At this juncture, you’re either in a championship game, or lamenting fantasy and vowing to never play in season long seasons again.
Either way, you’re still doing DFS, so once again, it’s time to heed my words in Week 16 of fantasy football! Luckily, it appears we don’t have any teams locked into a playoff slot that would allow them to rest their starters (a dilemma we’ll face next week), so we still have a full array of fantasy studs to choose from for a Saturday(!), Sunday and Monday slate of games.
As always, lets’ start with our Baltimore Ravens as they face the Cleveland Browns on Sunday at 1pm.
Stud: Mark Ingram
Lamar is the obvious answer here, but I’m trying to break the mold. The Browns defense looked rather disinterested against the Cardinals, namely in the run game where they gave up 224 rushing yards, one massive chunk at a time. Kenyan Drake found paydirt four times last week, and Ingram will get three this week.
Dud: Hollywood Brown
It’s not that I don’t like Brown, but I think he’s getting locked down by Denzel Ward this week. Which is fine, because my sleeper will find some love…
Sleeper: Gus Edwards
Okay, this is seriously an Edwards game. Ingram will get his touches, but with the potential to lock up the top seed in the AFC, should the Ravens get this game to a point where it’s out of reach for Cleveland, Gus coudl be seeing ample touches. In my estimation, 15 touches at four yards a clip and a score for Edwards would be about right this week, and I’d take 12 fantasy points (FP) here, wouldn’t you?
Stud: Jameis Winston vs Texans
Here comes a shootout, and despite the loss of Mike Evans & Chris Godwin, I expect Jameis Winston to go all ‘guns ablazing’ against a weak Houston defense. Hell, if Breshad Perriman could put up three touchdown receptions from Jameis last week, I’ll bet he can duplicate those efforts this weekend.
Dud: Jared Goff vs 49ers
Goff is so consistently inconsistent this season, it’s hard to trust him against the 49ers this week, who allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing QBs. Check out the Goff Fantasy Point streaks in the last nine games: -3, 28, 26, -1, 4, 2, 27, 19, 19. That three-game skid, by the way? Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore. The 49ers will provide more of the same challenges.
Sleeper: Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Cincy
I love that Fitzmagic never dies. Cincinnati allows the 9th most points to opposing QBs and Fitz is on a pretty solid four-game roll, putting up 20+ points in three of four games. Seems like a slam dunk sleeper to me.
Stud: Miles Sanders vs Cowboys
If you stayed patient with Miles Sanders on your bench this season, it’s surely paid off. Sanders has pumped out 66 FP in the previous three weeks, as is comg off a 35-point performance against the Skins. Dallas may be a tougher matchup (19th in FP allowed to opposing RBs) but Sanders seems to be getting into his stride, and I’m not sure a Dallas defense that’s showing signs of quit will be putting a dent in Sanders’ production this weekend.
Dud: Todd Gurley vs 49ers
Gurley has been on fire of late, posting 58 FP in his last three games. So why is he a dud this week? The 49ers have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. In Gurley’s recent games against other defenses in the bottom-5 for FP allowed to opposing backs, he’s totaled 12 FP (7 vs PIT, 5 vs BAL). I expect this week to be a low scoring affair for Gurley (also won’t help his cause when it’s a high scoring, pass happy game).
Sleeper: Mike Boone vs Packers
With Dalvin Cook likely out this weekend (has not practiced all week, still listed as questionable) and Mattison still sidelined, Boone is likely to get the start versus the Pack. The Packers are stingy on defense, but they do allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Coupled with volume carries, Boone is in good shape for a fantasy tear this weekend.
Stud: Terry McLaurin vs Giants
Scary Terry could be the best wideout of the rookie wide receiver crop in the 2019 season, and his 5/5/130/1 line against the Eagles last week surely helps fuel that narrative. Fortunately for fantasy owners, McLaurin faces an equally inept defense in the Giants this week, who allow the 6th most points to opposing wideouts. EAT, KID.
Dud: Odell Beckham Jr vs Ravens
Marlon Humphrey owns Beckham. Need I say more?
Sleeper: Breshad Perriman vs Texans
Basically the ghost of Christmas past? Perriman has been a solid fantasy option the past three weeks (13 FP vs JAC, 16 FP vs IND, 34 FP vs DET). With no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin in his way, could Perriman be in line for a big game? I believe so, and I’m here to cheer for the former Raven (remember – the Browns quit on him more recently, so anything brilliant he does allows us to laugh at Cleveland once again).
Stud: Tyler Higbee vs 49ers
I don’t love the opponent, but Higbee has been a late season stud for fantasy owners, putting up 64 FP in his past three games. Yes, those three matchups were heavily in favor of TE fantasy production (Arizona allows the most fantasy points to opposing TEs, Seattle the 2nd most, and Dallas the 7th most), and this week against the 49ers is nowhere close to the same, as San Fran has allowed the 3rd fewest points to opposing Tight Ends. Alas… I’m counting on a high scoring affair, which means Higbee should be heavily involved.
Dud: Jack Doyle vs Panthers
When Doyle put up 19 fantasy points back in Week 13, I thought he was primed to be a guy you’d want for the playoff push in fantasy… I was dead wrong. In the past two weeks, Doyle has amassed 8 FP, and this week he faces the Panthers, who have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing Tight Ends. Drop him like it’s hot.
Sleeper: Jacob Hollister vs Cards
While Hollister has seen his targets dwindled from eight to six to three over the past three games, this week’s matchup against the Cardinals – 1st in FP allowed to TEs – has him primed for a bounceback game.
Stud: Steelers vs Jets
I hate to keep putting Pittsburgh into ‘stud’ territory for defenses, but the numbers don’t lie: double-digit fantasy points in 10 out of 14 games this season, and facing an ailing Jets team.
Dud: Packers vs Vikes
Green Bay’s defense has rebounded in the last three games since a -1 FP showing against San Fran, putting up 36 FP over the three-game tear. That’s all great, but Minnesota is allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses and I’m banking on that being the case this weekend.
Sleeper: Bengals vs Fins
Scoff if you must, but the Bengals defense has been better since the bye… barring the two games against the best two teams in the AFC (Ravens, Pats). In their other four games, Cincy’s defense has four picks, a fumble recovery, a safety, and 12 sacks. Miami’s offense may put up some points with Fitzmagic, but the turnovers and sacks are where your money is at for fantasy, and Cincy should capitalize.
Stud: Justin Tucker
Dud: Martin Gramatica
Sleeper: Chad Ochocinco