When the Ravens traded back into the first round last Thursday night to draft Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, fans exploded with joy across social media. Finally, after years of fielding a boring, stagnant offense, the Ravens flipped the script and are now going in a completely different direction. The thought of having to spend Sunday afternoons in the fall sitting through an uneventful snore fest with big offensive plays few and far between, appears to be on the way out.
Even the local and national media seemed ecstatic over the pick. Now instead of searching for positive headlines after games, they may be forced to decide which dazzling play to highlight. Phone lines and message boards will light up Monday mornings, with chatter about how the Ravens have finally embraced the new style of QB play in the NFL.
Yet after all that, there is still a minority of fans, myself included, who are not thrilled about the pick. After the draft, I concluded that taking Jackson at 32, was the one blemish on an otherwise stellar final draft for Ozzie Newsome.
I kept thinking to myself, “What am I missing?”
“Why am I not as excited as the overwhelming majority of Ravens fans?”
So I scurried the internet and social media to find out why so many are excited over the prospect of Lamar Jackson becoming the Ravens starting QB in 2019. Here are some of the reasons I uncovered:
“Electrifying!”
“Great arm!”
“Will put butts in the seats!”
“New prototypical quarterback in the NFL!”
Got it! He will be fun to watch.
But, I also found several criticisms of Jackson, including: “He is raw” and “Needs to work on accuracy”. Ok. But more importantly, I never could find a consensus that Jackson could be a “franchise quarterback” or “his game would translate into wins at the NFL level” or a “quarterback who could carry a team on his back”. You know, the reasons why the Ravens traded back into the first round to draft him.
Or was it to fill up M&T Bank and make the SportsCenter Top 10?
The Reasoning
Everyone knew, either this year or next, the Ravens needed to draft a QB to be the heir apparent to Joe Flacco. And it makes perfect sense. Flacco will be 33 when the season starts, his back may or may not be an issue and the Ravens can get out of his deal after the season with no guaranteed money left on his contract.
It is probably not a stretch to say that some in the Castle, either front office personnel or coaches, feel as if he has not performed up to the two contracts he has signed since hoisting the Lombardi Trophy and taking home MVP honors in February 2013.
So from an organizational stand point, how do you light a fire under your QB in hopes he leads you back to the playoffs or raises his trade value? For one, you draft his replacement. By doing that, the team officially puts Joe Flacco on notice!
There is no argument over the philosophy.
However, is Flacco’s potential successor (i.e. Jackson) the best answer?
The Pick
Both Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper, Jr. describe Lamar Jackson as having “electrifying upside” and “electric talent”. I contend that “electrifying” is code word for a QB who relies heavily on running because he is not the traditional drop back passer. Other QB’s who once were described using the same word were, Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow, Robert Griffin, III, Vince Young and Michael Vick.
The 2016 Heisman Winner is certainly an intriguing prospect throwing for 9,018 yards and 69 TD’s at Louisville. But there are two numbers that should have the Ravens concerned: 56.8 completion percentage and 4,132 rushing yards.
Let start with the 56.8%…
The second lowest among the five first-round QB’s selected (Josh Allen was the lowest at 56.2%). In Jackson’s final 26 games of his college career, he had just 10 games in which he completed 60% or more of his passes. The general response as to why his accuracy was low is due to poor mechanics. Wasn’t the same thing said 15 years ago about Kyle Boller? And 10 years ago about Joe Flacco? The Ravens vowed to fix the previous two first round QB’s accuracy and that never happened. So why should anyone believe they can fix Lamar?
Remember, Joe Flacco over the last 5 years has completed roughly 63% of his passes and fans are not happy with that number. How will the response be to a 56.8% passer? Even if Jackson raises his completion percentage by 5%, which is a lot, he is still just equaling Flacco. To put it in comparison, it took Matt Ryan 10 years to raise his career completion percentage by 5% since coming out of Boston College. Aaron Rodgers has raised his career completion percentage by just 1.3% and Cam Newton’s has fallen by 6.9%.
4,132…
The number of yards Jackson rushed for over his three years at Louisville. Jackson had more rushing yards and rushing touchdowns (50) then Saquon Barkley, the number one rated running back and second overall pick. I’m not sure how the Ravens should feel about their franchise QB doing more damage on the ground than a franchise RB does. And it begs the question, “Is Jackson really a RB who plays QB?”
Once again, the electrifying talent is by ground, not by air. That’s not exactly a trait many look for in a franchise QB.
Michael Vick
Jackson is not the first QB drafted into the NFL carrying expectations of revolutionizing the position. The same was said of Michael Vick, a walking highlight reel. But those highlights didn’t always translate to wins. During Vick’s career, he only had seven seasons in which he quarterbacked a team in 10 or more games. In those seasons, he finished with a record of 52-42-1 with just three trips to the playoffs where he went (2-3). Ouch!
And in those seven seasons, his defense finished top 15 in the league six of those years.
Randall Cunningham
We can also go back a little further to Randall Cunningham. The biggest problem with Randall was his durability due to his style of play. Cunningham’s playing career spanned from 1985-2001, but like Vick, he started 10 or more games just seven times. There is a pattern here with running QB’s – their lack of durability!
Cunningham also produced plenty of highlights, but yet again, his play didn’t produce any championships or much post season success, things that you want in a franchise QB. To his credit he won an MVP. Cunningham finished with a (3-6) playoff record with no Super Bowl appearances.
More Comparisons
Many pundits have tried to compare Jackson to other recent QB’s, like current Ravens backup Robert Griffin, III or DeShaun Watson.
Please stop!
First, that would be an insult to both players. Griffin who had a similar college style to Jackson where his running ability took priority over the number of times he was allowed to throw the ball. Griffin had a more productive college career finishing with much better passing stats. In his last two years at Baylor, Griffin threw for 7,794 yards, 59 TD’s and completed 69.7% of his passes on 16 more attempts than Jackson. His NFL game, similar to the two players mentioned above, equated to plenty of air time on ESPN but not much else. He took over the NFL with the ‘pistol offense’ that was designed for him and he ran all over NFL defenses – until Haloti Ngata snapped his leg in 2012.
During the following offseason, defensive coordinators figured how to beat the gimmick offense. More injuries followed and shortly thereafter, RG3 became just another back-up. He spent the entire 2017 season out of the league and there is a chance that the Ravens will cut him after the pre-season.
Recently on ESPN, someone compared Lamar Jackson’s style of game to DeShaun Watson. Can we just stop with the nonsense?? Watson played in a more pro-style offense at Clemson and he played well against top notch competition outside of the ACC. In back to back years, Watson went toe to toe with Alabama, which is a breeding ground for NFL defenses. In those two games, Watson completed 64% of his throws going 66-103 and throwing for 825 yards and seven TD’s with one pick. Against ALABAMA!
Don’t get me wrong, Watson did some running, but that wasn’t his first option. During his last two years at Clemson, Watson completed 67.4% of his passes for 8,702 yards with 76TD’s, 30 picks on 1,070 attempts!! Those are potential franchise QB traits.
Greg and Marty
Throughout the entire draft process, when pundits started linking Lamar to the Ravens, the connectivity was rooted in the past successes of Greg Roman and Marty Mornhinweg with similar QB’s.
The key many thought, was what Greg Roman did in San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick from mid-2012-2014. Yes, Roman fit his offense to what would best fit Kaepernick’s style, an early version of a run pass option (R.P.O.). That did quite well, and the offense finished 11th in the league. They rode that all the way to the Super Bowl against the Ravens. But, after an offseason of seeing what the 49ers did, defensive coordinators figured it out and the offense fell to 24th and 20th the next two seasons under Roman who eventually moved on to Buffalo as OC. In his first season with the Bills, the Roman-led offense finished 13th but by season two, Roman was fired just one week into the campaign.
Scapegoat? Sure!
But a quality OC who can tailor offenses to the teams QB, doesn’t get a pink slip after one game!
Then there is Marty, who with the Eagles in 2010 helped get Michael Vick’s career back on track with a similar RPO style. The Eagles finished the season as the number three offense in the league on the heels of Marty’s designs. But yet again, the following season took a dip and while the Eagles offense still remained a top-10 unit, Vick’s completion percentage fell 3%. His TD total dropped from 21 to 18 and INT’s were up from 6 to 14.
And there was no playoff appearance.
Roman and Marty may be key to Jackson’s success but if history is any indication, the success is short-lived.
Looking Back
It is easy to sit here and talk about what the Ravens could have or should have done without giving a clear alternative. I applaud the Ravens for two things, trading back into the first round and for being ahead of the curve on a succession plan at QB. Though I disagree with both tactical maneuvers.
At 32, the Ravens should have considered a home run hitting RB like Nick Chubb or a day one ready starter at center like James Daniels. Taking Daniels at 32, would have allowed the Ravens to use a 6th round pick on a flier at RB (Akrum Wadley or Roc Thomas) or a slot receiver (Brexton Berrios or Trey Quinn) instead of C Bradley Bozeman. I like Bozeman and he could turn into a quality NFL center, but Daniels could have started September 9th against the Bills.
As for the QB succession plan, that really should have waited until 2019. The main reason is because of the uncertainty of the coaching staff. It would shock no one if the Ravens finish 6-10 or 7-9 that Harbs & Co. are sent packing. And if they finish that bad, it is safe to assume Flacco had a pretty lousy year and he will be gone as well. At that point, new GM Eric DeCosta could hire his coach and together they could pick a new QB. If Harbs is gone, DeCosta will now have to limit his coaching search to an offensive minded coach who could create an offense for Lamar, instead of hiring a coach and drafting a QB to fit his offense. This seems kind of backwards.
Looking Ahead
Many will tell you that the 2019 QB class falls well short of the talent that was part of the 2018. But, remember at this time last year, the talk was Darnold, Rosen or Allen would go number one, and when draft day came in 2018 the pick was Baker Mayfield. So a lot can change over the course of the next 52 weeks.
But a few names to keep an eye out for that could be targeted by the Ravens should they have another dismal season, Will Grier of West Virginia and Ryan Finley of NC State.
Grier who has started and won at both Florida and WVU has thrown for 4,692 yards and 44 TD’s in just 17 games while completing 65% of his passes. Grier is poised to lead WVU to a Big 12 title.
Ryan Finley could be the next successful NC State QB to make a name for himself in the NFL following the footsteps of Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Jacoby Brissett. Completing almost 63% of his passes for 6,573 yards over the last two years, the Wolfpack behind Finley, will look to challenge Clemson as the kings of the ACC.
Easton Stick, ever hear of him? He is the QB who took over for Carson Wentz at North Dakota State. All Sticks has done is pick up right where Wentz left off, leading his team to the FCS semi-finals as a sophomore before winning it all as a junior and taking home the game’s MVP award. Sticks looks to improve on his junior campaign where he finished with 2,466 yards, 28 TD’s and rushing for 663 yards. The Ravens have had success finding talent at the FCS level.
Let’s Put a Bow on It!
There is no doubt that Lamar Jackson will make plays on the field with his feet that will end up in highlight videos across the NFL. By all accounts, he will make the Ravens offense less boring and could bring fans back to the stadium and help create a buzz around this team. But history suggests that we shouldn’t get too attached. His style of play has a limited shelf life in the National Football League.
Until Lamar Jackson steps on the field as the starting QB, presumably in 2019, we will be left wondering how this might turn out. The Ravens did succeed in making a splash in the draft, but will the splash produce championships? Again, history provides an answer and it’s a resounding, “No!”
While many will clamor for the Ravens to pull Joe Flacco if he struggles and pave the way for Lamar, keep something in mind. In the previous 12 NFL drafts, a total of 31 QB’s have been taken in the first round and ONLY ONE of those picks led his team to a Super Bowl victory.
You guessed it – Joseph Vincent Flacco.
For the sake of the Ravens and their fans, I hope I am completely wrong. I hope people will save this story and for the next 10 years, remind me of what an idiot I was for writing it.
Never before have I wanted to be more wrong about something then right now.
But until proven otherwise, this is my story and I’m sticking to it.
