Thursday night, the 95th NFL season kicks off in Seattle, along with that Fantasy Football kicks off it’s 52nd season.
“Under the Radar” highlights weekly match-ups for a handful of players that are commonly called “Sleepers”, players who might not have been drafted or may be buried on fantasy benches. The goal is to identify which offer promising fantasy match-ups based upon statistics, trends, and historical match-ups.
Quarterback
Joe Flacco, Ravens vs. Bengals
Flacco was pummeled in 2013, but he starts 2014 with a favorable match up. The Bengals have always been a tough opponent for Flacco, more so on the road. In Baltimore though, against the Bengals he has three consecutive multiple touchdown pass games. In two of those he has passed for at least 270 yards. The Ravens will struggle to run Sunday
and to win Flacco will have to carry the team. He will throw for at least two scores and 230 yards.
Chad Henne, Jaguars at Eagles
The reality is Henne will be on the bench by midseason in favor of Blake Bortles, but week one Henne will have one of the best passing match ups the Jaguars will have all season. The Eagles are awful at defending the pass. They ranked 32nd in the league in 2013, allowing 290 yards a game and 25 passing scores. Henne finished 2013 with multiple touchdown pass games in 4 of his last five 5 contests. Jaguars’ receivers Cecil Shorts, Marqise Lee, and Marcedes Lewis will shine this week.
Running Back
Mark Ingram, Saints at Falcons
The Saints do plan to some degree to rotate Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas at running back. But, by the end of preseason, Ingram started to pull away from the others – so much so that Saints running backs coach Dan Rousher announced that Ingram would probably be his goal line back. The Falcons ranked 31st against the run in 2013, allowing 135.8 yards a game. They were soft again in the preseason playing the run. Ingram will find pay dirt at least once Sunday and gain 50-60 yards on the ground.
Fred Jackson, Bills at Bears
Even at 33 Jackson has plenty left in the tank. He will share touches with CJ Spiller again but inside the five yard line Jackson will have the backfield to himself. He had nine rushing scores to Spiller’s two in 2013. This week he faces the worst run defense in football. The Bears ranked 32nd in 2013, allowing 161 yards a game and 22 rushing scores. They upgraded their pass rush, but Jared Allen has never played the run well. How bad were the Bears against the run in 2013?, Ray Rice rushed for 131 yards against them last year, that is how bad. Jackson scores two touchdowns at Soldier Field Sunday.
Wide Receiver
John Brown, Cardinals vs. San Diego
Brown, the Cardinals third round draft selection from Pittsburgh State is a clone of T.Y. Hilton. While Brown is the third receiving option behind Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Arians has said Brown will be in for 60% of the snaps this year. He said the same before Hilton’s rookie year while at Indy and he played in 57%, gaining 800 yards and scoring 7 touchdowns. The similarities are there, and this week Brown and the Cardinals face a San Diego team that plays the run tough but was 29th against the pass, allowing 259 yards a game. Being in for 60% of the offensive plays against a pass defense this weak gives Brown a better than average shot at a favorable fantasy week.
Justin Hunter, Titans at Chiefs
Hunter is listed as the third Titans wide receiver on the depth chart with Kendall Wright and Nate Washington ahead of him. Before the second preseason game though, Titans offensive coordinator Jason Michael started to replace Washington with Hunter inside the 10-yard line. He responded with an athletic 4-yard scoring pass, out-jumping the single coverage. Look for more of the same Sunday against the under sized Chiefs secondary. KC was ranked 25th against the pass in 2013, allowing 25 scoring throws.
Tight End
Jared Cook, Rams vs. Vikings
Cook was a disappointment during the last fifteen weeks of the 2013 season after a two touchdown performance in week one. He should get back on track in 2014 with an opening game match up against the Vikings. The Vikings ranked 31st against the pass in 2013, allowing 287 yards a game, and a league high 37 touchdowns. While the Rams lost Sam Bradford again for the year, they are in good shape, Shaun Hill is probably the best backup quarterback in football, having career statistics of 41 touchdown passes and just 23 interceptions.
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