My Picks
Last Week: 5-10
Overall: 49-71-1 (40.8%)
Score Predictor Picks
Last Week: 6-9
Overall: 75-45-1 (62.5%)
(*The Score Predictor is a tool I created that takes over a decade’s worth of score and spread data to predict the final score of each game. It places higher weights on more recent games as well as games against the opponent that week. Ultimately, it outputs a final home team and away team score that is used to make a pick against the spread.)
Week 8 Whiffs
— Double-digit spreads. I went 1-3 ATS in games with double-digit spreads. When actually shelling out money, I stay away from these games – and this is exactly why.
— Famous Jameis Winston let me down again. He turned the ball over four times (two INTs and two fumbles). I said that if he protected the ball, they would win outright. I’m fairly confident that would have happened, but shame on me for banking on it.
— Buffalo’s defense has looked like a shell of itself the past few weeks in giving up 21 against Miami and then 31 against a struggling Eagles team this week. I didn’t put enough stock in Philadelphia and I got burned.
Even though I had a rough week picking all the games, the three I focused on went 2-1 (Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay). So for me personally, I came out ahead. The score predictor had a rough week as well, going below .500 for the first time this season. Even with that bad record, it was still within six points of the home score in 11 of the 15 games and within five points of the away score in eight of the 15 games.
Favorites had another positive week, but they’re still lagging behind the dogs so far this season. Away dogs are still the spot to capitalize, hitting at 64.5% through eight weeks.
Here are the ATS Rankings through Week 8:
The cream has risen to the top. Arguably the top four teams in most peoples’ power rankings are covering more often this year then their opponents. You don’t normally see that, but we have seen some lopsided games this season, which is contributing to these numbers.
As always, most importantly:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Here are my Week 9 picks…
Thursday – 10/31/19
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (+10, o/u 43.0)
It’s the first game of the week, and I already changed my pick from what my gut tells me. My gut tells me to take the big road underdog here on a Thursday night, but when digging more into the numbers, I don’t think that’s the right play.
Kyler Murray has been sacked 26 times this season, which is third most in the league, and that could increase drastically this week against a fierce 49ers defense. The Cardinals defense also ranks 25th in rush yards allowed and 29th in pass yards allowed so the San Francisco offense should have their way with Arizona. 49ers win big.
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, but just 2-0-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against their division. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 night games.
Score Predictor: San Francisco 19.0 – Arizona 24.0 (Arizona +10)
My Pick: San Francisco -10
Sunday – 11/3/19
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2, o/u 46.5)
This is a critical game for both teams as they try to keep pace with the Colts at the top of the division. With a loss, the Jaguars would find themselves in a bit of a hole to dig out of to try and make the playoffs.
I went back and forth on this one. The loss of J.J. Watt is going to be massive for the Texans defense, but I have faith in the Houston offense to keep their heads above water and sneak out a close victory in London. I like Houston to cover, but barely.
Jacksonville is 2-7 straight up in their last 9 divisional games. Houston is 12-3 straight up in their last 15 games as a favorite.
Score Predictor: Houston 20.7 – Jacksonville 23.0 (Jacksonville +2)
My Pick: Houston -2
Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5, o/u 43.0)
Was last week’s win in Buffalo an aberration or a sign of things to come for the Eagles? I’m not sure I can answer that question, but one thing I do know for sure is that Mitch Trubisky has been, in the words of Charles Barkley, “turrible.” They have been able to get nothing done on offense and a team that was in the Super Bowl conversation before the season started, has now fallen out of favor in the NFC.
Even though this could be a “get right” game for Trubisky against a weaker Philadelphia secondary, I can’t, in good conscience, predict that he turns it around. I’ll take the Eagles to cover.
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after consecutive ATS losses. Philadelphia is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.
Score Predictor: Chicago 18.7 – Philadelphia 31.8 (Philadelphia -5)
My Pick: Philadelphia -5
Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5, o/u OB)
This pick is strictly on the assumption that Patrick Mahomes still won’t play this week. All signs are pointing to him sitting out another week, but anything is possible.
The Vikings love to run the ball, and they do it well. The Chiefs have a hard time stopping the run so I would look for Minnesota to cram the ball down their throats and control the time of possession. This one should be easy this week if the spread stays within two to four points as it has to thus far. I love the Vikings to cover in Kansas City.
Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 early afternoon games. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 November home games.
Score Predictor: Minnesota 23.7 – Kansas City 22.0 (Kansas City +2.5)
My Pick: Minnesota -2.5
Washington Redskins vs. Buffalo Bills (-10, o/u 37.0)
Buffalo’s defense has been exposed a bit the past few weeks against the Miami and Philadelphia offenses, that had struggled prior to facing the Bills. That was eye-opening, as we had seen a Bills defense through the first six weeks of the season that looked like they could be a top 3 unit in the league.
The Bills defense gets back on track this week against a Redskins team that struggles all over the field. I think there are only two teams that I would consider picking the Redskins against: Cincinnati or Miami. Other than that, you may as well pencil me in for the other side each week.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as double-digit underdogs. Buffalo is 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games after consecutive ATS losses.
Score Predictor: Washington 18.1 – Buffalo 22.7 (Washington +10)
My Pick: Buffalo -10
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (PICK, o/u 43.0)
Mason Rudolph was off in Week 8 against the Dolphins. If that continues into this week against a Colts team that is battling for a division crown and a first round bye, things could get ugly for Pittsburgh. The one spot the Steelers would be able to exploit the Colts is on the ground. However, the injury to James Connor and the fact that Jaylen Samuels is just returning from injury make that a tough prospect this week. I like the Colts to go into Pittsburgh and come out with a win.
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games. The Steelers are 2-2 ATS at home this season with an 8.0 average point differential.
Score Predictor: Indianapolis 19.3 – Pittsburgh 22.6 (Pittsburgh PICK)
My Pick: Indianapolis PICK
Tennessee Titans vs. Carolina Panthers (-4, o/u 41.5)
Like the Chargers, I’ve been burned over and over again by the Titans this year. THIS is the week where I get even. The Panthers are a modest 4-point favorite at home against a hot and cold Titans team. Carolina will need to get back on track after being embarrassed against the 49ers last week. They’ll do that, and then some, this week. Carolina by 10+.
Can someone please remind Ryan Tannehill that he’s Ryan Tannehill?
Tennessee is 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games against teams with winning records. The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home after consecutive road games.
Score Predictor: Tennessee 20.3 – Carolina 18.9 (Tennessee +4)
My Pick: Carolina -4
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (+3, o/u 40.5)
If the Redskins/Dolphins game a few weeks back was the Toilet Bowl, this one has to be called the Garbage Disposal Bowl? The Dolphins are trying to lose and the Jets are in disarray. It’s fitting that the Score Predictor has this game as a tie.
Ultimately it comes down to quarterback play. Will Sam Darnold outplay Ryan Fitzpatrick? I don’t feel confident in this pick, but I think he does. Overall, the Jets do have more talent than the Dolphins so I’m going to have to side with them in this game.
The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. Miami is 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games at home against the Jets.
Score Predictor: New York 21.5 – Miami 21.5 (Miami +3)
My Pick: New York -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6, o/u 51.5)
If you can get this game at less than a touchdown, I’d hop on it. Maybe that’s the bitterness in me talking after Jameis Winston let me down again last week in turning the ball over four times, but Seattle should dominate in this one if they can put a complete game together.
I love the matchup in Russell Wilson going up against the Bucs defense just as much as Famous Jameis loves throwing the ball to the other team. Seattle gets 3 turnovers and wins by double-digits.
Seattle is 5-0 straight up this season against teams with losing records, but are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites. The Buccaneers have been a much better road team, going 2-2 ATS with a 2.5 average point differential.
Score Predictor: Tampa Bay 24.3 – Seattle 25.5 (Tampa Bay +6)
My Pick: Seattle -6
Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders (-2, o/u 50.5)
The Raiders haven’t played a home game in Oakland in 48 days. I find it hard to believe the NFL let that happen, but here we are. They’ve played much better than expected over that stretch and come in at 3-4. The Lions, on the other hand, are reeling on defense. Their secondary is banged up and Oakland could exploit that this week.
However, I don’t think the Raiders will. Matthew Stafford has been playing at an extremely high level and I’m going to ride the hot hand. Lions straight up.
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. The Lions are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the West Coast.
Score Predictor: Detroit 22.4 – Oakland 20.7 (Detroit +2)
My Pick: Detroit +2
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (+3, o/u 39.0)
Here’s another one I would hop on early if you can get it at -3. Denver will be starting Brandon Allen for the first start of his career and I think he’ll struggle against a Browns team that can’t afford to lose this game and fall to 2-6. I think Cleveland lays the hammer down on a reeling Denver team in this game and covers easily.
Cleveland is 2-28 straight up in their last 30 games as road underdogs. Denver is 2-2 ATS with a -3.0 average point differential at home this season.
Score Predictor: Cleveland 19.4 – Denver 19.9 (Denver +3)
My Pick: Cleveland -3
Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, o/u 47.0)
The fact that this is only a 3.5-point spread scares me a bit as it seems like it’s in the “too good to be true” realm. The Chargers have been a much better road team, but let’s face it, this team plays 16 road games a year. Their offense has been a mess and that resulted in Ken Whisenhunt getting fired this past week. I don’t foresee things improving against a solid Packers defense.
On offense, Aaron Rodgers is having a MVP-caliber season, but I think Aaron Jones will be the star this week for the Packers. They’ll lean on him heavily on the ground to an easy road win in L.A.
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 November games.
Score Predictor: Green Bay 25.4 – Los Angeles 22.4 (Los Angeles +3.5)
My Pick: Green Bay -3.5
New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens (+3.5, o/u 45.0)
I haven’t been this excited about a regular season game since the Rex Ryan timeout game against this same Patriots team.
The most interesting part of this game is seeing what Bill Belichick has in store for Lamar Jackson. Lamar has proven that he can beat teams in a myriad of different ways so ol’ Billy will have his work cut out for him. My gut tells me that Lamar will have a rough start as he adjusts to what the Patriots throw at him, but will come on in the second half to put some points on the board as the Ravens pound the ball against a Patriots’ rush defense that can be taken advantage of.
The main reason I love the Ravens here is on the back of their defense and what promises to be a raucous home crowd. The Patriots offense doesn’t scare me against this Ravens’ secondary and I think they’ll get just enough pressure on her majesty to get him off his spot and rush him into some bad throws. I look for a low-scoring first half, followed by the Ravens pulling away late. Ravens win outright.
It’ll be the “World’s Largest Insane Asylum 2.0” this Sunday and as Bart Scott said, “Can’t wait!”
Baltimore is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games, but 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
Score Predictor: New England 28.4 – Baltimore 18.8 (New England -3.5)
My Pick: Baltimore +3.5
Monday – 11/4/19
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (+7, o/u 48.0)
The addition of Leonard Williams will have an immediate impact this week for the Giants who have a below-average secondary. Williams will anchor the defensive line for New York, which will limit Ezekiel Elliott’s yardage this week. The Giants will shut down the Cowboys’ run game and force Dak Prescott to beat them.
I don’t have the Giants winning this one, but I do think they’ll keep it close enough to cover the touchdown spread.
Dallas is 7-0 straight up and ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC East. New York is 1-5 straight up and ATS in their last 6 home games.
Score Predictor: Dallas 24.1 – New York 22.2 (New York +7)
My Pick: New York +7
I picked way too many favorites this week for my liking, but there are a lot of tight spreads that could easily go one way or the other.
This is a tough slate of games for me, but the few that I do like are Minnesota (-2.5), Indianapolis (PICK), and Cleveland (-3). I’m looking to improve on my 4-1 mark over the past few weeks with those three games.
Good luck in Week 9!
