Today representation for the Ravens and Joe Flacco will convene to renegotiate his contract.
I fully expect that a new deal will be announced (sooner or later) that dramatically reduces Joe’s cap number for this year, increases his guaranteed payout, and keeps him in black and purple for several years to come. And in reality, I love Joe Flacco, and am completely okay with that likelihood.
But the Ravens should really be sitting down with representatives from the Broncos. It’s time to trade Joe Flacco to Denver.
There is only one team whose championship window is definitively open – the only team that is eligible to repeat as champions of the NFL – the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos have many of the requisite pieces to orchestrate a successful title defense, and possibly the cap space to retain the services of some key defenders, but no Quarterback. I’m not going to presume to answer all the objections this article will generate, but if you think this is a non-starter because the Broncos intend to bring back Brock Osweiller, I assert that you don’t bench a QB you have faith in for a shell of Peyton Manning in a win-or-go-home playoff format.
Flacco is an unbelievably attractive addition for Denver. He is familiar with Gary Kubiak and much of his offensive staff, and enjoyed his greatest statistical success in the same system that is currently installed with the Broncos. His base salary for 2016 is $18 million. Denver will save $19 million by parting ways with Peyton Manning. So they can lock in a franchise QB for at least 3 years, and realize $1 million to add to their reported roughly $16.7 million in cap space, which should ultimately be enough to resign Von Miller and Malik Jackson.
For the Ravens, 2016 is a terrible year to part with Flacco. His dead money will hijack a substantial portion of the projected cap (16-17%), and they create just $2.7 million in cap space by moving him. But Ryan Mallett is under contract for only $1.5 million. I am not going to suggest that Mallett for Flacco fulfills the acclaimed 80/20 rule with the amount of dead money that will be left on the ledger, but I do submit that what the Ravens can get in return for Flacco is enough to build a tremendous foundation to compete with Mallett this year, and for years to come.
And for bestowing a franchise QB upon a talented Broncos roster while eating the balance of his signing bonus, the Ravens will exact something in the ballpark of Denver’s 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks this year, their 1st and 3rd round picks next year, and their 1st round pick in 2018 (with a contingency to forfeit some or all of those future picks based on failures to meet playing time thresholds due to injury). Bear in mind that Denver traded Jay Cutler to the Bears for two 1st rounders, a 3rd rounder, and Kyle Orton. And that first pick was #18, not #31.
If you have made it this far without burning me in effigy, and you are willing to stipulate that a team will part with the amount of draft capital I suggest, then you are probably wondering why on earth the Ravens would want to make this trade.
There are an infinite number of philosophies on what script to follow to win the Super Bowl. And there an equal number of opinions about what the Ravens need to do to author those scripts for themselves. Here is my opinion: the Ravens need the absolute best possible combination of 53 players. They need scheme that maximizes those players’ abilities and leadership. That scheme needs to provide cohesion, vision, and inspiration. They need favorable matchups in the regular season and particularly the playoffs, equitable refereeing, and a little bit of luck.
Among those variables, the Ravens can control three. There is perhaps no better Head Coach in terms of setting an organizational tone and rallying a team behind it than John Harbaugh. Harbs’ commitment to Dean Pees on defense, and continuity (finally) with Marc Trestman on offense means that there is a stable scheme aligned with his philosophy.
That leaves the Wizard of Oz to assemble the best possible roster. In the past few years, the Ravens have drafted emerging, scheme-appropriate talent at TE, RB, DL, and ILB. But age, injury, and underperformance leave holes or question marks at WR, OL, CB, OLB, and S. Comprehensive draft research by the now defunct Grantland indicates that there is a substantial dropoff in production after the first round of the draft for WRs, DBs, and pass rushers. If you overlay the needs of the Ravens and the opportunities to make an impact on their roster, you quickly realize that one first round pick is insufficient.
Trading a franchise QB to promote a serviceable one and amass the necessary ammunition to attack this and future drafts reopens – and keep open – our championship window.
Many pundits far smarter than I believe that this year’s draft is deep at every level of defense. They say there are a few very reliable left tackle prospects, too. With double the ammunition in the early rounds, the Ravens will be able to address more of their needs.
The infusion of young early round talent, the deepest group of running backs we’ve had since McGahee, Rice, and McClain, a system that will exploit Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams, and an offseason for Marc Trestman to work his magic on Ryan Mallett will position the Ravens to form the best possible version of their 2016 selves.
Decreasing the average player age and increasing the proportion of affordable rookie contracts to higher priced players could be the best option for the Ravens for the next several years. Even if it comes at the expense of their franchise quarterback.
I love you Joe, but maybe it’s time to say goodbye.
