Here are five things to look for during Monday Night Football when the Ravens play their first meaningful game in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome since Super Bowl XLVII.
Brees’ accuracy and pocket presence
Drew Brees’ accuracy is a funny thing. He has the best completion percentage of all-time (66.1 percent), but is averaging 13 interceptions a year over his 14-year career.
Given time, Brees is a historically-great quarterback. He can and will pick you apart. But if the defense can disrupt the pocket and move him off his spot, he’s shown he would rather force throws than take sacks. The Ravens undoubtedly have the personnel to harass Brees and the Saints’ offensive line, but the members of Baltimore’s secondary will need to be keyed in to take advantage of errant throws when they come their way.
How Baltimore covers Jimmy Graham
Jimmy Graham is a more athletic version of Rob Gronkowski. He’s the quintessential “match-up nightmare.” Obviously, the tendency is to double team Graham, but the Saints are so dynamic on offense that when defenses double him, they risk being exposed elsewhere.
If Jimmy Smith were healthy, I think he’d match-up well with Graham, but of course Smith is out for the year. So, look for C.J. Mosley, who excels in pass coverage (although he had a poor performance against Le’Veon Bell), to shadow Graham for much of the game.
Also, keep an eye on how Baltimore’s defensive backs to complement their linebackers in covering Graham. In Week 7 at Detroit, Graham had the worst game of his career (2 targets, 0 receptions). The Lions’ defensive coordinator is Teryl Austin, who was the Ravens’ defensive backs coach from 2011-13.
Ingram’s YAC
If you’ve ever watched Mark Ingram play football, you’d know that saying he runs angrily is an understatement. It’s like he knows you stole something from him and he’s out to get vengeance on you. Imagine if James Harrison was a running back, and you’ll get a picture of how Ingram plays.
Ingram is the only running back in the NFL to rush for 500 yards and five touchdowns without fumbling this year. Tackling him is a tall task for any defense. He thrives on yards after contact. Speaking of which, expect a lot of collisions between Ingram and his college teammate Courtney Upshaw, whose forte is setting the edge in the run game.
Baltimore’s clock (and crowd) management
When the Saints play home games in prime time, they are virtually unbeatable. Recent struggles notwithstanding, New Orleans and its fans pose a considerable threat to Baltimore this week. The Saints crowd and players will be amped up (and slightly desperate), which is exactly how the Ravens should be, too.
New Orleans is 2nd in the league in time of possession (32:06 per game). The worst thing the Ravens can do is go behind early and allow the Saints to dictate tempo. If that happens, we could see a repeat of Week 1 when Joe Flacco threw 62 times and the Ravens rushed for 30 less yards (94) than their season average (124.1).
Haloti Ngata vs. Ben Grubbs
Both Haloti Ngata (2006) and Ben Grubbs (2007) were first round selections of the Ravens. Both players have been to multiple Pro Bowls. On Monday night, they’ll go up against one another for the first time in their professional careers.
Look for Ngata to line up across from Grubbs for most of the game. If Ngata can jolt Grubbs backwards into Brees’ lap, the Ravens will have a good shot at winning. If Grubbs stands his ground, it could be a long night for Baltimore’s defense. I wouldn’t be surprised either way.
For those who enjoy high-level offensive line play, this is a match-up you won’t want to miss.
Prediction
Saints 30, Ravens 26
