After each season and before the next one, every NFL team experiences movement in their roster. Some will change and morph more than others – such are the ebbs and flows of team depth charts in the salary cap era.
The Ravens have 23 restricted or unrestricted free agents to deal with this offseason. I’m not a geometry major like Phil Simms but I do know how to work my hp12C calculator and 23 free agents represents slightly more than 43% of the Ravens 53 man roster.
That’s a ton of potential change.
Some of the free agents are of the restricted variety which means that the Ravens can control whether those players stay or not. Among the restricted free agents (“RFA’s”) are: Tony Pashos; Ovie Mughelli; Daniel Wilcox; Musa Smith; Jarret Johnson; Aubrayo Franklin and Aaron Elling.
Now just to clarify, a RFA is "any Veteran player with three or more accrued seasons but less than five accrued seasons (or less than four accrued seasons in any capped year.). At the expiration of each RFA’s contract, he is free to negotiate and sign with any team with certain caveats and to help explain these caveats, we’ll defer to our friends at AskTheCommish.com.
The player’s original team maintains the First Refusal Right if the team tenders a contract offer of one year at $275,000 (or some slightly larger sum as defined by the league) for players with 3 accrued seasons or $325,000 (or some slightly larger sum as defined by the league) for players with four accrued seasons in uncapped years.
The player’s original team maintains the Right of First Refusal and Draft Selection at the Player’s Original Draft Round (from the team with which he signs) if the team tenders an offer of one year at $605,000 OR at least 110% of the player’s prior year’s salary — whichever is greater.
The player’s original team maintains the Right of First Refusal and First Round Draft Selection (from the team with which he signs) if the team tenders an offer of one year at $1.318 million OR at least 110% of the player’s prior year’s salary — whichever is greater.
The player’s original team maintains the Right of First Refusal and First Round Draft Selection and Third Round Draft Selection (both from the team with which he signs) if the team tenders an offer of one year at $1.758 million OR at least 110% of the player’s prior year’s salary — whichever is greater.
In the event a Prior Club withdraws its Qualifying Offer, the RFA immediately becomes an UFA.
There is one other kind of free agent, which isn’t really very "free" at all. That is the Exclusive Rights Free Agent (ERFA). Such a player has no more than two accrued seasons in the NFL and may only sign with his prior team, provided, of course, that the team extends a minimum qualifying offer to the player.
With this in mind, let’s consider the Ravens’ RFA’s. Mughelli and Johnson are both 4th round picks and Franklin and Pashos are fifth round picks. All more than likely be offered no more than the one year tender of $605,000. It’s unlikely that any team would sign them for more and give up a fourth or fifth round pick to boot. And speaking of boot or lack thereof, Aaron Elling won’t have to unpack his suitcase. His likelihood of staying is about as remote as a touchback from Elling.
That leaves Wilcox and Smith. Wilcox will likely stay but in 2005 he was utilized much less as a tight end and was reduced in large part to simply a special teams player. He’ll probably stick but for a number at or slightly higher than the minimum since he is an undrafted player.
Now comes the hard part – the unrestricted free agents (“UFA’s”).
They include: Jamal Lewis, Patrick Johnson, Randy Hymes, Darnell Dinkins, Anthony Wright, Chester Taylor, Anthony Weaver, Maake Kemoeatu, Tommy Polley, Bart Scott, Chad Williams, Will Demps, Dale Carter, Deion Sanders and Dave Zastudil.
Immediately from that list, you can knock off Johnson, Wright, Taylor or Lewis, Polley or Scott, Dale Carter and Deion Sanders. That’s 6 players taken from the 53 man roster. It will be interesting to see what the Ravens offer Randy Hymes. While he has the physicality to be an effective third or fourth receiver, his mental lapses have frustrated the coaching staff. The development of Hymes and Devard Darling (assuming Darling makes the team in 2006) could define the coaching abilities of newly hired receivers coach Mike Johnson.
Darnell Dinkins is likely to return at a price commensurate with blue light specials. Anthony Wright is as good as gone but after him, it gets a bit dicey. Will Demps while injured was hardly missed in the secondary yet his absence from special teams was noticeable. But it wouldn’t be prudent for the Ravens to re-sign Demps at the scale he was paid in 2005 ($1.3M) and it’s unlikely that Demps will settle for anything less. Chad Williams was exposed as a starter yet remains a productive dime back. He will likely return if his asking price is relatively reasonable, say the low to mid six figure range.
Now the tough decisions…
With Dan Cody returning, it is unlikely that both Bart Scott and Tommy Polley will return although it is likely that one will be in a Ravens uniform in 2006. If the developing situation with Ray Lewis comes to a shocking conclusion that includes his departure, then both linebackers could return. Scott will be the more difficult signing. Arguably he is a better and certainly a more versatile player than Edgerton Hartwell and Hartwell was well overpaid by the Falcons in the open market. Granted Hartwell was injured for most of 2005 but even prior to the injury, he wasn’t as productive as the Falcons expected. Perhaps GM’s around the league could fear that Scott in a non-purple color might not be as productive. A look at several former Ravens defenders including Lional Dalton, Duane Starks, Kim Herring, Corey Harris and Marques Douglas might signal that defensive productivity of such players diminishes outside of the Ravens’ defensive architecture.
Anthony Weaver is a solid albeit unspectacular defensive end who is a great team guy and one who should return for a number that on average hovers around the middle tender for RFA’s. Maake Kemoeatu’s return could be predicated upon the Ravens draft and/or their willingness to find a free agent DT who can create inside pressure, command double teams and collapse the pocket. Kemo was productive at times in 2005 yet his consistency leaves much to be desired. Dave Zastudil is
coming off his best season and he should stick around. It’s not often that punters ranked 11th in the league in gross average, 21st in net average and tied for last in punts inside the 20 (11) have much negotiating leverage.
Which brings us to the position of tailback and currently the Ravens don’t have one. Chester Taylor will want to go somewhere where he can be the featured back and he hasn’t proven that he can do it over the course of a 16 game season. He’ll be gone. Jamal Lewis has proven that he can get it done over the course of a season yet question marks surround the 2003 Offensive Player of the Year. At this point, the franchise tag seems likely for Jamal although one could argue that $6 to 7 million is a ton to pay for a back that finished 21st in rushing yards in 2005.
Teams can officially designate Franchise Players between Feb 8, 2006 and Feb 23, 2006 and free agency officially begins on March 3. A team has until March 16 to work out a long term deal with its Franchise Player. The 2006 NFL Draft is on April 29, 2006. It is possible that the Ravens could draft a RB after tagging Lewis and later rescind the tag provided Lewis hasn’t already signed it. If the tag is rescinded, the Ravens will forfeit the right to use it on another player in 2006.
Not even the Ravens know at this point how many of the 23 free agents will stay or go. Clearly it’s a very fluid situation yet it’s safe to say that the team you know as the Ravens today will be no less than 20% different in 2006. To put that in perspective, sit down with your four closest neighbors. One of you will move out of State in 2006.
That’s the way of the world in the NFL.
