1. Carolina Panthers (14-1)
Next game: vs. Tampa Bay (6-9)
Although the Panthers lost their first game of the season (and their first regular season game since November 30, 2014), they’re still the odds-on favorite to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 50.
With a one-game lead on Arizona, a home game against the Buccaneers, and the Cardinals playing the Seahawks, things are still very much in Carolina’s favor.
Carolina got caught slipping last week, but I still believe they’re the best team in football. In fact, the loss to Atlanta will serve as a very inexpensive wake-up call.
Once the playoffs start, though, the path to San Francisco will get a lot more challenging. I see a re-match of Week 6 in the cards for Carolina, only this time, they’ll host Seattle in the divisional round. If they advance, it’s likely they’ll host the Cardinals in the NFC title game.
Cam Newton plays better on the bigger stage. I’m sure he’ll welcome the pressure.
2. Arizona Cardinals (13-2)
Next game: vs. Seattle (9-6)
The top scoring offense. The fifth scoring defense. Multiple playmakers on both sides of the ball. A head coach that demands excellence.
If you have a team with those components and give that team a first-round bye, with the potential to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, that team isn’t going to lose many games.
Arizona has scored 40 or more points four times this season and has allowed 20 or fewer points nine times this season. From the first snap, they hammer their opponent on both sides of the ball, to the point where it’s almost hard to realize said opponent is a NFL team (see last week’s 38-8 drubbing of Green Bay).
Between the Cardinals and the Panthers, not much is different. Carolina has a more athletic quarterback and a better overall defense, but if the Panthers are No. 1, the Cardinals are No. 1a. Not having Tyrann Mathieu will hurt, but this team (and secondary, for that matter) isn’t built upon the performance of one player.
Oh by the way, without question, Carson Palmer is having the best season of his 12-year career. If you don’t get to him (and sometimes, even if you do), he’s going to light you up.
3. Denver Broncos (11-4)
Next game: vs. San Diego (4-11)
The Broncos have lost two of their last three games, which isn’t a good sign when the playoffs begin next week. However, that one win came last week against the Bengals–one of their main competitors for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Denver got off to an amazing start in their first seven games (7-0 record, average score of 24-16). Their next seven games, shall we say, didn’t turn out too well (3-4 record, average score of 20-21).
Now with a home game against San Diego, the second-worst team in the conference (after Tennessee), another week in which Peyton Manning can heal up, and key head-to-head wins against the Patriots, Bengals, and Chiefs in hand, Denver is looking good in the long run.
Despite an ill-timed ankle injury to their leading tackler Brandon Marshall and a top-heavy passing game, and though some deficiencies have been exposed, this team has a very good chance to make a deep run in the playoffs.
Even if Manning’s return isn’t seamless, Denver can rely on it’s top-ranked defense (1st in passing, 2nd in rushing).
Not a bad contingency.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)
Next game: vs. Oakland (7-8)
Kansas City’s season doesn’t quite make sense. After a win over the Texans on opening weekend, the Chiefs lost five straight games and gave up an average of 28 points per game in those losses.
Now, they’re currently enjoying a nine-game winning streak in which their points against average has plummeted to 12 points per game.
What’s impressive about these wins is the fact that Justin Houston, last year’s sack leader, has missed four games with a hyper-extended knee. His fellow pass-rushing compadre, Tamba Hali, missed the Cleveland game last week because of a broken finger.
According to Andy Reid via Terez A. Paylor, both Houston and Hali are day-to-day. Getting Houston back will be especially energizing to Kansas City, as he’s recorded 50.5 sacks in his last 54 games.
Don’t forget about Alex Smith, either. He’s putting together one heck of a season, and, one heck of a career in Kansas City.
Since Smith began playing for the Chiefs, he’s attempted 1,418 passes. Only 18 of those 1,418 have been intercepted (1.3%). The all-time leader in pass interception percentage is, strangely enough, Aaron Rodgers (1.6 percent). Though Smith isn’t as good as Rodgers, it gives you context as to how locked in he’s been over the last three years.
Unfortunately, the Chiefs will continue to be without All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles as they head into the playoffs. But something about this team tells me that once they’re “in the tournament,” they’re going to be a serious problem for whichever team has to face them.
5. New England Patriots (12-3)
Next game: at Miami (5-10)
If you’re a Patriots fan and you’re worried, something’s wrong with you.
Yes, the decision to kick the ball to begin overtime last week against the Jets was perplexing, to say the least. But, when have the Patriots not been a heavy favorite in the playoffs? Since Tom Brady became their starter, they’ve always been the favorite (as far as I’m concerned).
Regardless if you think you think he’s cheated or not, the fact remains that Bill Belichick is not just great, he’s legendary.
No head coach in the history of football has won more playoff games than Belichick (22).
As far Julian Edelman goes, ESPN’s Mike Reiss reports that Edelman practiced on a limited basis Wednesday. Getting a player like Edelman back at full strength for the playoffs is going to be a huge boost to this offense and this team. Before his injury, Edelman scored seven touchdowns and was averaging seven receptions for 77 yards per game. He’s going to provide a big spark to an already potent offense.
It might seem like the Patriots have lost some of their luster this year, but that’s just because they’ve been dominating for so long that it seems like winning 12 (or 13) games is no big deal.
New England has lost three times this season, by a total of 19 points, all while dealing with injuries to multiple key players.
They’re going to be just fine.
Game of the week
Seattle Seahawks (9-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-2)
Sunday, January 3, 4:25 P.M. ET on FOX
Vegas line: Arizona -6.5
Over/under: 47
