Week NFL 5 Picks

My Picks

Last Week: 4-1 (80.0%)

Overall: 13-7 (65.0%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 1-0

Overall: 3-1 (75.0%)

Week 4 Whiffs:

— I’m done putting faith in the Steelers. Their defense played “okay” but Big Ben is looking his age this season. I think it’s time to move on Steeler fans.

Through Week 4, here are the ATS Rankings:

The favorites got a few back this week, but dogs are still ahead with a 57.8% winning percentage through four weeks. If you’re looking to make real money, away underdogs of three or less are hitting at 80%.

As always, here is probably the most important line that you will read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money.  I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along.  I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read.  Let’s keep it rolling to Week 5…

Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3, o/u 51)

Aside from their season-opening win over Minnesota, this game against the Packers will be a true test for the up-and-coming Bengals. If they can somehow shut down Aaron Rodgers and pull out a win at home against the Packers, they may be for real. 

After getting embarrassed in their season opening loss to New Orleans, the Packers have rebounded and are beginning to look like a NFC title contender again. They for sure circled this game as a win before the season and I still think they’ll get that ‘W’ this week albeit with a tighter game than they had anticipated. It will be a close game until the end, but I can’t envision the Packers not covering the 3 points.

Green Bay is 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games. The Bengals are 2-2 ATS on the season, winning both of their home games by three points.

My Pick: Green Bay -3 

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San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, o/u 49.5)

This line has moved on the speculation that Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be able to suit up this week. While that may end up being true, 5.5 points still seems like a lot to me.

The 49ers’ defense has been down to this point this season, but they still have the ability to get hot and shut down a Cardinals’ offense that is the top ranked scoring offense in the NFL. Arizona is also coming off another division matchup against the Rams last week so I’m expecting some sort of a letdown. I’ll take the 49ers and the points.

Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with San Francisco, but are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. The 49ers are 3-0 straight up in their last three road games.

My Pick: San Francisco +5.5

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5, o/u 45.5)

Christian McCaffrey is listed as questionable this week and if he ends up playing, I’m way less confident about this pick. That said, I have a feeling he’ll sit out one more week which will give the Eagles a great shot to steal one in Carolina.

Philadelphia has been torched the past two weeks against Kansas City and Dallas, but those are two of the more high powered units in the league. They’ll get a little reprieve against the Panthers. The Eagles’ defense will show up with a chip on their shoulder and prove that the last two weeks was not the norm for this team. I’ll take the Eagles to cover and possibly win outright.

My Pick: Philadelphia +3.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, o/u 45)

Okay NFL, I’m tired (literally) of these prime time games. They’re nice every once in awhile, but three of the first five weeks?

When I made my bets for division winners at the beginning of the season, I had the Colts as the team coming out of the AFC South. Early in the season, that hasn’t looked to be a smart bet. Their defense has been serviceable, but their offense has left a lot to be desired. Expectations were high with the addition of Carson Wentz, but he’s looked a lot like the Wentz we saw in his last few years in Philadelphia as opposed to the Wentz we saw prior to his injury in 2017.

The Ravens on the other hand are looking to set the NFL record for most consecutive games rushing for over 100 yards. They’ll do that this week with ease and without any last-second Lamar keepers. This game is one that the Ravens need to have and I think they’ll handle the Colts similarly to how they handled Denver in Week 4.

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Ravens 27 – Colts 10

My Pick: Baltimore -6.5

BDC Lock of the Week

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-8, o/u 49.5)

Take Minnesota’s 1-3 record with a grain of salt. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL through the first four weeks. The Vikings have also struggled to run the ball this season which has been their bread and butter since Dalvin Cook‘s emergence.

So why are they my lock of the week you ask?

Easy, they’re playing the Lions. All the Lions seem to do is find ways to lose. However, this week, they won’t need to find a way to lose. The Vikings will get their running game back on track against the 24th ranked rush defense in the NFL and run away with this one.

Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, but are 6-1 ATS against the Lions in their last seven matchups.

My Pick: Minnesota -8

After a down Week 3, we turned it around last week. Hopefully we can keep the momentum going.

Good luck everybody!

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