NFL Free Agency- Week One Review
From the Ndamukong Suh and Darrelle Revis monster contracts, to the Jimmy Graham and Haloti Ngata trades, the 1st week of the NFL League Year has been an absolute whirlwind.
Here’s a few of my key observations in our Week One Wrap Up.
Day One trades shocked the world… and there’s likely more to come. Prior to free agency, the Eagles agreed in principle to trade running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills for linebacker Kiko Alonso, essentially trading a proven top-5 running back for a linebacker in Alonso who is coming off of a torn ACL. This was a huge gamble for Kelly that many had considered a salary dump and a chance to add another former Oregon Duck to Kelly’s flock. But this trade was just the tip of the iceberg.
Since the start of free agency, trades have almost become common place, with many big names being shifted about the NFL. Here’s the list to date:
- New Orleans Saints trade TE Jimmy Graham & a 4th round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for C Max Unger and a 1st round pick (31st overall).
- Baltimore Ravens trade DT Haloti Ngata & a 7th round pick to the Detroit Lions for a 4th and 5th round pick.
- Chicago Bears trade WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets for a 5th round pick.
- St. Louis Rams trade QB Sam Bradford & a 5th round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for QB Nick Foles, a 4th round pick and a 2016 2nd round pick.
- Houston Texans trade QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to the New York Jets for a 7th round pick.
- New Orleans Saints trade WR Kenny Stills to the Miami Dolphins for LB Dannell Ellerbe and a 3rd round pick.
- Miami Dolphins trade WR Mike Wallace to Minnesota Vikings for a 5th round pick.
While the list is already substantial in the 1st week, don’t be surprised to see it continue to grow. Multiple sources are reporting that the New Orleans Saints have made it clear that they are willing to listen to offers for nearly any player on the active roster, making them likely players in the trade market, even after shipping Graham and Stills out of town.
The other team to watch for would be the Philadelphia Eagles. There’s a growing speculation that the Sam Bradford trade was just step 2 of a 3 step plan for Kelly to maneuver his way up the board to bring home QB Marcus Mariota on Draft Day. And the speculation is reasonably justifiable: Mariota played under Kelly at Oregon, he knows Kelly’s system well, and the thought of bringing in injury prone Sam Bradford in the final year of his deal to run the offense for Kelly just doesn’t add up.
The ‘Supply and Demand’ policy was in full effect for the cornerback market. With limited starting-caliber corners on the market, coupled with a high demand, cost of a cornerback shot through the roof. The once-again Jet CB Darrelle Revis was due to get paid after a phenomenal 2014 season, and the Jet’s ponied up top dollar. Revis landed a hefty 5 year, $70 million deal with the Jets, with a whopping $39 million guaranteed.
Outside of Revis, there were no other top tier corners, leaving players like Byron Maxwell, Kareem Jackson, Brandon Browner, Perrish Cox, and Davon House to be considered the cream of the crop. And with a thin market, the cost of this crop jumped exponentially to the point where 30 year old Antonio Cromartie (45th ranked CB by Pro Football Focus) is essentially stealing a 4 year, $32 million dollar deal with the Jets.
The market for Running Backs has thinned substantially. The running back market was more chaotic than expected, and the Eagles are to thank for that chaos. Simply looking at the timeline of events for Chip Kelly’s bunch should explain:
- 3/3/15- Eagles agree to trade LeSean McCoy to the Bills.
- 3/10/15- Eagles agree to terms with Frank Gore.
- 3/10/15- Frank Gore pulls out of agreement with Eagles. Signs with Colts.
- 3/11/15- Eagles agree to terms with Ryan Mathews.
- 3/12/15- Eagles fly DeMarco Murray to Philadelphia. Mathews deal in limbo.
- 3/13/15- Eagles sign DeMarco Murray AND Ryan Mathews.
One would assume that Cowboys fans should be irate with Frank Gore. After all, if it wasn’t for Gore’s grand plan to head to Indy with Andre Johnson, DeMarco may not have landed with Dallas’ rival in Philly. At least they got a nice consolation prize in Darren McFadden on a 2 year deal…
Outside of the DeMarco/Gore/Mathews fiasco, we also saw Forsett and Baltimore ‘put a ring on it,’ Reggie Bush land in San Fran after getting rejected by the Saints (who signed CJ Spiller and re-signed Mark Ingram), Shane Vereen get a long term commitment from the Giants, and Bilal Powell stay put with the Jets. Beyond that bunch, there’s still a few serviceable backs available if teams are looking for backups. Ahmad Bradshaw, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson and Pierre Thomas can all provide a nice boost to a team in a complementary role, however it appears most, if not all, starters are off the board.
The market for Tight Ends is even thinner. 2015 is a good year to have a starting tight end already on your roster, because the market dried up after Day One. Miami tight end Charles Clay was slapped with the Transition Tag prior to the start of free agency, effectively giving the Dolphins control, and Julius Thomas and the Jags had agreed to a deal in principle prior to the start of Free Agency. Virgil Green decided to stay in Denver on a modest deal, as did Niles Paul in Washington, Lance Kendrick in St. Louis, Ed Dickson in Carolina and Matt Spaeth in Pittsburgh.
With a handful of names off the market prior to the start of free agency, the top remaining tight ends flew off the board: Owen Daniels followed Gary Kubiak to Denver, Anthony Fasano signed with Tennessee, Jordan Cameron joined the Fins in Miami and Scott Chandler chose the Patriots over the Ravens. How thin is the tight end market? My current top 3 available tight ends are Jermaine Gresham, Jacob Tamme, and Dante Rosario.
Oh, and the draft doesn’t look much better either.
A few notable receivers are still available. Early in the week, we saw Jeremy Maclin (Chiefs) and Torrey Smith (49ers) get lucrative deals, followed by Harry Douglas (Titans), and Eddie Royal (Bears) getting deals worthy of a WR2. Outside of this group and the trades involving Brandon Marshall, Kenny Stills and Mike Wallace, there hasn’t been much traction in the wide receiver market. And while the biggest names have already found homes, there are still a handful of serviceable wide receivers on the market. A few notable names that we should see land new homes in the coming weeks:
- Greg Jennings (released by Vikings)
- Stevie Johnson (released by 49ers)
- Dwayne Bowe (released by Chiefs)
- Michael Crabtree
- Cecil Shorts
- Denarius Moore
Outside of the big names, there are still a few vets available that could be serviceable for a team looking to add some role players, including Miles Austin, Darius Heyward-Bey and Vincent Brown. Then there’s the senior citizens group, primarily Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker, which may be fielding calls from teams trying to get one more year out of them before they file for retirement.
Some teams flush with cap space still aren’t spending. Sure Jacksonville and Oakland have made some great additions, and have been spending a good bit of their available cap space, but it seems the others in the same position are not as inclined to make moves. According to Over The Cap, the current top 5 teams with the most available cap space are Cleveland ($40M+), Tennessee ($37M+), Jacksonville ($36M+), Oakland ($30M+) and Tampa Bay ($26M+). If we look at each teams cap space prior to the start of free agency in comparison to where they are now, it appears a few teams are in a holding pattern:
My first instinct was to determine whether any teams are in danger of violating the ‘89% Rule’ in which teams must spend at least 89% of the cap space (in cash) from 2013-2016. As it current stands, only Oakland (80%) and Jacksonville (82%) are well below the threshold, although with their spending so far in the 2015 league year, it appears they are moving in the right direction. As for Cleveland, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, they are all on track to be compliant by the end of the 2016 league year. Compliance aside, if teams are continually falling short of success, particularly Tennessee and Tampa who had the worst records in 2014, why not spend to improve the team?
So who’s left? There are still a handful of big names floating around; however we’re quickly approaching a step down in value. Based on NFL.com’s Top 101, here’s the best-of-the-best hanging around after Week 1 of Free Agency:
- QB- Michael Vick
- WR- Michael Crabtree, Dwayne Bowe, Cecil Shorts, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, Stevie Johnson, Denarius Moore
- TE- Jermaine Gresham, Rob Housler
- RB- Stevan Ridley, Ahmad Bradshaw, Pierre Thomas
- OL- Stefen Wisniewski, Joe Barksdale, Justin Blalock, Jake Long, Chris Myers
- DE/DT- Greg Hardy, BJ Raji, Randy Starks, Vince Wilfork, Jarvis Jenkins, Ahtyba Rubin, CJ Mosley, Anthony Spencer, Kevin Williams
- LB- Brandon Spikes, Rolando McClain, Dwight Freeney, Lance Briggs
- DB- Tramon Williams, Patrick Robinson, Stevie Brown
What does it all mean for the Ravens?
The team was successful in retaining RB Justin Forsett, and did so with a very team friendly deal. However there are still voids to fill in the secondary, as well as the receiving corps. With free agency slowing down, this is the start of prime time for Ozzie & Co. Over the weekend the team signed safety Kendrick Lewis to a multi-year deal, and I would expect them to 
continue adding to that secondary with a few more role players.
That said I fully expect Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb to be your starting corners come Week One. The wide receiver market still needs to play out fully, and once we see some movement with a few of the 2nd tier names (likely Bowe to the Browns), I would expect the Ravens to make a play at either Stevie Johnson, Greg Jennings or possibly Hakeem Nicks- all 3 players would not impact the Ravens compensatory picks, making them possible additions.
I also expect to see an addition on the defensive line after the retirement of Canty, the trade of Ngata. However, patience is key. The market needs to continue to settle.
And when the dust clears?
Ozzie will once again show the NFL why he is regarded as one of the best in the business.
*Be sure to follow us on Twitter @RSRRumors to keep up with transactions around the league.
