Reality: The Denver Broncos have interest in talking to Gary Kubiak about their head coach opening.
Perception: Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, said Sunday night that he was happy in Baltimore and that he was withdrawing his name from consideration for any head coaching opportunities this offseason.
Monday, the Denver Broncos fired their head coach and all the speculation immediately went to Kubiak. Kubiak played and coached in Denver for a long time. Some say that it would be a “dream job” for Kubiak.
But many people have also said that they think Kubiak still stays with the Ravens. Sources have told us here at the Russell Street Report that it is unlikely Kubiak leaves Baltimore, but that he would at least listen.
It’s rumored that Kubiak is extremely happy with the Ravens. He likes the Ravens organization. He likes the owner. He likes John Harbaugh. He likes where the team is headed. As an offensive coordinator, there may only be three better jobs in the NFL. So if he doesn’t want the stress that he had in Houston, staying in Baltimore is a great thing to do.
And Baltimore fans should be happy if he stays. It’s been a number of years since we had the same OC from one year to the next. Many fans complained about his play calling, but it was a thousand steps better than Matt Cavanaugh and Cam Cameron. It was a lot better than Jim Caldwell. If Kubiak left, I honestly don’t think the Ravens could have found a suitable replacement. They would have taken a step back.
Under Kubiak, Flacco had his best season in the NFL with career highs in yards and touchdowns. Under Kubiak, the Ravens went from worst in the NFL in rushing to seventh, with a no-name running back. Under Kubiak, the Ravens went from the 29th ranked offense in the NFL to 12th.
Be careful what you wish for.
Kubiak is a blessing to the Ravens offense.
Reality: The Ravens have 14 unrestricted free agents.
Perception: According to the smartest salary cap guy around, our own Brian McFarland, the Ravens have 41 players under contract for 2015 for just under $138 million.
Like most years, there will be a lot of turnover. Every team has it. Fans have got to stop screaming when another player leaves. It’s just part of the game. It’s a business. It’s not “what are the Ravens doing?!” or “He’s a sellout.” No, it’s a business that is constantly changing. Turnover is going to happen.
The nice part this offseason is that it appears that Ravens are in a much better position than they were last year. Last year they had some really good players that were going to be free agents, or some really good players that had too high of a cap number and would need to be cut or re-worked.
This year, the Ravens have only a handful of free agents that are worth fighting to re-sign, including Justin Forsett, Pernell McPhee and maybe Torrey Smith. Other guys, like Tyrod Taylor, Aaron Ross, and Jah Reid, are free to walk. Frankly, I’m more worried about three of the Restricted Free Agents than I am about the Unrestricted ones.
The Ravens core remains intact. Their front seven (defensive line and linebackers) is one of the best in football, and they will be back with the possible exception of McPhee. A deal needs to be re-worked with Haloti Ngata, but I think that gets done. The failed drug test only helps the Ravens get a team-friendly deal done.
The offensive line, which played well down the stretch, will return in-full. The wide receivers (minus Torrey Smith) are all returning, but I see Jacoby Jones possibly being cut and the Ravens going after a free agent receiver with the money they would have spent on Jones and Smith.
They will also invest cap money in secondary improvements.
Reality: The Ravens will play a 3rd place schedule next season.
Perception: Believe it or not, the Ravens actually benefit from finishing third this season. Not only did they still make the playoffs as the #6 seed, but they also outlasted the two teams above them in the standings (Steelers and Bengals). So they ended up better than the other teams in their division, while finishing the regular season behind them.
Because of that, they will play a weaker schedule next year, potentially giving them a better shot at making the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.
With an offensive coordinator coming back, a majority of their core players returning, and with a 3rd place schedule next season, it sets up nicely for the Ravens to have a really good season in 2015.
