The NFL is all but decided officially to change the extra-point play in effort to increase scoring. Teams offered many solutions to make the point after touchdown more exciting. Some of them bordered on the absurd, like Irsay and the Colts’ proposal to allow a 3rd extra point opportunity from 50 yards out if a team makes a 2-pt conversion. The other official proposal – and far more likely option – was New England’s proposal to move the PAT to the 15-yard line for an approximately 32-yard FG attempt.
Nothing has been decided yet, but one thing is certain. In the near future, the play following a touchdown will no longer be automatic. The proposed change will be voted on at the league meetings in May. If anything passes (which is looking quite likely), the rule will be instituted starting this fall.
We’ll ignore the Colts’ proposal which was tabled and instead look at the more likely proposal from the Patriots. If the owners decide to move the extra point LOS back to the 15-yard line (or somewhere close to it), a reliable kicker becomes even more valuable. From 32 yards away, the PAT can be more easily influenced by weather conditions. It also has a slightly better chance of being blocked.
In 2014, just 59 two-point conversions were attempted and 28 were successful. That’s good for a success rate of 47.46%. Compare that number to the 99.35% success rate on extra points and it’s easy to see why most teams opt to go for the near-automatic one point.
The high success rate of the PAT will decrease some if the distance for the PAT try is increased. From a range of 30-39 yards in 2014, kickers made 259 out of 302 field goals. That’s a success rate of just 85.76%. That would make going for the two-point conversion much more enticing for a team that doesn’t trust its kicker.
Enter Justin Tucker.
From 30-39 yards out last year, Justin Tucker was a perfect 11 for 11. With these proposed rule changes to the point that teams have taken for granted, he will become even more valuable.
Tucker is currently tendered as a restricted free agent. Following the 2015 season, he will become an unrestricted free agent. The Ravens could use the franchise tag on him in 2016 to give some time to work out a long-term contract, but the Ravens would be wise to work out a deal before then considering the impending free agency of Marshal Yanda, Kelechi Osemele, and Jimmy Smith.
If they can’t work out a long-term deal before the season, Justin Tucker should be one of the team’s biggest priorities before free agency in 2016.
After all, we all know what can happen from 32 yards out…
Stats courtesy of ESPN.com, SportingCharts.com, and Pro-Football Reference
