While watching the Pro Bowl (yes I’m one of those) I couldn’t help but think that this could be the very last time that Adalius Thomas represents the Baltimore Ravens. That’s a sad and sobering thought.
But it just might be a necessary reality.
We’ve been reminded often of Ozzie Newsome’s philosophy “right player, right price.†Never will that philosophy be put to the test more than with AD this offseason.
During the Pro Bowl game there were several plays during which five Ravens’ defenders were on the field at the same time. Ed Reed, Chris McAlister, Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott and AD were all defending for the AFC. One could argue and probably find support that Kelly Gregg and Trevor Pryce should be in Honolulu with their teammates on the field.
Yet despite a near embarrassment of riches on defense, the Ravens couldn’t win a playoff game this season. Despite all of that defensive talent over the years, they haven’t won a home playoff game since December 31, 2000.
The Ravens are top heavy in defensive talent. It’s been that way for a long time and the formula isn’t working if championships or even playoff wins are your benchmark. If the Ravens were a mutual fund, you might be calling for a new fund manager or at the very least, a more balanced fund.
Re-signing AD might throw the fund even more out of whack.
The Ravens had the league’s top overall defense in ’06 and the best scoring defense. They were among the defensive leaders in nearly all major defensive statistical categories. For the most part, they stayed healthy. Even if they could duplicate the effort in ’07, is that enough to advance further?
Chances are, the answer is no.
Plus even to remain status quo talent wise, the Ravens will have to spend even more on the defense just to accommodate AD. That means fewer dollars to balance the offense which is screaming for help in the rushing department.
In the era of the salary cap, teams can’t have it all. They need balance. The most difficult teams to compete against are those that can beat you in a variety of ways. Can that be said of the Ravens?
Terrell Suggs will be 24 years old when the 2007 season begins, Bart Scott will be 27. Adalius Thomas will be 30. What if a heavy investment in AD prevents the Ravens from re-signing either of those Pro Bowl defenders, both with more upside and longevity? It could happen. It likely will happen should the Ravens overspend to keep AD. Such overspending might clamp down the offense as well.
If we learned anything about the Ravens offense in 2006, it’s that they clearly need to run the ball better. How will that happen if they don’t invest in offensive linemen and a new running back? How will that happen if the cap space isn’t there because it was allocated to the defense and Adalius Thomas? How will they even approach their success of ‘06 in ‘07?
And let’s face it, ‘06 wasn’t good enough, was it?
Without AD, the Ravens defense can still be very good. Can they be the No. 1 defense again? Maybe, maybe not. Do they have to be the best defense to be better as a team? Probably not.
Since the season following the Ravens Super Bowl XXXV win, the Patriots have won 12 playoff games and 3 Super Bowls to the Ravens 1 playoff win. The Patriots highest defensive ranking during that period was sixth. Their highest offensive ranking was sixth. On average during this time the Patriots have ranked 10th offensively and 12th defensively. They have been a model of consistency as far as NFL franchises go. They prioritize the greatest good of the team over what is best for any individual player. That’s why they’ve allowed players like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy and Deion Branch to walk. They do not create emotional ties to players.
The Ravens almost certainly can figure out a way to keep AD regardless of his asking price. But if they do and in part mortgage the team’s future, don’t be surprised by more of the one and done efforts in the post season assuming they are that fortunate.
Look there’s no denying that AD is a highly desirable player for many reasons. But the Ravens develop productive linebackers the way the Atlanta Braves produce pitchers. They can fill in with the “right player, right price.†No, it won’t be AD but it still can be a productive player while preserving some of the cap for needed repairs to the offense.
How the Ravens handle AD might be the toughest decision they will have faced in the franchise’s 11 year history. From the players to the coaches to the fans to the Ravens’ opponents, there’s little to find wrong with AD. It’s easy to get attached and clearly keeping AD would be the fan friendly thing to do.
It’s a tough, tough decision. Perhaps Steve Bisciotti tipped his hand on January 30th during the State of the Ravens address.
“We’re not going to run this team with windows opening and closing. Our goal is to figure out how to run this team so that that window never closes. I think that we’re getting closer to feeling confident that we can do that based on what we’re all learning about it, and actually getting the coaches involved in understanding the cap and the implications. Because coaches in these meetings just say ‘I can’t live without this guy. I can’t live without this guy. I can’t live without this guy.’ And yet every year we live without some of those guys, and we turn around and do well again.â€
Investing big dollars in Adalius Thomas might simply maintain the status quo or worse, it could close a window.
To get better and go deeper into the playoffs, as painful as it might be, it could be time to let AD go.
