Ten wins; it’s that magic number every NFL team strives for because that number equals a playoff spot. Only one team that had ten wins in the last five years, the 2003 Miami Dolphins, did not reach the post season.
The 2005 season was a huge disappointment for Ravens players and fans alike as the team finished with a 6-10 record. Did you ever stop to think how far away the Ravens were from becoming a playoff team in 2005? Sure, it’s obvious they were four wins shy, but exactly why were the Ravens a 6-10 team last year and what areas need drastic improvement this year to reach the magic number ten?
I started wondering myself and began to do a little digging. I wanted to see what the 2005 playoff teams did better than the Ravens and to what degree. First let me explain the theory behind the analysis. As a fan, I wanted to know where the Ravens weaknesses were and how much worse they really were compared to all the teams that made the playoffs in 2005. In all sports, not just football, winning teams are better at certain aspects of the game than losing teams and I wanted to define those aspects and then determine how far the 2006 Ravens need to go to close those gaps.
This article analyzes the disparity in key statistical categories between the 2005 Ravens and the twelve teams that made the playoffs. I compiled stats on Offense, Defense and Special Teams and found the average of the 2005 playoff teams. I then compared those averages to the stats of the 2005 Ravens. I think some, if not many of the comparisons, might surprise you. The Ravens struggled mightily on Offense in 2005 so let’s start there.
The table below lists the five “best” offensive categories for the Ravens in 2005 compared to the playoff teams’ average. We’ll call this the “Good” list.
|
Statistic
|
2005 Playoff Teams’ AVG
|
2005 Ravens
|
% Difference (+/-)
|
|
Time of Possession
|
31:08
|
30:22
|
-2%
|
|
Pass Completion %
|
61.2%
|
59.6%
|
-3%
|
|
3rd Down Conversion %
|
40.9%
|
39.1%
|
-5%
|
|
Passing YDS/Game
|
214.1
|
193.1
|
-11%
|
|
Total Offense
|
340.2 YDS/Game
|
293.3 YDS/Game
|
-16%
|
** Since the Chicago Bears were such a statistical anomaly in 2005 their stats were not included in the average with the remaining eleven teams on offense. In other words, the Bears were Bell-Curve busters!
Like a Ravens’ Red-zone possession in 2005 the offensive numbers go down hill quickly. Check out the second table…we’ll call this one the “Bad” list.
|
Statistic
|
2005 Playoff Teams’ AVG
|
2005 Ravens
|
% Difference (+/-)
|
|
Avg. Yards/Completion
|
11.5
|
9.2
|
-25%
|
|
Rushing Yard/Game
|
126.1
|
100.3
|
-26%
|
|
Penalties
|
109
|
139
|
-27%
|
|
Total Red Zone Possessions
|
55
|
42
|
-31%
|
|
QB Rating
|
95.2
|
71.75
|
-33%
|
** Since the Chicago Bears were such a statistical anomaly in 2005 their stats were not included in the average with the remaining eleven teams on offense. In other words, the Bears were Bell-Curve busters!
Do you see a pattern here? Brace yourself because the table below is nasty and we’ll call this one the “Ugly” list.
|
Statistic
|
2005 Playoff Teams’ AVG
|
2005 Ravens
|
% Difference (+/-)
|
|
Sacks Allowed
|
28.3
|
42
|
-33%
|
|
Pts./Game
|
24.5
|
16.6
|
-48%
|
|
Red Zone TD%
|
60%
|
39%
|
-54%
|
|
Turnover Ratio
|
+ 11.9
|
– 10
|
-220%
|
|
Held Under 20 Pts
|
5 times
|
13 times
|
-260%
|
** Since the Chicago Bears were such a statistical anomaly in 2005 their stats were not included in the average with the remaining eleven teams on offense. In other words, the Bears were Bell-Curve busters!
Can you feel the pain from the “Ugly” list? If the 2006 Ravens want to have any hope of reaching 10 wins they will need to make major improvement in many offensive categories…especially the ones listed in the last table. Decreasing the number of turnovers and allowing fewer sacks should lead to longer drives. Longer drives should lead to more Red Zone possessions. With a veteran QB the Red Zone TD conversion percentage should improve. Better conversion in the Red Zone will lead to more points per game…and that means more wins!
I will be watching and tracking to see if the numbers get better. Let’s hope the “Age of McNairius” gets things moving in the right direction. Check back soon for the analysis of the 2005 Ravens Defense and Special Teams.
