6 Baltimore Ravens at 1 New England Patriots
Saturday, January 10 at 4:35 P.M. ET on NBC
It feels like, for the first time, Ravens fans can be confident when thinking about their team going to Foxborough to play the Patriots, because they know what it’s like for Baltimore to beat New England in New England in the playoffs.
The last time these two teams met was last season in the Ravens’ home finale. New England rocked Baltimore that day, 41-7. Baltimore was minus-4 in the turnover battle and was shut-out for the first three quarters.
The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Ravens throttled the Patriots in New England, 28-13. Baltimore was plus-3 in the turnover battle and held the Patriots to zero second half points.
Whether it be in regular or postseason play, turnovers are magnified and defense is key when these two teams meet. This season the Ravens ranked 6th in scoring defense (18.9) while the Patriots ranked 8th (19.6). The Ravens forced 22 turnovers while the Patriots forced 25.
Vegas says the Patriots are a touchdown favorite in this divisional round match-up. I’m not saying New England will definitely lose, but I don’t think that’s an accurate spread. This game should be closely contested and well-coached on both sides. If you’re looking for x-factors, look at the offensive playmakers and pass rushers on each team.
From top to bottom, I think the two coaching staffs and special teams units are equal. I think the Ravens have a more complete offense and better pass rush, but I’d take New England’s secondary over Baltimore’s. All things considered, I like Baltimore in a close one.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Patriots 21
Spread: New England -7
Over/under: 48
4 Carolina Panthers at 1 Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, January 10 at 8:15 P.M. ET on FOX
Sure the Panthers held the Cardinals to 16 points and 78 total yards last Saturday, but don’t kid yourselves–the Cardinals falling flat on their faces was inevitable. The Panthers played a strong game, but the Cardinals offense isn’t good. Carolina’s offense has had better games, too. The Panthers turned the ball over three times and committed eight penalties for 80 yards.
How are we supposed to think the Panthers have a legitimate chance of beating the Seahawks in Seattle when they kind-of, sort-of played well at home against a bad offense and average team?
To me, everything about this game says take the Seahawks in a blowout.
Prediction: Seahawks 28, Panthers 12
Spread: Seahawks -11
Over/under: 40
3 Dallas Cowboys at 2 Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 11 at 1:05 P.M. ET on FOX
Dallas was better than the Lions this year and last Sunday, but the way that game ended was sketchy. Anthony Hitchens did commit pass interference against Brandon Pettigrew, even though the call was reversed. Still, the Lions had an opportunity to win and keep the Cowboys from scoring, and they did neither.
I’ve said for awhile that I think the Packers are the best team in the NFC, and I still believe that. I question Green Bay’s run defense in this game. However, I don’t think the Cowboys will get to run it as much as they want, as the Packers are likely to jump out to an early lead.
Green Bay led the league in 1st quarter scoring this year (9.4 points per 1st quarter), while Dallas’ 1st quarter scoring defense (5.3 points per 1st quarter) ranked 25th. Green Bay led the league in scoring offense this year (30.4 points per game), while Dallas ranked 15th in scoring defense (21.9).
I don’t think the Cowboys lose this game because of Tony Romo. I think he will play well. I think the Cowboys lose because their defense is average and won’t be able to contain Green Bay’s versatile offensive attack.
Prediction: Packers 35, Cowboys 31
Spread: Packers -6.5
Over/under: 53
4 Indianapolis Colts at 2 Denver Broncos
Sunday, January 11 at 4:40 P.M. ET on CBS
In the Wild Card round, similar to the Panthers, the Colts took care of an under-performing offense on their home field without much resistance. This weekend, similar to the Panthers, I think the Colts will put up a fight but will ultimately be overwhelmed by their opponent.
The Broncos are playing at home in a familiar time slot after 15 days off, which is good because three of their key players are dealing with injuries:
- Outside linebacker Brandon Marshall (foot)
- Left guard Orlando Franklin (concussion)
- Strong safety T.J. Ward (neck)
More than four months will have passed since the Broncos beat the Colts in Denver in Week 1 (31-24). That said, besides their kicker, I don’t see any position in which the Colts are better than the Broncos. If Denver doesn’t score at least 35 points, I’ll be surprised.
Prediction: Broncos 40, Colts 20
Spread: Broncos -7
Over/under: 54
