Pro Football24x7’s Spotlight Fantasy Running Back
Every fantasy football player knows Steven Jackson and that he is included in every top ten list of projected fantasy running backs that has been published this year.
In the drafts I have been able to poll so far, his average draft position has been 5th over all. The earliest I have seen him taken has been third, the latest 10th. He is on everyone’s radar, the reason he is my spotlight running back is that I have him 2nd over all. No disrespect intended to Matt Forte, Michael Turner, or Maurice Jones-Drew but Jackson will have a better fantasy season than all of them, and even has a good chance of putting up better statistics than Adrian Peterson, who does though still reside on top of my running back board.
The reasoning for his lofty rise on my board, a combination of a few things, first the fact the Rams will center their offense around him, no surprise there. The second, the Rams made a couple of subtle personal moves that will bolster Jackson’s production. The third, he has history on his side.
In 2008 the Rams scored 20 or more points in only three games. Marc Bulger returns at quarterback and his play has fallen far from his elite status just a couple of seasons ago. In Bulger’s defense, his pass protection has been terrible and he has lost almost all of his veteran, reliable receivers from his elite days, with Torry Holt leaving for Jacksonville, the last remaining, Steven Jackson. Bulger has some decent young receivers, led by Donnie Avery, but development into fantasy stardom is at least a couple of years away. New offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur wants to pattern the 2009 Rams after the Eagles offense, they center it around Brian Westbrook, the Rams will do the same with Steven Jackson.
To go along with force feeding the ball to Jackson, they have given him 2 new key assets to make this offensive scheme work. First they signed proven lead blocker Mike Karney from the Saints. The Rams have not used a blocking fullback since 2006, the year Jackson led the NFL in combined yards from scrimmage. They also added blocking specialist TE Billy Bajema from San Francisco. Jackson will not only be catching Bulger passes, but will also score fantasy points as the short yardage and goal line back in two TE sets. Jackson will be the proto type every down back.
Adrian Peterson, although the most talented running back in football, comes out on passing downs, he caught just twenty one passes last year, Turner had just six receptions, needless to say he also comes out on passing downs. Jones-Drew, a great fantasy scorer, does not have the size to be an every down back, he will have a great year, but he will have to give away carries to make it through an entire season healthy, even with no Fred Taylor. I see Matt Forte as the only other player that can challenge Jackson for the most touches in 2009 by a running back.
As far as history goes, Jackson with a fullback leading the way led the NFL in yards from scrimmage in 2006 his 2,334 combined yards were the fifth highest in NFL history. In standard fantasy scoring he scored 20.5 fantasy points a game. For comparison purposes, the consensus top fantasy pick this year Adrian Peterson scored 15.5 points a game in 2008, using the same scoring format.
The table is set for Jackson not only to repeat his 2006 season, but the record for combined touches of 492 in a season set by running back James Wilder with the 1984 Buccaneers, (Jackson had 436 in 2006), is within reach. The Buccaneers were 6-10 that year, with journeyman quarterback Steve DeBerg behind center and young receivers. Tampa Bay had to have Wilder put the offense on his back. The 2009 Rams have a similar situation, Jackson will have to carry the load, he is capable of reaching or at least coming close to Wilder’s record, with that he will gain even more yardage than he did in 2006, and along with that score more fantasy points than he did that year.
The key of course is can Jackson stay healthy, some thing he has not done since 2006, my football intuition says yes.
