Street Talk

BEHIND THE NUMBERS: Q4 REPORT CARD ~ OFFENSE

by Scot Kleinfeld

January 10, 2007
4:00 am

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Itâ€™s playoff time and letâ€™s see how the Ravens compare against the other contenders. The numbers have improved slightly from the last report card, but there are still some disturbing trends BTN would like to see remedied during the run to the Super Bowl.

In case you missed the previous articles reviewing the first, second and third quarters of the season, let me explain how these statistics were created.

This article analyzes the disparity in key statistical categories between the 2006 Ravens and the eleven other playoff teams in the NFL. I compiled the Offensive numbers and found the average of the 2006 playoff teams. I then compared those averages to the stats of the 2006 Ravens through the sixteen regular season games.

The table below lists the four "best" offensive categories for the Ravens through the regular season. Weâ€™ll call this the "Good" list.

OFFENSE: The Good
Statistic	2006 Playoff teams average	2006 Ravens	% Difference (+ / -)
Turnover ratio	+ 4.2	+ 17	+ 404%

Sacks allowed	29.2	17	+ 71.8%

Time of possession	30:55	32:48	+ 6.1%

Pass completion %	60.8%	62.6%	+ 2.9%

The numbers below wonâ€™t prove to be the undoing of the offense; the Ravens are very close to the average of the playoff teams. Check out the "Bad" list.

OFFENSE: The Bad
Statistic	2006 Playoff teams average	2006 Ravens	% Difference (+ / -)
Pass yards per game	220.9	214.7	– 2.8%

3rd down^{conversion %}	^42.9%	^41.2%	^{– 4.1%}

^{QB Rating}	^86.2	^82.5	^{– 4.5%}

^{Total Offense}	^343.3	^317.0	^{– 8.3%}

The Ravens offense will not be successful in the playoffs unless they limit penalties and increase the Red Zone TD conversion percentage. The Ravens are dead last of all the playoff teams in the Red Zone.

^{OFFENSE: The Ugly}
^Statistic	^{2006 Winning teams average}	^{2006 Ravens}	^{% Difference (+ / -)}
^{Points per game}	^24.3	^22.1	^{– 9.9%}

^Penalties	^93.9	¹⁰⁹	^{– 16.1%}

^{Rush yards per game}	^122.4	^102.3	^{– 19.6%}

^{Red Zone TD %}	^55.6%	^42.3%	^{– 31.4%}

Scot Kleinfeld

Scot is a Baltimore native, a Towson University graduate, and has followed sports since the early 1980's. Scot likes to go inside the numbers and get the real "411" on the wins and losses, hence his Behind The Numbers column. Besides being an avid sports fan, Scot has been involved with televison sports production as an Associate Producer since 1993 for WMAR, ESPN, ESPNU,ESPN2, and the former Home Team Sports network. In addition to his television work Scot has written articles for Baltimore Magazine, Lacrosse Magazine and Patuxent Publishing. These experiences make him a natural as the creator of the Media Watchdog, another of SK's fine contributions.