A few weeks ago, I looked at the spots to which the Ravens could trade back and the potential for draft day trades. Things changed shortly after I wrote. Two big-time trades for two teams targeting quarterbacks shook up the top of the draft. That wasn’t the only flaw in my analysis, either.
I used the Jimmy Johnson trade chart to value those picks. If you’re like me and appreciate numbers and analytics, that was a big no-no. It’s akin to using RBI or batting average to evaluate a player in baseball. Those numbers don’t factor enough data. They don’t accurately assess a player’s value to a team. Metrics like wOBA or wRC+ do a better job of looking at the complete picture.
[Opposing view: The Trade That Never Happened]
So the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart has its flaws. Is there another tool we can use created from the data we have? Yes, there is. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator created by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective (could you have come up with a more creative name, Chase?), is based on the Approximate Value figure that Pro Football Reference has created. That stat isn’t perfect – we will never have a statistic that is – but it’s unbiased and based on numbers.
Using that tool, let’s look at the two trades that did happen and a trade that almost happened. I have put the “winner” based on the value of each pick in bold. They’re the “winner” and not the winner (without quotes), because we don’t actually know who will or would have ended up the winner of the trade.
All we know is the historical value of the pick itself, not the value of the player selected.
Trades that happened
2nd round, trade down with Jacksonville
Ravens “win” by 21.19% and receive
Pick 38 (2nd round, value of 11.4, traded)
Pick 146 (5th round, value of 2.9, DE Matt Judon).
Total value: 14.3
Jags “lose” by 2.5 points and receive
Pick 36 (2nd round, value of 11.8, LB Myles Jack).
Total value: 11.8
2nd round, trade down with Miami
Ravens “win” by 36.84% and receive
Pick 42 (2nd round, value of 10.8, DE/OLBÂ Kamalei Correa)
Pick 107 (4th round, value of 4.8, WRÂ Chris Moore).
Total value: 15.6
Dolphins “lose” by 4.2 points and receive
Pick 38 (2nd round, value of 11.4, DB Xavien Howard).
Total value: 11.4
Analysis
As we headed into the second round, I was a self-appointed Noah Spence ambassador. I liked him throughout the draft process. Heading into the second round, he was the player I wanted to fall to us the most. He did, but the Ravens traded back when he was available.
Twice.
In doing so, they gathered greater value if you look at just the picks themselves. In a move that made me feel much better (I’m sure that was their goal), they select a different highly productive small school prospect with the extra pick they received from moving back to 38, college football’s sack leader Matt Judon. They also pick up a raw receiver with solid potential in Chris Moore. Hopefully, he doesn’t turn out like most of the receivers the Ravens have selected before him.
Trade that almost happened
In Peter King’s MMQB column today, he recapped his weekend with the Dallas Cowboys. He spent the entirety of the draft in Dallas’ war room. That gave him a unique perspective of their attempt to trade back to the 6th spot. The two teams couldn’t come to an agreement. Dallas wanted the Ravens to give up the 6th pick and their 3rd round pick (70th overall). The Ravens were only willing to give up their 1st round pick and their 4th round pick (104th overall). Neither were willing to budge.
Let’s look at what kind of value both the Cowboys and Ravens would have received with both proposed trades.
1st round, trade up with Dallas – what Cowboys offered
Ravens would have “lost” by 18.99% and received
Pick 4 (1st round, value of 25.8, would have been Jalen Ramsey).
Cowboys would have “won” by 4.9 points and received
Pick 6 (1st round, value of 23.2, would have probably been Ezekiel Elliott)
Pick 70 (3rd round, value of 7.5, Ravens selected DE Bronson Kaufusi).
1st round, trade up with Dallas – what Ravens offered
Ravens would have “lost” by 9.30% and received
Pick 4 (1st round, value of 25.8, would have been Jalen Ramsey).
Cowboys would have “won” by 2.4 points and received
Pick 6 (1st round, value of 23.2, would have probably been Ezekiel Elliott)
Pick 104 (4th round, value of 5, Ravens selected CB Tavon Young).
Analysis
The Ravens thought the Cowboys’ asking price was too steep. They decided to stay put and grab Ronnie Stanley. If the Ravens had given up the third, it would have delighted plenty of people around town – including me. If Kaufusi doesn’t pan out, it will disappoint even more. From an analytical perspective, more picks means more chances to find a good player. In the end, it was probably better for the Ravens that they were able to do that instead of grabbing more picks.
I wasn’t the biggest fan of Stanley throughout the draft process. I don’t see the tenacity that you want from a tackle. Maybe the thought of Eugene Monroe and his lack of commitment to football has influenced my opinion. Stanley, though, has the chance to be a top 10 tackle. If he does become that, he will be a good pick for the Ravens.
Even if it wasn’t the exciting one, from a numbers point of view, staying put was the smarter choice for Baltimore. Maybe the Ravens are starting to put greater stock into this type of data than other teams. When it comes to draft day trades and their decision to go for it on 4th down more than most, it certainly feels like it.
