For the second time in seven games this season, the Ravens will welcome referee Gene Steratore and his zeal of zebras, as Baltimore squares off with the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.
While the final score wasn’t in the Ravens’ favor (a loss to the Broncos in Week 1) a repeat of the minimal flags thrown in the direction of Baltimore in that game would be a welcomed blessing this week.
OFFICIATING CREW: Gene Steratore (referee), Barry Anderson (umpire), Ed Walker (heads linesman), Mike Weatherford (field judge), Dino Paganelli (back judge), Bob Waggoner (side judge), Gary Arthur (line judge).
Ravens’ Continued Penalty Woes
PlaxicoBurressitis: the act of shooting oneself in the foot.
Unfortunately this disease continues to plague Baltimore during this abysmal 2015 season. With nine more penalties in last week’s game against the Cardinals, the Ravens are currently the 8th-most penalized team in the NFL, and once again proved that disciplined is something this team as a whole lacks this season.
While the total penalties are high, we can still see a few glimmers of hope through seven weeks. Here’s the week-by-week breakdown of the Ravens penalties versus the league average:
In three of the seven weeks this season, the Ravens have managed to keep their accepted penalty totals under five, which is actually astounding given the fact that they, again, have the 8th-most penalties in the league. Unfortunately, no true correlation can be made between total penalties for the Ravens and wins, as every loss (and their only win) has been within one score, regardless of penalty totals.
We can point out the obvious, which is that fewer penalties increase your odds of winning, as shown in Week 4 against the Steelers when the Ravens only had four accepted penalties; however, this team’s success & failures are due to much more than penalties.
The Misconception About Officiating Bias vs. Baltimore
Just like everybody else in the RFB (Ravens Fan Base), I too believed that the Ravens had been getting an unfair shake on penalties this year. Over the course of the season, we’ve pointed out several instances in which the officials have made questionable calls or missed blatant penalties, only to leave fans feeling that the poor officiating cost the Ravens the game.
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And while those officiating errors were all valid concerns, the overall stigma that the Ravens have been getting the short end of the stick (or yellow flag as it may be) is actually untrue.
Although there’s no true computation to analyze the potential for bias in officiating as there are far too many variables, one simplistic method to get an overall sense of an unfair shake would be to create what I have deemed the Favorable Penalty Differential, as a basic check method to compare penalties in favor of a team (on the opposition) to penalties against. Here’s the basic formula:
And here’s how this shakes out for Baltimore:
Baltimore breaks even with 54 penalties against the team and in their favor. Again, while this is not a true tell-all regarding officiating bias, nor does it show their true effect on the end result of a game, at the very least this shows us that we can’t blame them one-sided officiating.
Steratore’s Crew
Looking ahead to this week’s game between the Ravens and Chargers, we should have some high hopes for Steratore’s crew calling fewer penalties than the Ravens are accustomed to seeing.
Keep in mind- the last time the Ravens had Steratore as the head official was Week 1, when the Ravens had only five penalties in the game, which should make fans hopeful for similar results this week.
Penalty Breakouts
Since total penalties only tell half of the story, we’ll delve deeper into the breakout of flag dispersion by all parties involved on Sunday.
Gene Steratore’s crew has been heavy handed on the pre-snap flags (false start, illegal shift, offsides, etc.), which accounts for 43%(!) of their flags thrown. The 2nd most frequently thrown flag, and one that should be a major concern for the Ravens this weekend, is for defensive contact (pass interference, holding, illegal contact downfield). With a banged up secondary that can hardly stop 3rd string receivers, there could be some concern.
Looking at the Ravens’ breakdown by penalty, we see a similar allocation to Steratore’s crew, with the bulk of the penalties of the pre-snap (33% overall) and defensive contact (22%) variety. The only glaring difference would be 26% of the Ravens penalties accounting for offensive contact (primarily holding) as opposed to Steratore’s crew who calls this much less frequently (12%).
The glaring number you see with San Diego is their offensive contact (38%). The Chargers are tied for 5th in the league with 15 offensive holding penalties, which should have Baltimore’s front seven licking their chops as they try to pressure Rivers on Sunday (the Chargers O-Line injuries woes should help their cause too).
What to Expect
While Gene Steratore’s crew has a tendency to call fewer penalties than the NFL average, the Ravens’ and Chargers’ propensity to generate dirty laundry could be the stronger influence in this game. Somewhere in an 8-10 flags per team range sounds appropriate. What I don’t expect is any egregious or blatant missed calls, as Steratore hasn’t been involved with any major league blunders this season.
Overall, the play on the field will dictate the outcome of this game, with the officials’ influence being marginal at best.
Unfortunately, as a fan of a 1-6 Baltimore team, that thought is equally as alarming, with the only difference being one less scapegoat.
