After watching the Patriots climb the mountaintop, there is confidence in Ravens Nation that we are trending toward an appearance in Super Bowl L.
Some might argue we are only a cornerback or playmaking receiver away from the Promised Land, and clamor for the selection of one of those at pick number 26. I certainly wouldn’t be upset if the best player available toward the end of the first round of the draft was someone capable of lockdown coverage or highlight reel catches.
But after a third place finish in the division in 2014, and a likelier tougher schedule in 2015, the Ravens can’t take a postseason berth next year for granted.
Why is this fairly obvious assertion relevant to the draft?
The refrain of securing the AFC North title first and foremost is common to all Ravens fans. It requires building a team for inclement weather and difficult conditions in the latter part of the season. Physical defense and a smash-mouth rushing attack (and increasingly, a strong-armed QB) are hallmarks of the formula for success. By extension, the foundation of this formula is laid up front in the trenches.
That’s why, if available with the 26th pick, the Ravens should draft a DE.
Typically in a 3-4 defense, the ends are not sexy. They do dirty work controlling multiple gaps along the line of scrimmage so that the ILBs can flow freely to the ball when it is run, and so that rush OLBs can pursue the QB in passing situations. But our scheme has become more nuanced over the years, and hybridized with other concepts. As the mechanics of our defense evolve, so do the personnel archetypes.
One of the subtle manipulations of the 3-4 that is becoming popular around the league is to shift the defense toward the strong side of an offensive formation, to enable a longer, more athletic End playing in a 5-technique (lined up on the outside shoulder of the offensive tackle) or wider to have a single gap responsibility. This in turn enables that player to unleash his pursuit skill set to either stop the Running Back cold or level the Quarterback.
This tactic is employed effectively in Houston, where JJ Watt has transcended the typical 3-4 DE assignment, racking up gaudy stats and winning multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards. More impressively, he led a team without a real starting QB to a 9-7 record, and kept them in playoff contention into the last week of the regular season in 2014. But to be fair, Watt was selected eleventh overall and is a once-in-a-generation, if not once-in-a-lifetime talent.
So indulge me another example: Arizona.
For those Ravens fans that only follow football played in the AFC and on the east coast, there is a team out west called the Cardinals. They run a 3-4 hybrid defensive scheme very successfully. In fact, their Defensive Coordinator just earned a head-coaching gig on the strength of his defense’s performance. They were so good this year that, with a revolving door at QB, they went 11-5 against a .547 preseason strength of schedule (Baltimore faces a .539 next year).
If you asked former Cardinals’ DC Todd Bowles who was the lynchpin of his success, he would tell you his DE, Calais Campbell. Ironically, because of the hype around Patrick Peterson, a CB, Campbell garners little notoriety (although that is changing). Campbell was not simply a beast statistically, his individual performance lifted Arizona’s whole front seven (overcoming the losses of Pro Bowl DT Darnell Dockett and LB John Abraham to season-ending injuries).
Campbell was taken 50th overall in the 2008 draft. Curiously, in 2008, the Jaguars owned the 26th pick, and before they traded up in to the top 10 to select a DT, they reportedly called Campbell and told him they would select him at 26 if he was still available.
So yes, we can and should consider the 6’1″ 197lb corners with large wingspans and fluid hips and the 6’3″ 215lb receivers with top end speed that can work in and out their breaks effortlessly. But let’s also study the 6’7″ 300lb manimals who will make life miserable for Big Ben, Andy Dalton, and whatever mannequin Cleveland drags onto the field next year. And who, more importantly, will augment an already impressive D Line en route to the division crown.
Admittedly, the Ravens may feel they have such a piece on their roster in Chris Urban (on whom they claimed to have a second round grade in the 2014 draft). However, I think the result of selecting CJ Mosley is compelling evidence that drafting a player at a position of strength and depth early can make a big difference.
Lastly, for what it’s worth, I started writing this piece before Matt Miller debuted his first seven-round mock draft. In the second round (pick 52 overall) he has the Ravens taking Arik Armstead, a 6’8″ 290lb DE from Oregon.
I am dubious of Armstead’s collegiate sack totals, but am not well versed enough in Oregon’s defense or Armstead’s individual play to determine if his numbers were a scheme issue, talent issue, or technique issue.
