The final four teams remaining in the NFL playoffs consist of two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 seed, and a No. 4 seed. As much as the current playoff format has been scrutinized, it seems like the best four teams are still alive. Baltimore and Dallas were very close, but they didn’t put their opponents away when they had the lead, so they didn’t deserve to advance.
All of the remaining franchises have won a Super Bowl within the last 11 years. All of the remaining franchises, except for the Colts, won their Super Bowls with the same head coach/quarterback combo that is in place today.
Each survivor has been rather fortuitous, but in the end, they earned their way to the conference showdowns.
Here’s a breakdown of Championship Sunday.
NFC Championship
2 Green Bay Packers at 1 Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, January 18 at 3:05 P.M. ET on FOX
Previous meeting (Week 1 in Seattle): Seahawks 36, Packers 16
A Week 1 blowout loss is certainly redeemable in the playoffs–just ask the Colts.
The Packers are led by the best player in football (Aaron Rodgers), although his mobility is limited, which is not a good problem to have playing against the Seahawks defense. Still, Rodgers overcame a shaky first half to lead his team to victory in the second half against the Cowboys, finishing with a stat line that reads: 24/35 (68.6 percent), 316 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 125.4 quarterback rating.
Besides Rodgers, the Packers are can give the ball to Eddie Lacy, who’s a monster running the ball.
It’s incredibly difficult to win the Super Bowl, but it’s even more difficult to just get back to the playoffs the following year. Seattle not only got back to the playoffs, but after making short work of the Panthers, is the favorite to win Super Bowl XLIX (7/5). Russell Wilson is a shorter, faster version of Ben Roethlisberger, in that he can launch the ball deep downfield, or escape pressure within the pocket to make a play on the run.
In addition to their stars, the Packers have unheralded weapons on offense (Davante Adams, Richard Rodgers) and defense (Mycah Hyde, Nick Perry). Seattle’s Jermaine Kearse is a deep threat that is going to test Green Bay’s secondary and lighten the box for Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, and Russell Wilson.
The key situation in this game will be when Green Bay goes with four wide receivers on offense with Lacy alongside Rodgers in the backfield. The Packers and the Seahawks will both have big-time players to match their counterparts in this scenario. Who does the advantage go to?
I like the Packers in a close one. The Green Bay offense and Seattle defense should cancel each other out, but I think Green Bay’s defense has more playmakers than Seattle’s offense.
Prediction: Packers 20, Seahawks 19
Spread: Seattle -7.5
Over/under: 46.5
AFC Championship
4 Indianapolis Colts at 1 New England Patriots
Sunday, January 18 at 6:40 P.M. ET on CBS
Previous meeting (Week 11 in Indianapolis): Patriots 42, Colts 20
Indianapolis will certainly be fired up after their big upset win at Denver last Sunday, and I doubt they will play passive pass defense like the Ravens did against the Patriots. That said, I keep imagining the Colts not having enough talent on either side of the ball to beat the Patriots.
I thought the biggest threat to the Patriots was the Ravens. New England withstood Baltimore’s best shots and still won. Terrell Suggs (two tackles, .5 sacks) and Elvis Dumervil (zero tackles) were completely neutralized by New England’s offensive line. If the Patriots did that against the Ravens’ pass rush, how will the Colts fare any better? Tom Brady standing in a clean pocket is never good for the opposition.
When a team as talented as New England gets a second chance, they’re not likely to waste it.
The Colts will fight like heck, and could win, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Brady and Belichick are 5-3 in conference title games. Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano are 3-2 in the playoffs (including a 21-point loss at New England in the divisional round of the 2013 postseason).
I think the Patriots go to the Super Bowl for the sixth time since since 2001.
Prediction: Patriots 30, Colts 20
Spread: New England -7
Over/under: 53.5
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