Due to last week’s split slate, you got a bonus lineup last week and both did pretty solid. On Saturday the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs stack shredded per usual (63.16 combined points). The Bills continued their generosity to the tight end position, allowing Jack Doyle to go 7-70-1 (20 points). Cam Akers was another lineup highlight, turning 30 touches into 176 yards and a TD (28.60 points). John Brown’s donut robbed the lineup of any big money aspirations, but the 169.46 total might’ve gotten you somewhere in some smaller field stuff.
On Sunday, albeit not in the fashion I suspected…the Steelers triple stack all got there. Playing from way behind in a shocking rout by the Browns, Big Ben, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and Eric Ebron combined for 104.84 points. Jarvis Landry (20.20 points) and Marquise Brown (22.80 points) came thru with strong contributions of their own. The biggest shock of this lineup was Derrick Henry being held to 40 yards rushing and no TDs (8.10 points) by a locked in Ravens run defense. The Saints defense didn’t give up the splash we were looking for either (5 points).
Much like the Saturday lineup, Sunday got you there on a smaller scale…but that grand scale action is what we need. On to the divisional round.
QB Lamar Jackson @ Buffalo
Many might get scared away from this game because of the potential for show and the Ravens’ running ways but this spot quietly has shootout vibes, so I decided I wanted to invest. Speaking of this Ravens run game…Lamar has been on a rampage on the ground, going for at least 80 yards rushing in each of the last three games.
As Sheila Kapadia and Ted Nguyen of the Athletic pointed out in an article they did about this game…When the Bills played a similarly constructed run game in Week 10 against the Cardinals they got rocked for over 200 yards on the ground and Kyler Murray rushed for 61 yards and 2 TDs.
Lamar is one of the truly special players in the league and on this slate, capable of a performance that would make him a must have to win a large field tournament.
DraftKings salary: 7,600
RB J.K. Dobbins @ Buffalo
This play is all about upside. People will look at his nine opportunities last week and the fact that he continues to cede work to Gus Edwards and balk at playing him at this price. But me, an intellectual…will lean on the upside as a try to construct a Ravens ball out lineup.
The Bills underwhelmed a bit for their standards to start the year and tightened up as the year went on. They still allowed 4.6 yards per carry and 29th in expected points added by rushing defense according to pro football reference.
The potential of only 10 touches for Dobbins is worrisome but it’s balanced by the threat of him turning one of them into a long TD.
DraftKings salary: 6,000
RB Cam Akers @ Green Bay
This comes down to volume and my confidence in the Rams defense. That feels counterintuitive to say with just how locked in Aaron Rodgers has been, but this Brandon Staley-led unit has truly been a standout this season and I feel pretty good about projecting their ability to keep this game neutral enough for the Rams to ride Akers to the degree they’d like.
If they get their wish, they’ll be doing so versus a Packers defense that allowed the 5th most DK points per game. Because of Akers’ big game last week and his high touch projection he’ll probably be popular, but I think we can throw in a couple curve balls to standout a bit from the field.
DraftKings salary: 5,700
WR Stefon Diggs vs. Baltimore
Diggs is too cheap for a player of his caliber and despite a tough matchup he still projects well. With Lamar and Dobbins already on board, Diggs is the most natural run back. The sledding may be tougher, but Diggs has only had fewer than eight targets in a game twice this season while leading the NFL in receiving yards.
If my lineup story comes true, he could be even busier than normal making him a core play this weekend.
DraftKings salary: 7,300
WR Cole Beasley vs. Baltimore
Leaning further in on the story I’m looking to tell. The Bills don’t need help getting their pass attempts in…they’ve morphed into a pass-centric offense built around Allen’s arm but if the Ravens get ahead and force a few more attempts that can’t be a bad thing, right?
When the teams faced each other last year, stud Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey went into the slot versus Beasley…something that could very well happen again even with the presence of Stefon Diggs but I still like the volume he’ll likely receive at this price point.
DraftKings salary: 4,900
WR Emmanuel Sanders vs. Tampa Bay
This Bucs-Saints matchup features two stud run defenses, so I expect the pass attempts to be plentiful in this one. Michael Thomas will get the attention in lineups, but he’ll also probably get standout Bucs corner Carlton Davis. Manny Sanders will be left to tangle with the vulnerable Sean Murphy-Bunting. Coming off a game where he had two catches for three yards nobody will play him but he’s still a full-time player who should get his share of opportunities. He’s also scored TDs in both of his matchups with Tampa Bay this season.
DraftKings salary: 4,500
TE Mark Andrews @ Buffalo
Maybe if one of us suited up at TE for the Colts last week we could’ve gotten a catch too? We were on the side of right with Jack Doyle’s 7-70-1 line, but the other two Colts receivers combined for seven more catches. This is a continuing trend as the Bills gave up the most catches to the position this season. With a player as talented as Andrews on the docket for this week and Lamar already in our lineup it makes perfect sense to pair the two. Andrews has two-TD upside most any week based on how he’s used but he has that and increased potential volume on his side this week.
DraftKings salary: 5,000
Flex Jarvis Landry @ Kansas City
Kansas City stacks will be expensive and popular this week. I’ll be working tirelessly to get my fair of them in unique ways but my desire to heavily invest in Bills-Ravens took me to a different build here. I can still however benefit from a quality Chiefs offensive performance by rolling with Landry though. He’s pretty much a lock for seven to eight targets but if the Browns are playing from well behind that number could get into the double digits quick. I like the Browns chances of moving the football in this game and thus like Landry even against a Chiefs team that defends the position well.
DraftKings salary: 5,600
Defense Ravens Def @ Buffalo
Most of my defensive exposure will come from this game, I think. I just expect this game to have some back-and-forth action. I expect both QB’s to take sacks but as good as Josh Allen has been I’m willing to bet on him being baited into some mistakes by Ravens DC, Wink Martindale. Especially at this price.
DraftKings salary: 2,800