The bye-week could not have come at a better time for the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens. Extra rest and game-planning was needed, and you have to believe that the team soaked in every minute of their break.
While the Purple and Black took their weekend to rest up, they watched a favorable weekend unfold. Several key AFC contenders fell, certainly to the delight of those surrounding the Ravens. The Bengals may have won, but if you want the Ravens to continue to improve their chances at making the playoffs, you should be rejoicing Cincinnati’s domination.
I’ll be a realist and understand that the Bengals are the class of the AFC North. We saw what they have done and it’s evident that Andy Dalton is peaking at the right time. Barring total second-half domination by the Ravens, Cincinnati is going to win the North—and that’s fine. Realizing now that the chances of winning this division are slim is best.
No, it’s not out of the question; and I hope that those who truly believe the Ravens can take the North crown keep the faith, because that estimation has merit.
But the reality is that a #6 seed is the best the team could hope for. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.
For a Ravens team that is just going to get better, just cracking the postseason is a major accomplishment. There are teams that, at the outset of the season, thought they were going to win the Super Bowl and are now all-but mathematically out of the race. (See Atlanta and Houston among others.)
I’m going to take a giant step back from all the controversy, emotion, and eagerness and look at the facts.
This is a weak conference.
The Steelers should no longer be a problem, (thanks, Oakland) and there aren’t many dominant teams that stand. With all of that said, I’m going to make the declaration that although not mathematically true, is 100% a fact—The Baltimore Ravens control their own destiny. At 9-7, this team is going to make the playoffs.
Don’t believe it? Let’s take a look at who’s in the way.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
On paper, this is the team that the Ravens should be worried about the most. They’re 4-3, Phillip Rivers is having a career-best season, and they seem to have all the momentum going for them at the moment.
This is where we take that step back.
FACT- This team has four wins and the best record of all the AFC Wild-Card contenders.
FACT- Two of their four wins have come against… the Eagles (have scored three offensive points in their last two games) and the Jaguars.
I’m not trying to take anything away from Phillip Rivers, but his biggest games have come against the Raiders and the Cowboys—two of the league’s worst pass defenses. He has a history of not showing up in big games in the past and the guy has the ability to make stupid mistakes at inopportune times. Look at the Oakland game this year! He threw three picks in a game that could have been won by keeping the ball in his back pocket. Imagine if they would have won that game…
Take a peek at the Chargers upcoming schedule and truly ask yourself “can this team do any better than 9-7?”
@Washington, Denver, Miami, @Kansas City, Cincinnati, New York Giants, @Denver, Oakland, Kansas City.
That’s right! San Diego has their four wins, but they’ve yet to square off against the Chiefs and the Broncos. I can see Rivers and Co. taking one of their home games against Kansas City, but that’s about it. Quite honestly—they very easily could lose all four games. That right there puts them at seven losses and a total of SEVEN losses in the AFC, the category that counts as the first tie-breaker considering Baltimore and San Diego will not play each other. (Advantage—Ravens if they can produce)
And do you really think that the Chargers win all four games against the Bengals, Redskins, Giants, and Dolphins? There isn’t a game on the remaining schedule that is easy. Think the Chargers only lose three more games against that schedule?
Take this final note as a bit more encouragement: The Chargers are 3-8 in weeks 10-13 since 2010. Three of their four opponents in that span this year—Chiefs, Broncos, Bengals.
There’s a good chance this team finishes 8-8. If they drop all four to Denver and Kansas City, they’ll need just one more loss to finish at .500. I would take those chances.
Good luck, San Diego. You’re going to need it.
Best Case Scenario—9-7
Worst Case Scenario—6-10
NEW YORK JETS
This team just lost by 40 points to a team that isn’t the Denver Broncos. It’s officially time to press the panic button on their season and Rex Ryan’s job.
We’re looking at a Jets team that has -68 net points on the season. Negative sixty-eight points…
Things are a mess right now—starting with the defense that has let up 27 or more points in four of their last five games. The match-ups they have won have been ugly to say the least. Three of their four victories have been won by three points or less. (Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New England)
I really have looked for something that I like in this team, but I truly can’t see anything that catches my eye. They have an average offense, the defense ranks towards the bottom of the league in points allowed per game, and the identity of the entire team appears to be lacking.
The only reason the Ravens must worry about New York is the upcoming strength of schedule. Next week should send them to 4-5 after facing New Orleans, but after that, it’s pretty weak.
@Buffalo, @Baltimore, Miami, Oakland, @Carolina, Cleveland, @Minnesota
The game that stands out is the one here at M&T Bank Stadium, (we’ll get to that in a minute) but other than that, all of these games seem winnable. There’s only one problem… this is the Jets we’re talking about.
The game against Buffalo promises to be a tough one, as does the road test against Carolina. Cam Newton and the Panthers are surprising this year and they might still have a shot at that point in the season. I can see Terrelle Pryor having a great day against the Jets defense and Miami is always a tough task.
After watching the ugly game against the Bengals, I have complete confidence that the Ravens will beat the Jets at home. It’s quite possible that the most important game of the season will be against Rex Ryan’s crew. A win would give the Ravens the head-to-head tie breaker, an AFC victory, and a win in a “game with a common opponent”, a tie-breaker that can come into play against other wild-card contenders.
If this were any other team, I would be worried. But this dismal Jets team will lose at-least three more games, if not more.
NOTE: The Jets play the Saints in their next game. New Orleans has beaten the Jets in five of their last six meetings.
Best Case Scenario—9-7
Worst Case Scenario—6-10
TENNESSEE TITANS
Currently sitting at 3-4, the Titans currently rank ahead of the Ravens in the standings thanks to the fact that they are 3-2 in conference play compared to Baltimore’s 3-3 mark.
I don’t like much about this team and truly don’t think they’ll do any better than 8-8, but we’ll mention them because of where they currently stand. Jake Locker’s numbers might be above-average, but the team isn’t.
I look at the front-7 of their defense, where I’m not impressed. The secondary is a great unit however, something to watch as they head into the second-half of the year.
Taking a look at Tennessee’s schedule and realizing that they already have four losses, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they finish ahead of the Ravens. They still have two games against Andrew Luck and the Colts, a game against Denver, one apiece against Arizona and Houston, and a game at Oakland.
There’s no reason to believe that the Titans should be totally counted out, but let’s be honest—this team hasn’t been to the playoffs since KERRY COLLINS was at the helm. They aren’t progressing, they haven’t scored more than 17 points in their last three games, and they have no momentum whatsoever.
Best Case Scenario—8-8
Worst Case Scenario—5-11
MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Ravens hold the tie-breaker against Miami, so they would have to finish a whole game ahead to secure a spot above the defending champs.
The Dolphins are the team the Ravens should worry about more than the Titans due to the fire-power they have on the offensive side. Running back Lamar Miller can break a long run at any time, Ryan Tannehill can be good, and the pairing of Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline is scary. Don’t forget about Charles Clay who has been a pleasant surprise.
Miami’s biggest problem lies within their defensive game-plans that have been dreadful since Week Four. They have surrendered more than 23 points in five straight games—combining to a grand total of 137 points in that span.
Assuming the Ravens finish out the season 6-3, which can very easily be accomplished, the Dolphins would have to finish 7-2 just to finish 10-6. With games against Cincinnati, San Diego, Carolina, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, and New England upcoming, I don’t see that happening.
The games might be close, but in the end, if the Ravens are on-pace to come close to the #6 seed, Miami shouldn’t be close.
Best Case Scenario—9-7
Worst Case Scenario—6-10
We also have the Bills, Browns, Texans, and Steelers. Considering the fact that all three teams have five losses, it’s pretty safe to consider their chances to be almost none.
None of the above matters if the Ravens don’t execute. Even though we see that 8-8 might squeak the team into the playoffs, it won’t matter if Coach Harbaugh doesn’t get everything together and win the easy games.
This team has the talent to finish 10-6 and easily crack a Wild Card spot, but things could come crumbling down in crunch time.
It’s up to the Ravens.
They control their own destiny.
Will they capitalize on a golden opportunity?
