With the Ravens on a four-game losing streak and only two games left to end their 2021 season, there’s been some rumblings amongst the fanbase suggesting the Ravens should ‘tank’ the final two games to improve draft position.
Here’s the logic by those in the tank-think-tank: Lamar Jackson still isn’t back at practice (as of this writing) and between the season-ending injuries, the recent injuries, and COVID body count, the Ravens are in no way a true contender for a Super Bowl. With the Ravens season just a steady dose of disappointment as they swirl down the drain… why risk Lamar (assuming he’s not yet 100%) coming back and putting him behind a shaky/injured O-Line? Why go all out for a Wild Card spot that’s not assured after last Sunday’s loss, and even if they make it how far could they go with this depleted lineup?
Why not just mail it in and let the draft position improve, and start focusing on 2022?
The obvious answer is that between COVID for all teams, officiating inconsistencies, and so many teams experiencing ups and downs, the playoffs are likely a total crapshoot, and the Ravens should absolutely fight to get in because ‘any given Sunday’ is a thing.
Great.
But my focus here is really to discredit the notion that the Ravens can drastically improve their draft position by tanking, since that seems to be the main focus/justification when it comes to tanking.
Out of the gates, we need to look at the current records in the NFL in contrast to where the Ravens (8-7) sit. If Baltimore were to lose their final two games, they’d drop to 8-9 on the season… which would have Baltimore tied for 10th, with nine teams locked into the top nine picks, even if they won out (they won’t).
So Baltimore could get the tenth overall pick!!!
Except… there’s the tie breaker scenarios, which means we need to look at every team currently sitting at 7-8 or 8-7, as potential options to finish either 7-10 or 8-9, thus knocking these hypothetical 8-9 Ravens further up the draft board. Currently, eleven teams fall into this range of record: Miami (8-7), Philadelphia (8-7), Baltimore (8-7), Las Vegas (8-7), LA Chargers (8-7), Pittsburgh (7-7-1), Minnesota (7-8), Atlanta (7-8), New Orleans (7-8), Cleveland (7-8), and Denver (7-8).
Just a quick half-way mark disclaimer: I’m going to take a very simple approach to this, and not act like I’m a true statistician.
For starters let’s look at the tie scenario in which the Ravens and multiple other teams finish 8-9. In that event- based on current strength of schedule, which is the first tie breaker- the Ravens (18th in SoS YTD) would finish behind Minnesota, Vegas, Cleveland, Atlanta, Denver, and Miami.
In essence, all things equal in a full blown 8-9 tiebreaker scenario, the Ravens would likely be looking at the 16th overall pick. Currently, the Ravens are sitting at the 20th overall pick, so a drop of just four picks for a ‘tank’ job in this scenario.
Of course, there’s a chance that the aforementioned teams finish above 8-9. In order for that to happen, the following would need to occur.
- MIN wins vs GB (11-4) and CHI (5-10)
- LV win vs IND (9-6) or LAC (8-7)
- CLE win vs PIT (7-7-1) and CIN (9-6)
- ATL win vs BUF (9-6) and NO (7-8)
- DEN win vs LAC (8-7) and KC (11-4)
- MIA win vs TEN (10-5) or NE (9-6)
I’ll go ahead and say the Vikings beating the Packers, Raiders beating both the Colts and Chargers, Browns beating Cincy, Falcons beating the Bills, and the Broncos beating the Chiefs are all highly unlikely scenarios.
Based on the above, the best the Ravens should be able to get would be the 15th overall pick in a full out tank job (assuming Miami can beat the Titans or Patriots, which I think it still a reach).
Let’s throw one more wrinkle into the mix!
Even if the Ravens were to lose out and finish 8-9, every 7-8 team could win out to jump to 9-8, right?
Yea, that still can’t logistically happen.
For starters, New Orleans and Atlanta face each other in Week 18, so one will surely lose (or tie, but same results). The other four teams at 7-8 will be facing off with division leaders (MIN vs GB, ATL vs BUF, CLE vs CIN, DEN vs KC) with all of these division leaders still fighting for the Round One bye. The likelihood that this happens is insanely low.
I promise… last note…
Let’s play the odds for all twelve teams based on current point spreads, while assuming Baltimore loses out. In that scenario, the Ravens would finish 8-9, and would sit at pick 16 overall, behind Denver, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Miami, Vegas and Minnesota (plus the other nine teams locked into the top-9 picks).
All in all, the idea of ‘tanking’ with two weeks left in the season, seems sort of foolish when it’ll net you no more than 4-5 spots in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Instead, let’s all be more like the entire Ravens franchise, and focus on one thing only:
JUST WIN, BABY!
