This past week in the NFL was incredibly entertaining. It was equally difficult to keep track of who signed what deal for how much and for how long.
The key word is entertaining. We watch competitive football for five months straight, then after the Super Bowl, there’s a five week period in which nothing much happens. It’s a shock to the system, and thus, when the league year begins, we’re like a kid on Christmas morning–we can’t wait to open our presents.
When free agency began on Tuesday, it brought about a lot of excitement. But even though fan is short for fanatic, isn’t it incumbent upon fans to exercise some level of patience?
That is to say, if your team signs the biggest name there is to be signed, shouldn’t you reserve judgement on that team’s season until it actually begins?
This morning, I heard a national sports talk radio host talking about how his Jets weren’t going to be scored on because of their great defense, which now includes recent signings Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Marcus Gilchrist.
First, just because the Jets spent $102 million over the next five years for Revis and Cromartie doesn’t mean jack. I know this might be hard to believe for some, but money spent doesn’t equate to on-field production.
Second, just because a player performed well in the past doesn’t mean they will in the future. Players have frequently produced career years in their contract year. Once they sign the big contract, their level of incentive goes way down.
Buyer beware.
Third, if you as a general manager or owner have to completely re-make your roster the second free agency begins, that’s a major red flag. It shows poor planning. It suggests you’re impulsive and your team isn’t close to competing for a Super Bowl.
That brings me to my main point. Successful teams draft well, prepare years in advance, and don’t need free agency as much as teams that aren’t successful.
In free agency, good teams fine-tune. Bad teams overhaul.
Over the last five years, only seven NFL teams have won at least 50 regular season games:
- 1)Â New England (63)
- 2) Green Bay (56)
- 3) Baltimore (52)
- 4) Pittsburgh (51)
- T-5) Denver/San Francisco/Seattle (50)
Out of the 35 combined drafts those teams have had since 2010, guess how many times they’ve picked in the Top 10?
Three.
In 2011, the Broncos selected Von Miller 2nd overall and the 49ers took Aldon Smith 7th overall. In 2010, the Seahawks drafted Russell Okung with the 6th overall pick.
You can’t be a bad team and continually pick near the bottom of the draft. Successful teams know how to build, plan, adjust, and sustain. Unsuccessful teams foster instability and improper personnel evaluation.
The Ravens are a good example of what a strong NFL franchise looks like. Regardless of a demanding division and numerous key injuries, they have been able to go 59-31 over the last five years (65.6 winning percentage, playoffs included). That’s about as good as it gets.
What big name free agents has Baltimore signed in that time? Elvis Dumervil is the only one that comes to mind. Vonta Leach and Jacoby Jones played well for Baltimore, but they weren’t really called upon to carry the load. Matt Birk delivered for the Ravens, too, but he wasn’t considered a “big-time” signing.
Instead, the Ravens (and those other six teams) find fortune in drafting well. When a team drafts well, they not only get players that will contribute, they get players that will contribute at a lesser cost than a free agent would ask for. That enables a team to stockpile picks and/or young talent to develop or trade later on.
Therefore, building a team through the draft instead of through free agency gives teams many more options and much more financial flexibility.
Although it requires patience, building a team through the draft yields an end result worth waiting for.
