Week 4 Recap: Last week’s predictions ended up with more hits than misses. We nailed it with Le’Veon Bell (22 carries, 129 yards, 1 TD), gave good advice on Heyward-Bey as a sleeper (4 receptions, 31 yards, 1 TD), but whiffed on mostly everything else, including starting Smith Sr. (left game with injury) and Antonio Brown (5 receptions, 42 yards, 0 TD).
And we can pretend I never said to sit Forsett…
In the wake of the losses of Smitty and Campanaro, we saw a shift in this Ravens offense from the pass-happy game to a rush-first attack that was actually able to produce yards late in the game. This change in game plan should continue this week against Cleveland, and should make for some sure shot calls on fantasy studs and duds.
Setting the Scene: The Ravens (1-3) head back to Baltimore to face the Browns (1-3) who are coming off of a last minute defeat at the hands of the Chargers. Loser of this match locks in the cellar dweller status for the AFC North.
Start ‘Em
The Ravens run game finally showed up last week in Pittsburgh, with Forsett going off for 150 yards on 27 carries (4.5ypc). While Forsett has yet to crack the endzone this season, he’ll be going against Cleveland’s 31st ranked rushing defense (141.5 ypg), who has allowed 5 rushing TD’s on the season. Forsett should be a no-brainer start this week.
Had John Manziel (I refuse to call an adult ‘Johnny’) started, I would have Benjamin listed as a MUST start. With Manziel at QB in Weeks 1 & 2, Benjamin had 6 catches on 7 targets for 204 yards and 3 TD’s. Since the return of McCown (weeks 3 &Â 4), Benjamin’s production slipped a bit to 10 catches on 20 targets for 124 yards and 1 TD. Clearly McCown is targeting Benjamin at a high rate, and with Ravens CB’s constantly allowing receivers a 10+ yard cushion, I still expect Benjamin to put up some good numbers on the day.
The AFC Special Teams player of the week could be busy this week against Cleveland. With Smitty out, there’s potential for a handful of field goals to come into play. That, and I highly doubt Harbaugh tries a fake field goal play again this year.
Sit ‘Em
Browns RB’s
Last week in San Diego, Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson combined for 94 rushing yards and 147 receiving yards, with Johnson finding the endzone. Unfortunately for the duo, they aren’t facing the 27th ranked Chargers defense again this week. A stout Baltimore D-Line should limit their production this week as they fall back down to earth.
While Barnidge has been a serviceable player of late in fantasy (especially against Oakland), the Ravens hold TE’s in check. PFF grades for the starting TE’s vs. Baltimore this season: Owen Daniels (0.1), Mychal Rivera (-0.9), Tyler Eifert (-3.2), Heath Miller (-0.1).
Steve Smith Sr.
I know. He’s hurt. And very unlikely to play. But do you have any idea how many people will forget to check their lineups and leave him in? This is your friendly reminder to CHECK YOUR LINEUPS!
Sleepers
Aiken quietly had a great second half last week in Pittsburgh, and clearly has gained Flacco’s support: Nobody had more targets in the 2nd half than Aiken (6), and post-Smitty injury last week, Flacco targeted Aiken on 29% of his pass attempts. If you’re thin at wideout, start him, especially if Joe Haden sits out for a second week in a row.
Whoever the Ravens start at TE
With Gillmore still not practicing, I’d assume this would be Maxx Williams, but crazier things have happened, and Crockett may be back on Sunday. Regardless of who starts- with Smitty out, I expect the TE’s to get more work. In the 2nd half of last week’s game, Joe targeted TE’s  on nearly 1/3 of his attempts (6/19). If Gillmore was a sure shot for Sunday I would have him as a Start ‘Em, but with his status in limbo, I would hold out. If Maxx Williams gets the nod, he’s still not a sure shot starter, as he doesn’t have the rapport with Joe that Gillmore has developed.
Happy tinkering!
