In football, big plays lead to big expectations. After the Ravens’ 37-7 shellacking of the of the Rams in St. Louis last Sunday, the expectations for the Ravens’ 2011 season burst through the roof of the Edward Jones Dome, sailed over the Gateway Arch, and headed straight for Indianapolis.
Yes, Indianapolis, as in, the site of the next Super Bowl (you can figure out the Roman numerals involved – they should add up to 45).
True, this is only late September. Many season-altering events can, and often do, happen.
Perhaps, though, one of those season-altering events occurred in St. Louis last Sunday.
Lee Evans, the speedy wide receiver pick up for the Ravens, was injured. That could have been a negative, exposing the Ravens’ lack of a disciplined deep-threat wide receiver to keep opposition safeties off of the Ravens’ short passing targets and running game.
But Torrey Smith, who fans last saw burning the turf at Byrd Stadium for the University of Maryland Terrapins under Coach Ralph Friedgen (by the way, Maryland "AD" Kevin Anderson, how is your replacement coach doing? Yes, I put "AD" in quotes because Anderson seems to take his orders from Under Armour’s Kevin Plank) exploded onto the scene. Three touchdowns in his first three receptions – an NFL record.
And Smith didn’t stop there. In all, he finished with 152 receiving yards. The Ravens now have depth at the "deep" wide receiver slot, and can stretch opposing defenses with either Evans or Smith.
Now, that’s a season-altering event.
Not excited yet?
No problem. There were plenty of eye-popping performances for the Ravens.
There was Joe Flacco’s career-record 389 yards passing, with zero interceptions and those three touchdowns to Smith.
And the offensive line’s crushing performance, opening holes to the tune of 6.5 yards per carry (including Flacco’s scrambling of 3.2 yards per carry).
And the defense? As expected, they rebounded in form, registering five sacks (by five different defenders) of Rams’ quarterback Sam Bradford, as well as six tackles for lost yardage (linebacker Terrell Suggs and defensive tackle Cory Redding leading the way with two "stuffs" each).
There was also cornerback Lardarius Webb’s interception and nose tackle Haloti Ngata’s contract celebration touchdown off of a recovered fumble (forced by ageless Ray Lewis).
The nay-sayers and nitpickers will point to place kicker Billy Cundiff’s two missed field goals, and Flacco’s fumbling, as reasons not to take mental flights of fancy.
In response, I invite those groups to look at the Ravens’ competition for the AFC crown.
The Patriots, showing a shocking lack of faith in their running game, threw their way to blowing a 21-point lead at Buffalo.
Joe Namath is already raking Rex Ryan over the coals for making the Jets overconfident. This coming from the man who "guaranteed" a Super Bowl win.
The Steelers held on for a three-point win at decimated Indianapolis, and have already received their beat-down from the Ravens.
Buffalo is 3-0, but has an untested (in big games, at least) Harvard man playing quarterback.
San Diego is still coached by Norv Turner, who is the human blockade for the Chargers’ entry into the Super Bowl.
Oakland is allowing a whopping 27 points per game (and that’s before Tom Brady arrives next weekend), and Tennessee is scoring only 19 points per game.
And is anyone taking the Cleveland Browns seriously?
Face it – at this point in the season, early as it is, the Ravens are the most dominant team in the AFC.
The Ravens still need to fine-tune some aspects of their game, starting with the passing attack. Despite all of the heroics in St. Louis, the Ravens’ offensive line is still yielding an average of two sacks per game. Of course, as discussed in last week’s column, this is part of the newly-formed line’s "getting to know you" process.
And, despite his career-high performance, Flacco’s passer rating is a "B-level" 91.9. Flacco is still not an elite quarterback in the NFL, although he is making strides toward becoming a better quarterback against elite defenses.
Baltimore does have, however, an elite running game with Ray Rice and Rickey Williams. The Ravens are averaging 5.2 yards per carry, fifth in the NFL. At the risk of feeling the wrath of those who think that Cam Cameron’s play-calling is too conservative, it would behoove the Ravens to run even more.
The Ravens average 25 carries per game, about average in the NFL. But one wonders whether more carries would allow the Ravens to better control the clock and open up the deep passing attack with Smith and Evans.
Defensively, the Ravens have been fantastic at stopping opposing passing games – opposing quarterbacks have a paltry passer rating of 71.1.
Yet, the defense is good, though not great, against the run, allowing 3.5 yards per rush. As low as that figure might seem, it is tenth in the NFL.
The story of the Ravens’ run for the NFL crown will take shape a little more this Sunday in Baltimore in the Ravens’ highly-anticipated game against the Jets.
Neither team figures to throw the ball with much success. The Ravens are fourth in the NFL in opposing quarterback rating. The Jets arrive with the top-rated pass defense in that statistic. Both Flacco and Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez should expect to hit the turf frequently.
The difference should come in the running game. The Jets’ run defense is squishy soft, as they are allowing an astounding 4.8 yards per carry. That should provide plenty of opportunity for straight-ahead blocking and productive carries for Rice and Williams. Meanwhile, the Jets’ running game is nothing special (3.4 yards per carry, 22nd in the NFL), and figures to stall against the Ravens. The Ravens also have the edge in special teams stats.
Look for a low-scoring game, such 10-0 or 13-3. But, as 70,000 folks exit the stadium this Sunday evening, look for the Ravens to get the win, and further solidify their status as the team to beat in the AFC.
