Two-Minute Drill: 2016 Wild Card Weekend Edition
No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 4 Houston Texans
Saturday, January 9 at 4:20 P.M. ET on ESPN/ABC
Line: Kansas City -3
Over/under: 40
Analysis: I know J.J. Watt is an amazing football player and DeAndre Hopkins might have had the most underrated season of any player in the NFL. But when Brian Hoyer is about to face the league’s 3rd-best scoring defense (17.9 points allowed per game), that’s not good. Hoyer isn’t a bad football player, and Bill O’Brien has done a fine job of coaching this season, but fielding four different quarterbacks in one season is a major red flag.
Not only have the Chiefs won 10 games in a row, but according to an ESPN report, sackmaster Justin Houston will be active for this game.
The Texans are at home, and have the defense to limit Kansas City to mostly field goals, but the Chiefs are well aware of how to adapt to a game that unfolds like that. I’m not sure the Texans can hold onto the ball against a defense with Houston rushing the passer and (rookie) cornerback Marcus Peters (league-leader in passes defensed) locking down the secondary.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Texans 16
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals
Saturday, January 9 at 8:15 P.M. ET on CBS
Line: Pittsburgh -3
Over/under: 45.5
Analysis: Both of these teams have a key offensive player in jeopardy of missing this game. DeAngelo Williams (ankle) for the Steelers and Andy Dalton (thumb), who didn’t practice Wednesday, for the Bengals.
Unfortunately for Cincinnati, their key player that’s hurt is their starting quarterback.
I think this game will be determined by how well the Bengals defend Antonio Brown, whom I believe to be the best wide receiver in football and the 2015 Offensive Player of the Year. If they can limit his touches, I think they can win.
However, the Steelers (even assuming Williams doesn’t play) have too many offensive options to look to that the Bengals can’t afford to have tunnel vision on Brown.
Besides, let’s face it. Which team do you trust more in the playoffs: Pittsburgh or Cincinnati?
Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 16
No. 6 Seattle Seahawks at No. 3 Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 10 1:05 P.M. ET on NBC
Line: Seattle -5
Over/under: 40
Analysis: In Week 13, these two teams played each other in Minnesota, but it wasn’t much of a game. The final score that day was Seattle 38, Minnesota 7. According to Sportsbook, the line on that game, from open to close, moved three full points in favor of the Seahawks, which tells you most people knew this wasn’t an even matchup.
This time around, the line moved from Seattle minus-6 to Seattle minus-5, but don’t forget that while at home, the Vikings don’t have the momentum that the Seahawks have.
Seattle has scored 30-plus points in five of their last six games and are expected to re-gain the services of Marshawn Lynch this weekend. Russell Wilson is a legitimate MVP candidate, and since Thanksgiving (six games), Doug Baldwin has gained 530 yards and scored 11 touchdowns receiving.
Adrian Peterson may have won his third-career rushing title this year, but as a whole, I don’t see all that Minnesota offers being able to match all that Seattle offers.
Prediction: Seahawks 21, Vikings 6
No. 5 Green Bay Packers at No. 4 Washington Redskins
Sunday, January 10 at 4:40 P.M. ET on FOX
Line: Green Bay -1
Over/under: 45
Analysis: It’s quite strange to look back on the paths these two teams have taken.
On one hand, the Packers entered 2015 as a high-level contender to win it all. Aaron Rodgers had just won the MVP, Eddie Lacy had another year of experience under his belt, and they had the best thing going for them that a talent-laden team can have: motivation.
In last year’s NFC Championship game, Green Bay went to Seattle and racked up a 16-0 halftime lead, and were winning, 19-7, with less than three minutes remaining in regulation.
However, Seattle scored 15 points in the span of 44 seconds. And after the Packers kicked a field goal to tie the game with just a few seconds left in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks put them away for good in overtime, courtesy of a Jermaine Kearse 35-yard touchdown reception.
Green Bay was three minutes away from a Super Bowl berth last year, and entered this season as motivated as ever. Yet, after winning their first six games, they lost six of their last 10 and have to go on the road to start their postseason for the first time since January 2011. They’re not a mess by any stretch, but they’ve lost a significant amount of luster.
Contrarily, the Redskins have, somehow, found a stable starting quarterback, are playing with confidence, and have put the RGIII drama behind them. They also had a win/loss differential of plus-5 and a point differential of plus-146 compared to last season.
While these teams are trending in two different directions, the playoffs are an opportunity for a team that’s been struggling to hit the reset button. Once that happens, experience usually takes over.
This will be Washington’s first playoff game under Jay Gruden, while Mike McCarthy has led Green Bay to a playoff record of 7-6 (including one Super Bowl championship).
Prediction: Packers 24, Redskins 23
