The NFL season is almost upon us with the start of training camp across the league. That means it’s also time for us degenerates to come out of hibernation and start gearing up for the new season.
I don’t want to hear about grueling two-a-days. Preparing for NFL betting season, now THIS is hard work (inserts tongue in cheek). So take out that second mortgage or pawn your wife’s wedding ring and let’s get rolling.
NOTE: I’m kidding. Don’t really do any of those things. Be responsible.
We’re going to take a look into the future in this piece and dissect what Bovada has for some of their future lines and season prop bets.
Super Bowl Odds
New England +700
Kansas City +800
New Orleans +850
Los Angeles Rams +900
Chicago +1200
Cleveland +1200
Indianapolis +1400
Los Angeles Chargers +1600
Philadelphia +1600
Green Bay +1800
Pittsburgh +2000
Dallas +2200
Minnesota +2500
San Francisco +3000
Seattle +3000
Atlanta +3300
Baltimore +3300
Houston +3300
Jacksonville +3300
Carolina +4500
Denver +6000
Oakland +6000
Tennessee +7000
Detroit +8000
New York Giants +8000
New York Jets +8000
Tampa Bay +8000
Arizona +10000
Buffalo +10000
Washington +10000
Cincinnati +12500
Miami +15000
As a Ravens fan, my first thought in looking at this is that they are way too low. I can’t understand them being below teams like San Francisco. The same can be said for Houston and Jacksonville, who I think are too low on this list, but hey, Vegas knows more than we do in most cases.
I can’t argue with the top of the chart much. I don’t think New England has enough to win the Super Bowl again this year, but they’ve really done nothing to this point to knock them out of that spot. My two value plays here are the teams that I think will ultimately come out of the AFC and NFC to meet in the Super Bowl this year: Chicago at +1200, and my pick to win it all, the Los Angeles Chargers at +1600. They may have the most complete roster in the NFL and should have a real shot.
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +1600Â
AFC East
New England -500
New York Jets +600
Buffalo +950
Miami +2500
This one is self-explanatory. While I think the Jets and Bills are going to be improved this season, this division is the Patriots’ to lose unfortunately.
My Pick: New England -500
AFC North
Cleveland +120
Pittsburgh +195
Baltimore +295
Cincinnati +1500
Maybe I’m being a homer, but I feel like the Ravens are being undervalued. The losses on the defensive side of the ball are being over-hyped and if they can find a way to get to the quarterback, this defense will be a force. Obviously though, it will come down to Lamar Jackson and whether or not he can find some stickum.
Ultimately, Cleveland is my pick here. I think the combination of their roster on paper and a city starving for a winner will drive them over the top this season.
My Pick: Cleveland +120
AFC South
Indianapolis -105
Houston +275
Jacksonville +400
Tennessee +650
These numbers seem pretty spot on to me. The AFC South and North could potentially be the most up-for-grabs divisions in the NFL this year. You can make a legitimate argument for every team (maybe excluding Cincinnati in the North) to win either division. In the South, I see Jacksonville turning it around a bit, but I’m not sure any of these teams pack the fire power of the Colts. They also happened to take Parris Campbell in this year’s draft, who I think will end up being a steal in the second round.
My Pick: Indianapolis -105
AFC West
Kansas City -150
Los Angeles Chargers +190
Oakland +1100
Denver +1200
You can tell how much better Vegas thinks the Chiefs and Chargers are compared to the rest of the division based on these numbers. I don’t think Oaklavegas or Denver will be all that bad, but Kansas City and Los Angeles are two of the top, probably five teams in the league. If I like them for my Super Bowl pick, I have to also take the Chargers here.
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +190
NFC East
Philadelphia -105
Dallas +140
Washington +900
New York Giants +1200
This is another top-heavy division like the AFC West. Philly and Dallas will battle it out for supremacy but if Carson Wentz can stay healthy, they should edge the Cowboys out in the end.
My Pick: Philadelphia -105
NFC North
Chicago +160
Green Bay +190
Minnesota +240
Detroit +1000
I’m not as high on Green Bay as it seems Vegas is this season. I think Chicago is the cream of the crop in the NFC North and the NFC as a whole this season.
My Pick: Chicago +160
NFC South
New Orleans -180
Atlanta +350
Carolina +500
Tampa Bay +1200
Atlanta was hit hard in 2018 by the injury bug and I see a big bounce-back year for them. I have the Falcons upsetting the Saints and winning the NFC South.
My Pick: Atlanta +350
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams -180
Seattle +275
San Francisco +525
Arizona +2500
I like the favorites in the NFC West. Nothing that the Rams have done this offseason would make me believe they wouldn’t repeat here. The rest of the division also hasn’t improved enough to be able to be a real threat.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams -180
First Head Coach to Leave His Post
Jay Gruden +300
Pat Shurmur +700
Matt Patricia +1000
Bill O’Brien +1200
Dan Quinn +1200
Adam Gase +2000
Mike Tomlin +2000
Kyle Shanahan +3500
John Harbaugh +5000
Bill Belichick +15000
As much as I want to pick Jay Gruden here, I think the pick of Dwayne Haskins buys him at least another year. My pick is going to be Shurmur. Another terrible season coupled with what seems to be unrest in the locker room will spell the end for him in New York. If Eli Manning struggles and then Daniel Jones isn’t the savior they were looking for, that fan base and the New York media will crucify him.
My Pick: Pat Shurmur +700
Most Regular Season Touchdown Passes
Patrick Mahomes +400
Andrew Luck +500
Matt Ryan +700
Aaron Rodgers +900
Baker Mayfield +1400
Drew Brees +2000
Tom Brady +2000
Jared Goff +3500
Derek Carr +6500
Andy Dalton +10000
First thing’s first. Granted, I didn’t list every quarterback here that Bovada had a line out for, but Lamar Jackson didn’t even make their list (neither did Joe Flacco)! Not that I think he has any chance of winning this, but I would have expected him to be there. I believe Mahomes will take a small step back this season and Andrew Luck will have a career year with some weapons around him which will propel him to the league lead here.
My Pick: Andrew Luck +500
Most Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
Davante Adams +1100
DeAndre Hopkins +1200
Travis Kelce +1200
JuJu Smith-Schuster +1500
Odell Beckham Jr. +1600
Julio Jones +1600
Antonio Brown +1600
Michael Thomas +1600
Marquise Brown +10000
Receiving touchdowns and rushing touchdowns are probably the two categories where you would need the most luck. I wouldn’t be surprised with any of these guys winning this category.
I’m going to go with Julio Jones to go along with my picking the Falcons to win the NFC South. They’ll need a big year from him and Matt Ryan if they stand a chance to de-throne the Saints.
My Pick: Julio Jones +1600
Most Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns
Ezekiel Elliott +800
Saquon Barkley +800
Todd Gurley +1200
Nick Chubb +1400
Alvin Kamara +1400
James Connor +1800
Le’Veon Bell +2000
Christian McCaffrey +2000
Mark Ingram +5000
Lamar Jackson +6500
So Lamar Jackson wasn’t on the passing list, but he gets a shout out on the rushing touchdown list. I’ll pause for the Lamar Jackson haters to speak…
Rushing touchdowns is a tough one to bet because there are so many other factors in play. If I had to bet, I would be taking Kamara here. He was having an unbelievable season before Ingram came back last season and subsequently ruined my fantasy team. This year, as the work horse, he should be able to sustain that level throughout the season.
My Pick: Alvin Kamara +1400
NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes +550
Andrew Luck +600
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Baker Mayfield +1100
Carson Wentz +1200
Drew Brees +1200
Tom Brady +1600
Philip Rivers +2000
Russell Wilson +2500
Aaron Donald +4500
Ezekiel Elliott +5000
Lamar Jackson +5000
Le’Veon Bell +5000
Last but not least, who will take home the MVP trophy this season? On the bright side, Vegas has Lamar Jackson on the same level as Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell for what that’s worth…
To me, this will be a two-man race between Luck and Mayfield. I’m fairly confident that Luck will have a career year, but if Mayfield can lead the Browns to the playoffs and perform well, I think we can wrap up the trophy and ship it off to Cleveland. Since I’m leaning toward them playing in January because of what I saw out of Baker last season, I’m picking Mayfield here for MVP.
My Pick: Baker Mayfield +1100
