A few weeks ago, we talked about how the Ravens could use any trade offers sent their way as leverage to jump back one spot to the 49ers’ pick. It’s happened before early in the draft. In 2006, the Ravens gave up a sixth round pick to jump one spot forward to 12th overall to pick Haloti Ngata. The Browns ended up getting their guy, Kamerion Wimbley. In 2012, the Browns forfeited a fourth, fifth, and seventh round pick to move up one spot to third overall for Trent Richardson.
Fortunately for the Browns, this trade wouldn’t involve them, but they’ll probably do just fine on their own drafting a bust.
If they can’t manage to execute that trade (if they do, they should give me a job) and they get a good offer from another team, they may just wind up moving back and grabbing an extra pick or two, especially if they value a few available players similarly.
I know, I know. The Ravens rarely get the chance to pick this high! Why would they pass it up?!
You can groan at me all you want (seriously, though, you should stop. It’s weird), but they also rarely get the opportunity to get so much value out of a draft pick.
The compensation they would get may be even rarer than the chance to pick sixth overall. They could end up with three picks in the first two rounds, and we know that the Ravens value large quantities of draft picks as much as I value large quantities of free Chipotle coupons.
Even if they haven’t been as successful recently, we’ve had times where we’ve been able to enjoy a team as bloated with talent as I am after I eat my double-wrapped, double-meat burrito. You can thank the fact that they aren’t afraid to make moves to pick up as much talent as possible for that.
The drawback is that the further back you go in the draft, the pool of players who will be available becomes increasingly uncertain. This year, that is especially true. You’ll see players like (SPOILER ALERT!) Darron Lee who many have mocked to go in the top 15 while others have him being picked in the 20’s and a few even have him going in the second round.
Now that we have the ground rules and my bragging about eating large quantities of food out of the way, let’s get into it!
Here are the three most likely spots to which the Ravens could move back and two trade back targets at each spot. The additional compensation was calculated using the trade value chart. Teams don’t follow that exactly, but it’s the best tool out there.
Philadelphia Eagles – 8th Overall
Additional compensation: Round 3 Pick 77 or Round 3 Pick 79
Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
The Ravens’ most glaring need is at cornerback, but the best player available at number 6 probably won’t be Hargreaves. It will likely be whoever is still available from the group of Joey Bosa, DeForest Buckner, and Myles Jack. If they aren’t in love with the one or two remaining and move back a couple of spots, Hargreaves could become the best player on the board. Despite being almost a foot shorter than some of the receivers he’ll cover, Hargreaves is a staff favorite here at RSR. If they could grab an extra pick, get the best pure corner in the draft and fill a position of need, the Ravens would look pretty darn smart.
Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Yeah, I know, offensive linemen are boring. But it very well may be the right move. Stanley isn’t a force in the running game, but some analysts think his pass-blocking ability is even better than Laremy Tunsil’s. After Flacco’s injury, Ozzie Newsome and company may eschew the chance at a defensive playmaker to protect their biggest investment.
Los Angeles Rams – 15th overall
Additional Compensation: Round 2 Pick 43 & Round 4 Pick 110
Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
Many are worried that Joey Bosa has hit his ceiling. They don’t have the same concern about Leonard Floyd. He’ll likely start out as a situational third down rusher while he develops his skill set. Floyd has a redonkulous first step and great bend, but it would serve him well if he added a few more pass-rushing moves to his arsenal. Floyd still needs work on setting the edge against the run, too. If he can work on those two things, he could become the best pass rusher in the draft.
Darron Lee, LB, Ohio St.
Lee flashes on film, and he has more than a few highlight plays, but many resulted from the offense focusing on stopping Joey Bosa. Lee has been compared favorably to Myles Jack by some (not me, Ian Wharton). He may not have the pure strength that Jack has, but he managed higher production in college in both the sack and tackle department.
The only issue is whether he can transfer to taking on more contact as a 3-4 inside linebacker. There are question marks about his strength. He doesn’t have the frame to add any more weight, either, so he will likely struggle with guards when they make it to the second level. This is a passing league, though. Linebackers have to roam and cover more than they used to, which makes Lee a good fit for the modern NFL. He has blazing speed for a linebacker at 4.47. I could watch him run around the field all day.
New York Jets – 20th overall
Additional compensation: Round 2 Pick 51, Round 3 Pick 83, 2017 2nd round pick
Note: The compensation was much harder to figure out for this trade. It may even require a 1st round pick next year.
Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
Last we covered Treadwell, he seemed like a lock to be the first receiver drafted. Since then, that lock has become much less secure. Guys like Josh Doctson have overtaken him in some circles, and he may not be the first receiver off the board. Treadwell, though, is the best future complement to Breshad Perriman. He excels in the short and intermediate parts of the field. He holds his own on 9-routes, too, even though six out of the 15 linebackers coming out this year could beat him in a race.
He is the best player available for Flacco’s strengths and what Marc Trestman likes to do on offense.
William Jackson III, CB, Houston
William Jackson is surging up mock drafts, which really just means the mock drafters are starting to catch up to front offices as they evaluate these guys. Unlike Hargreaves who excels in press coverage especially for a corner of his size, Jackson struggles physically at the line of scrimmage. Jackson, however, doesn’t get posted up by bigger receivers. Hargreaves’ and Jackson’s biggest similarity is their ball skills. They’re both good at high pointing the ball, and making good reads. Jackson recorded 5 interceptions in 12 games, which is 1 fewer than the Ravens’ entire defense recorded last season.
Some of you may see this pick and think, “what about Mackensie Alexander?” A corner with no picks in 23 games? No thanks. I’ll take the playmaker.
Titans GM Jon Robinson recently said that the interest has increased a bit and trade talks have become more serious as we approach draft day. If you take him at his word and listen to Peter King’s report from Monday, there is a good chance they move out of that spot. Both common sense and reports would have you believe that it would be for one of the two top quarterbacks. If that happens, this whole post is pretty much moot. The incentive to move up goes away when Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are drafted. Plus, a player who stands above the rest would likely still be available for the Ravens, and they wouldn’t want to move.
If you love one of the players at six, you take him. But if you think you can drop further down the board and pick up another selection or two in the draft and get a similar value, it might be the best move for Baltimore.
