Last week’s lineup was brought to you by the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce hooked up for three TDs. Damien Williams caught a TD as well on a wheel route and ran for two more scores. Altogether the trio scored a whopping 112.34 points.
Hollywood Brown was one of the lone bright spots for the Ravens offense, going seven catches for 126 yards (22.60 points) including a pretty one-handed grab. The Chiefs were very concerned with keeping things in front of them as it pertained to Will Fuller, but he was still able to shake free for a gain of 39 yards and ended up with five catches for 89 yards (13.90).
The other two RBs in the lineup flopped. The 49ers defense was suffocating, holding Dalvin Cook to 26 total yards. His six receptions “saved” him, but 8.60 points is nowhere near what we were expecting. Jamaal Williams “returned” to the lineup with only nine snaps and two touches (2.20 points). Deebo Samuel had a meh game with 48 total yards on three receptions and a rushing attempt (7.80). The Packers did get the pressure I expected, tallying five sacks; unfortunately they didn’t do anything else (5 points).
The lineup finished with 172.44 points. Enough to do some lower level damage but certainly disappointing considering what the Chiefs trio gave us. I’ll look to correct that for conference championship week.
QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Tennessee
We’ve all got stat overload by this time of the year. At this point we know the top players and matchups but for a small slate like this it’s most important to figure out a game flow and have your conviction in it show through your lineups. This week I’m going to do more walking you thru my thought process than giving you the usual breakdowns.
I suspect Mahomes will be in the vast majority of lineups this week. As much as I wanted to go against the grain, his upside is just too massive to go away from. I’ll probably play a few Tannehil lineups…and a few more Jimmy G lineups but the lion share of my lineups will have Mr. Mahomes at QB.
DraftKings salary: 7,700
RB Damien Williams vs. Tennessee
Williams for me is the RB1 of this slate. He played 62 of the 64 RB snaps last week, gets goal line opportunities as well as high percentage looks in the passing game (Titans gave up the 2nd most receptions to RBs this season). I expect the Chiefs to roll again offensively and much like last week, playing Mahomes and Williams is a great way to lock in all the Chiefs rushing and passing TD’s.
DraftKings salary: 7,000
RB Raheem Mostert vs. Green Bay
This is a “zig while everyone else zags” play. Coleman took advantage of the hot hand and Mostert’s cramps and scored two TDs last week. He’ll likely be the most owned Niners RB but he costs 1,400 more than Mostert and is very unlikely to significantly out touch him.
Mostert wasn’t listed on the injury report this week and has solid odds to step back to the front of this committee. San Francisco is favored by 7 ½ points at home and I expect them to live up to that projection. With the game in control I’ll roll with the back that scored eight TDs from weeks 12 thru 17.
DraftKings salary: 4,300
WR Davante Adams @ San Francisco
Adams is the pulse of this Packers pass offense. His volume will be there regardless but I’m giving him a bump as I expect Green Bay to be playing from behind much of the day. Richard Sherman has been brilliant but doesn’t travel with receivers. Adams will move all around the formation and is the only viable threat the Packers have versus this standout San Fran passing defense.
DraftKings salary: 7,900
WR A.J. Brown @ Kansas City
My expectation that the Chiefs offense stays hot will have ramifications on the other side. Tennessee will be forced to the air much more than in their first two playoffs games, putting Brown squarely into eight to 10 target range…maybe even more. While the Chiefs have been a top-5 unit against WR’s this year they lack a true shutdown corner to shadow him. That’s essentially been the only way to stop Brown since the Titans freed him as their featured player in the passing game.
DraftKings salary: 5,200
WR Mecole Hardman vs. Tennessee
I could go with an Allen Lazard here. I could keep my correlation going and go with Corey Davis but I decided to throw some risk into the lineup. Hardman is clearly behind Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson from a playing time perspective but he’s so electric that I’ll take my chances on what’s likely very minimal touches because with his level of speed all it takes is one. It also helps that he’s a special returner who could get me six points without a catch.
DraftKings salary: 3,800
TE Travis Kelce vs. Tennessee
I’m continuing to lean in on the Kansas City route. Early in the week this would have been George Kittle but I have concerns about just how much the 49ers will actually throw the ball on Sunday versus a bad Packers run defense. Seeing that I don’t expect the Packers to put up a huge fight on offense this week either I think we’ll see A LOT of run attempts for them.
The Chiefs don’t operate in that manner. They’ll have their foot on the gas looking to score at every opportunity. Kelce will be hella popular after scoring three TDs last week and as much I hate to follow the crowd I’d be stupid not to in this case.
You could reconfigure this lineup and swap out Kelce for Tyreek Hill to be contrarian. I’ll do that some, but Hill has 14 targets in the last three weeks; keep that mind when deciding who to bet on.
DraftKings salary: 7,100
Flex Jonnu Smith @ Kansas City
Brown will need some help trying to overcome the hypothetical deficit I’ve given the Titans.
Corey Davis was viable here…Tajae Sharpe and Adam Humphries to a lesser extent but Jonnu’s matchup and ability to rip off big plays were the deciding factors for me. While the Chiefs were 4th in fantasy points allowed per game to WRs, they were 20th versus tight ends. Only the Cowboys allowed more targets per game to the position.
Khalif Raymond was under consideration as well for that big play potential but he also offers zero floor. With Hardman already in the lineup that’s a little bit too risky for me.
DraftKings salary: 3,400
Defense Chiefs vs. Green Bay
I honestly prefer 49ers defense this week. I’m essentially just hunting drop backs and I think the odds of the Titans establishing a running game versus the Chiefs is far greater than the Packers doing so in San Fran.
With that being said, the last two games the Titans were forced to play from behind Tannehil was sacked 9 times. As good as Tannehil has played it’s not difficult to see him rattled into a couple turnovers in a negative game script on the road. As I continue to bet on my convictions this play is twofold. The Chiefs play from ahead, pin their ears back to get after Tannehil. There’s also the threat of Mecole Hardman returning a punt or kick for a TD and giving us 12 points.
Bonus: I’ll still play a variation of this lineup with the Niners defense as it still correlates well with Raheem Mostert.
DraftKings salary: 3,100