The Commanders are Coming!

Game Planning for The Commanders

Defense

Cut Off Daniels’ Escape Routes

NFL defenses have greeted Commanders QB Jayden Daniels with the same welcome to the pros as every other rookie quarterback: relentless blitzing. Daniels has been blitzed on 37.7% of his drop backs this season, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.

His performance has varied – he crumbled against the near-50% blitz rate of the Buccaneers in Week 1, but consistently evaded pressure for big plays against the Browns in Week 1. Daniels has completed 7 of 8 passes for 113 yards on scrambles this season to go along with a league-leading 244 rushing yards on such drop backs. His 29.5 EPA on scrambles is the most in the NFL in 2024 and the most by a rookie through five weeks since tracking began in 2016

As a result, Zach Orr will need to design his blitz packages to account for Daniels’ scrambling ability, using delayed blitzes and stunts that cut off rushing lanes as they materialize, similar to how the Ravens handled Josh Allen in Week 4.

That will require discipline from all parts of Baltimore’s pass rush. The outside linebackers need to contain Daniels off the edge and force him to step up into the pocket, while the interior linemen need to take up space and keep him from running right through the line of scrimmage when pressured. Free blitzers must remain controlled in their pursuit to avoid running right by the quarterback.

Attacking Daniels’ blindside will be crucial to converting pressures into sacks, which means targeting Commanders’ rookie left tackle Brandon Coleman. He has allowed a team-high eight pressures in just 74 pass-blocking snaps since taking over for Cornelius Lucas in Week 4, per Pro Football Focus. That’s not just an opportunity for Odafe Oweh, but a chance for Orr to scheme pressure towards the left side and force Coleman into tough decisions against multiple oncoming blitzers.

Daniels has carried his college tendency to hold the ball behind the line of scrimmage into the pros, so closing down on him will be crucial to taking away the explosive element of Washington’s offense.

The Commanders’ 21.4% screen rate is their answer to the blitz, so defenders on the outside will need to get off blocks and make tackles to prevent yards after the catch. Orr can also deploy sim pressures with rushers dropping into coverage off the line of scrimmage to force a quick pass with defenders already swarming for the tackle.

Stay Overtop of Vertical Routes

It’s no secret that the Ravens have been gashed by deep passes this season, allowing 40 explosive pass plays through five weeks.

Zach Orr deserves a little grace; he’s a first-time defensive coordinator who faced four top-10 quarterbacks in his first four games calling plays after a defensive brain drain in Baltimore during the offseason. Things cool off in the next four games, starting with Daniels and the Commanders, who target receivers 10 or more yards downfield just 29% of the time.

However, Daniels has been efficient on such throws, ranking second in the NFL with 38.6 total EPA, while the Ravens have allowed 49.4 EPA in the same situation, second-most of any defense.

On tape, the Ravens’ struggles stopping the deep ball have come from busted coverages in which defenders don’t get in their drops quickly enough to close throwing windows and locate the ball in the air.

The Ravens’ secondary simply needs to have better discipline in hitting their depths in zone drops, keeping plays in front of them instead of getting beat over the top. That will be especially important against Terry McLaurin, who has run a vertical route on 41.1% of his routes in 2024, the most since his rookie season. He’s only reeled in a third of his targets, but his 158 receiving yards rank 10th in the NFL on vertical routes to go along with two touchdowns.

This will be an important game for Brandon Stephens to step up against vertical routes down the sideline, as he has struggled to turn and locate the ball in coverage this season. His coverage has largely been excellent, but his struggles at the catch point led to consistent yards for Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase last week.

The Commanders will try to exploit the Ravens’ weakness with play action, which they run at a 27.4% clip, fourth in the NFL. Orr has consistently used Roquan Smith to mug the A gap at the line of scrimmage before dropping into coverage. When Smith sees play action from that alignment, he gets more sucked into the run-fake than when he aligns in a traditional off-ball position. Smith isn’t a major threat to blitz – 13 of his 28 pass rushes this year came in Week 4, with an average of just 3.5 blitzes across Baltimore’s other four games. If he’s not blitzing, his alignment places a huge burden on him to close the middle of the field from a disadvantageous starting point, so Orr should move him off the line of scrimmage in obvious passing situations and use other players in his pressure looks.

Crowd the Middle

The Commanders have been exceptional at running the ball this year, with a league-leading 0.22 EPA/rush and a 48.2% success rate that ranks fifth. The Ravens, meanwhile, have been the league’s best rushing defense, limiting opponents to just 3.1 yards per play and 60.4 rushing yards per game.

Washington’s success rushing the ball has largely come before contact, averaging 2.23 yards before contact per attempt, fourth-most in the league. Their 3.07 yards after contact per attempt is middling, however, and the Commanders won’t have Brian Robinson – who ranks ninth in the NFL with 259 yards after contact – on Sunday.

The Ravens’ prowess against the run has come with a league-high rate of 61.0% of plays with more defenders than blockers in the box, a scenario the Commanders have rarely faced this season. They’ve faced light boxes on 56.0% of their rushing plays this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL, while rushing against stacked boxes just 15.5% of the time.

With Robinson out, the Commanders will lose almost a third of their explosive rushing output, giving the Ravens a clear advantage on the ground. With stacked boxes, they can contact Washington’s ballcarriers closer to the line of scrimmage and slow down their rushing game.

Daniels’ rushing ability will remain an X-factor, but the Ravens should have the answer to this, too. Practicing against Lamar Jackson should help, but Baltimore’s defensive line put on a run-stopping clinic against the Bengals by maintaining gap discipline and letting linebackers flow downhill to make stops. Just 17.5% of Daniels’ rushing attempts have gone between the tackles, so linebackers will need to set a firm edge and scrape over the top to prevent Daniels from breaking loose outside.

[Related Article: Commanders at Ravens Bold Predictions]

Offense

Force Them into Base

The Commanders have allowed 2.1 yards per carry before contact and a 20.9% explosive run rate this season, both bottom-two in the league, setting up the Ravens for another big day on the ground.

ESPN’s Mina Kimes detailed how the Ravens have used multiple tight-end sets to destroy opposing nickel defenses, which is what the Commanders usually like to run. They stacked the box at just an 8.7% rate, which will give the already-potent Baltimore rushing attack a clear advantage with Derrick Henry in the backfield.

Washington almost exclusively matches 12 personnel with nickel. That could be a problem against Baltimore, who have been fantastic running the ball out of their two tight end sets.

Previewed Week 6 with @TampaBayTre:

🎧: https://t.co/lOszPjfOsP

📺: https://t.co/zX8V45z7xT pic.twitter.com/7iGW0V7E8y

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) October 10, 2024

The Ravens lead the league with a 31.4% usage of 12 personnel, per NGS relying mostly on Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews while mixing in Charlie Kolar. That doesn’t even include the time when Patrick Ricard is on the field, giving the Ravens a combined 550 pounds in the backfield with Henry.

Teams have still matched the Ravens’ 12 personnel with nickel on 76.7% of snaps, compared to a league average of 40.9%, knowing that Andrews and Likely can hurt them through the air. If Washington does the same, Baltimore can hammer them on the ground until the Commanders switch back to base personnel, giving the Ravens a matchup advantage through the air.

That’s where Todd Monken can go into his formational bag, using inverted looks to either force the Commanders into man coverage or burn them with linebackers trying to cover wide receivers. The Ravens lined up Ricard on the closed side of the formation against the Bengals to occupy a cornerback and open up a better matchup elsewhere.

Pick your poison, Washington. Either way, you’re going to get burned.

Pushing the Edge

Washington has largely relied on Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne to win in the trenches to stop the run with their light boxes. The Ravens, meanwhile, run the ball outside the tackles 57.6% of the time, setting them up to attack a weak Commanders edge group.

Ronnie Stanley is questionable for Sunday’s matchup, but he should be good to go in another key role leading the way on outside runs for Henry. That’s the bread-and-butter of this Ravens offense, but Monken has plenty of other changeups to attack the edge on the ground and through the air.

Most of those involved Lamar Jackson, who ranks eighth in the NFL with 363 rushing yards and second with 6.3 yards per carry. Just 34.0% of his runs have come inside the tackles, a result of designed runs stressing edge defenders and scrambles outside of the pocket. Jackson also rushes against a stacked box just 9.4% of the time, so a spread-out Commanders defense will give him plenty of opportunities to pull the ball and find space of his own. However, the Ravens still haven’t built Jackson’s legs into their passing game, relying on them to avoid sacks and extend plays rather than force defenses into difficult decisions.

Scrambling will certainly be a factor – Jackson has been sacked on less than 10% of his pressures this season, leading the NFL, while the Commanders have converted 28.3% of their pressures into sacks, the second-highest rate in the league. The two-time MVP will need to continue his unreal elusiveness and smart decision-making behind the line of scrimmage to avoid negative plays, but Monken can harness those skills into additional weapons for the offense.

The Ravens’ use of play action has jumped upward this season, but they still aren’t using Jackson on bootlegs and other designed rollouts to put flat defenders in a bind with receivers behind them. Jackson can either tuck and run or find an open window downfield, which he’s done at a very high rate this year.

This plan of attack won’t just limit the impact of Allen and Payne up the middle; it will tire them out throughout the game and leave Washington at a disadvantage in the fourth quarter.

Bunch Formations to Work Open Receivers

Of course, there’s still potential for this game to turn into another shootout, in which case the Ravens’ personnel won’t get the Commanders out of nickel in obvious passing situations.

Washington’s pass defense has allowed opposing offenses to be efficient this year, surrendering 0.12 EPA/pass, fifth highest in the league. They’ve especially struggled 10+ yards downfield, where they’ve forced a tight window pass on just 15.9% of targets, fourth lowest in the NFL.

Jackson, meanwhile, has dominated when targeting open receivers with a league-high 46.0 EPA. That is largely due to Monken’s ability to force mismatches with his personnel, but if the Ravens are stuck in passing situations, he’ll need to get creative to free up his receivers.

He could once again turn to the use of bunch formations to scheme up free releases and favorable matchups for his wideouts. This is where inverted looks can come into play, moving Andrews or Likely to the outside of a bunch formation with Zay Flowers aligned on the inside.

That will give Flowers opportunities to continue his vertical route tree expansion this season, but his career-high 111 receiving yards last week will lead to extra attention for the second-year wideout.

Rashod Bateman will then be able to excel in his role as an elite separator on the opposite side of these bunch formations. With the Commanders’ focus on the run game, the tight ends, and Flowers, Bateman should see plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities, the likes of which he has dominated this season.

From PFF: "Rashod Bateman has created separation on a league-high 72.73% of snaps against press coverage. The next-closest receiver is at 61.54% after five weeks."

Bateman had 8 targets Sunday. That's progress. Focus should be on getting him even more involved. https://t.co/lMqlLebWnr

— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) October 9, 2024

His improved rapport with Jackson has been apparent throughout the year, building to a season-high eight targets, four catches, and 58 receiving yards for Bateman last week. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but it’s a strong target share in the Ravens’ offense and showcases the combination of efficiency and explosiveness that Bateman can add to the offense.

All advanced stats courtesy of NextGen Stats unless otherwise noted.