ravens have over the rest of the league is pretty hefty.  Look how tightly clustered the rest of the top teams are, separated by a tenth.

The Ravens are 2nd in Red Zone Touchdown percentage; 3rd in 3rd-down conversions; 4th in points-per-drive; and 9th in Scoring Percentage.

Next Up: Washington Team Football!

WTF is going on with these guys??  How is Jayden Daniels so good??  How scary is Terry McLaurin, and what would he look like running around in Ravens Stadium?  Is Austin Ekeler really unstoppable in the passing game?  Is it possible that Kliff Kingsbury can actually coach?  How do you pronounce “Olamide Zaccheaus?”

Answers to these questions and more on Sunday!  Personally, I’m not sure I’m ready for a world where the Deadskins are actually good.