There was a time when Ozzie Newsome’s approach to the offseason was to fill the team’s needs through free agency so that the Ravens could remain true to their draft board and select the best player available regardless of need. In theory, that sounds pretty logical. In reality, it’s not quite that simple. The truth be told, the Ravens have too many needs – too many holes to fill prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, particularly in light of their financial wherewithal or lack thereof. In other words, implementing Ozzie’s strategy this offseason is a daunting task given the Ravens’ limited cap space.
At the moment, with 49 players under contract given the re-signing of Tony Jefferson, the Ravens sit at roughly $7.015M under the cap, but still have their ERFAs and RFAs to tender. Once those are accomplished, the Ravens’ Cap space will fall to $5.5M. And as we painfully witnessed in 2021, they’ll need a rainy day fund of roughly $6M to address roster issues triggered by injuries.
We also learned during GM Eric DeCosta’s postseason presser, that the team had some trade opportunities during the 2021 season that they weren’t able to execute due to cap limitations. Such trades oftentimes represent great value (see Marcus Peters) and the guess here is that DeCosta will want to set aside some cap space to take advantage of such appealing contingencies.
So there’s work to be done and to start, we need digest the complete cap picture as of today.
In essence, what this chart describes, is a team that currently CANNOT be players in free agency AT ALL unless they make some roster decisions to free up some cap space. They should, and they will. As you can see from the chart, given the money that has to be set aside, the Ravens have no choice but to make some moves. Without some roster augmentation, DeCosta can’t even afford a Happy Meal. The potential effective (i.e. spendable) cap space, even after the releases of Alejandro Villanueva and Miles Boykin, is a negative $3.33M.
With this uphill battle ahead, and in order for DeCosta to do some shopping – to spackle up a few of those roster holes once the new league year commences on March 16, some cap space is needed. And to accomplish that, difficult choices will have to be made. So buckle up those chinstraps, keep your arms and hands inside the cart at all times, and enjoy the ride.
To begin with, and in the spirit of Ozzie’s decades old strategy, let’s first define the Ravens most pressing needs. An argument could be made that three, even four positions are equally important – equally lacking. And while none of these positional needs are unimportant, a few are a tad ahead in the pecking order, and I’ll list them accordingly with proper rationale to follow:
• Interior Defensive Line
• Offensive Line
• Edge Defender
• Secondary
• Inside Linebacker
• Running Back
• Tight End
• Wide Receiver
So much of the focus this offseason has been on the Ravens offense. How do they fix an offense that in 2019 and 2020 scored 31.9 PPG (1st) and 27.3 (9th), respectively? In 2021 Greg Roman’s unit averaged just 22.8 points per game, good for a ranking of 17. Without question, injuries factored into the equation, particularly in the backfield and across the offensive front – a front that is clearly in need of reinforcements. And while such enhancements are a necessity, not an option, I would argue that given the injuries, the Ravens offense was relatively resourceful and that six-game losing streak to end the 2021 season was more a function of a defense that time and time again couldn’t get off the field in the games’ most decisive moments. Yes, O-line Coach Joe D’Alessandris needs some help but for me, that help is a slight notch below the aid required for the team’s interior defensive line.
As if it’s a rite of passage, the Ravens have been a team determined to stop the run. Mission accomplished. The team ranked second in the league, yielding a stingy 84.5 YPG by ground. Yet the financial resources allocated to this achievement coupled with the league’s focus upon advancing the ball by air, just don’t add up. The Ravens were dead last defending the pass in 2021 giving up 278.9 YPG – 13.4 more than Seattle’s 31st-ranked passing defense. They also were dead last in yards per completion at 11.9 and tied for last with Detroit in yards allowed per attempt at 7.6.
Why bother running against the Ravens with results like this?
An interior defensive line that can penetrate the backfield, collapse the pocket and force indecisiveness upon opposing quarterbacks, enabling the edge defenders to get home, would serve to move QBs off their preferred mark, disrupt the timing of the passing game and create opportunities for turnovers. In 2021 the Ravens were tied for 28th in turnovers per game (0.9) and they were tied for 27th at (-0.6) turnover margin per game. Eleven playoff teams finished in the top half of the league in each of these categories.
Adding strength on the edge is critical. How many times can you recall the Ravens defense getting off the field late in the game following a sack?
Go ahead and ponder that.
I’ll wait.
The Ravens secondary needs quality depth. While Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters are a good place to start, the team lacks playmakers on the defensive backend. They don’t have a rangy safety to cover real estate and minimize explosive plays. The Ravens were worst in the league in that category. Their philanthropic defense gave up 74 plays of 20+ yards and 16 plays of 40+ yards. Perhaps even more concerning are the communication lapses in the secondary. Without question, injuries played a role but the busted coverages were too common and they regularly occurred even when the unit was nearly at full strength.
Patrick Queen needs a reliable sidekick who can run sideline to sideline and be a plus player in coverage. In the offensive backfield the Ravens have talent but it would be short-sighted of them to assume that J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill will all be 100% in 2022 as each attempts to bounce back from significant leg injuries. At tight end, the Ravens put the best in the business out on the field but behind him, the reserves are hardly a threat. Nick Boyle was a shell of himself in 2021 and there are no guarantees that he’ll ever be the same player again. Eric Tomlinson proved serviceable but could he ever be considered a threat in the passing game? Josh Oliver is the closest thing the team has to a reserve pass-catching TE but if the Ravens were forced to use the former Jaguar who was discarded for a 7th-round pick, the drop off from Andrews to Oliver represents a free-fall off a cliff.
As for wide receiver, it could be argued that the Ravens would benefit from a veteran receiver who can make contested catches and be another deep threat, but given the team’s cap situation, that is a pipe-dream at worst, a luxury at best.
Stepping Up
The NFL is dynamic. Change is all around and that includes the change triggered by player development and player declination, spawned by age and a decaying skill set. The reality of 2022 is that the Ravens don’t have a big enough bank account to stroke checks for multiple free agents to find solutions for their offseason challenges. And while they do have a nice array of draft picks to uncover quality depth, they lack high-end draft capital to assure an immediate impact. The Ravens will need their young talent to evolve — players such as Odafe Oweh, Rashod Bateman, Brandon Stephens, Ben Cleveland and Daelin Hayes. They must become effective starters at best, dependable depth at worst. The effectiveness with which the coaching staff and front office projects the respective growth of these players should influence their strategy in free agency.
Ravens Free Agents
Before they can turn their attention towards unrestricted free agents and potential cap casualties from other teams (a DeCosta preference given the cost and their exclusion from the comp pick equation) the Ravens must first determine which of their own free agents are worthy keeps – which fall under the category of “right player, right price”? Here is the list of the Ravens free agents:
• LB Otaro Alaka (RFA)
• CB Anthony Averett
• LB Chris Board
• OC Bradley Bozeman
• LB Josh Bynes
• DT Calais Campbell
• S DeShon Elliott
• DT Justin Ellis
• LB L.J. Fort
• RB Devonta Freeman
• OLB Justin Houston
• QB Josh Johnson
• S Anthony Levine
• OLB Pernell McPhee
• RB Latavius Murray
• FB Patrick Ricard
• CB Kevon Seymour
• OT David Sharpe
• CB Jimmy Smith
• TE Eric Tomlinson
• WR Sammy Watkins
• CB Chris Westry (RFA)
• DT Brandon Williams
Joined by RSR’s Brian McFarland and Dev Panchwagh, the three of us combed through this list above, analyzing the relative importance of each to the team and their respective fit given the cap constraints. Of the two restricted free agents (RFA), we concluded that the Ravens could easily part ways with Alaka but that they should bring back Westry on a modest two-year deal that would fall short of the $2.433M that the low RFA offer commands.
From the list of UFA’s we concluded that the right player, right price credo would apply to the following and that the Ravens would figure out a way to retain their services prior to the 2022 NFL Draft: Josh Bynes; Calais Campbell; L.J. Fort. Keep in mind that each such signing chips away at the team’s cap space.
After the draft we concluded that the following players could be retained depending on how the draft goes: Justin Ellis; Justin Houston; Eric Tomlinson.
[Related Article: How to Handle The Ravens 21 Free Agents]
Creating Cap Space
During his postseason presser, Eric DeCosta reminded us all that the Ravens have never been big players in free agency. The statement was purposeful. That said, if there’s an available player who has strong appeal, the aggressive Ravens GM will pounce, as evidenced by the bold albeit off-target acquisition of Earl Thomas. But in order to make a bold move or a very intuitive one that offers a great return on investment like Kevin Zeitler, the team has no choice but to surgically apply a scalpel to their roster.
In his chart above, Brian McFarland identifies 11 candidates who the Ravens could work with to create additional cap space. Let’s discuss each.
Alejandro Villanueva: AV was seen after the Ravens 2021 overtime loss to the Steelers, absorbing the sights and sounds as the curtain fell upon the team’s season and perhaps Villanueva’s career – certainly his career in Charm City. Cap Savings, $6M.
Miles Boykin: The former Golden Domer is about to enter his fourth season in the league. He was targeted just once in 2021 during his 8 active games and had just 35 offensive snaps. His 417 career special teams snaps have produced a grand total of 2 tackles. This is an easy one. Cap Savings, $2.54M
Tavon Young: Young is a fine slot corner and pound-for-pound, one of the team’s best tacklers who possesses good instincts as a blitzer. But he just doesn’t make enough plays to justify a salary of $5.845M. Plus his career is littered with games missed due to injury. There’s a chance that Tavon could return to the Ravens before training camp at a significantly reduced number. The market is not going to shell out big dollars for his services. Cap Savings, $5.845M
Marlon Humphrey: Perhaps the easiest choice on the board. A restructure of Marlon’s deal, a solid decision since he’s expected to remain productive through the balance of his contract, triggers significant cap space. Cap Savings, $7.172M
Kevin Zeitler: One of the league’s most understated great free agent signings from 2021, a simple restructure for the 32-year-old guard who graded out as 10th of 82 guards graded by Pro Football Focus. Cap Savings, $2.44M
Marcus Peters: Clearly the Ravens secondary missed the swagger and playmaking ability of the 29-year-old, three-time Pro Bowler. Peters has one year left on his current deal. An extension could trigger as much as $7M in cap space. But we’ll opt for a more modest one so as not to kick the can too far down the road. Cap Savings, $4M
Lamar Jackson: I can’t think of another situation involving a big-time potential future free agent, that was as interesting and at the same time as perplexing as that involving the Ravens would-be franchise quarterback. Lamar is obviously betting on himself in 2022 and unless the Ravens blink and commit more money to him than they’d like, Lamar seems content to ride it out this season. That said, a market value contract based upon comparables would represent a big chunk of change. And that chunk probably just swelled on the heels of Aaron Rodger’s blockbuster new deal that reportedly includes $153M in guarantees. Cap Savings, $10-12M
Other Cap Savings Options
Ronnie Stanley: Given his $9.5M base salary, a Stanley restructure would trigger $6.35M in cap savings but if I’m EDC, I pump the brakes on this option unless he’s absolutely sure that the doctors have corrected Stanley’s ankle sufficiently AND that Stanley is willing to put in the work to rehab. I don’t trust the track record here and therefore I’m reluctant to use the credit card on this one.
Ja’Wuan James: I find it hard to believe that EDC would sign James last season, pay him $660,000 to be an observer, only to let him go before 2022 OTA’s. James could come into camp and struggle. He’s dressed on Sundays just three times since 2019. Eventually he may be let go depending upon who the Ravens bring in via the draft or free agency, but now is not the time for that. James could contribute to the aforementioned rainy day fund of $6M for injuries (highlighted in the chart above) with a post-training-camp release. But for now, he stays.
Ben Powers: If the Ravens improve their offensive line as they seem determined to, Powers could be on the outside looking in. But like James, I see Powers hanging around for training camp and maybe he’s even be a trade candidate for a 2023 late-round pick. His savings would be $2.54M.
Sam Koch: No one would argue that Sam isn’t as good as he once was. In 2021 he finished 8th in the league with punts downed inside the 20 with 26. However, his net average of 40 yards was in the bottom half of the league, ranking 18th, and his overall average of 44.4 yards was 24th in the league. The league leader, the Raiders A.J. Cole, averaged 50 yards per punt. So if you extrapolate the data, Koch punted 4.18 times per game and with a 5.6 shortfall in average relative to Cole’s. Add it up and that equates to 23.4 yards per game in field position, coverage notwithstanding. The 10th best punter averaged 46.9 yards per punt, which would equate to 10 ½ yards in field position per game.
An upgrade at the position will one day be ushered into Baltimore, but given Koch’s importance to the placekicking operation, and the modest shortfall in field position, now is not the time to replace the career Raven – one who I would argue belongs in the team’s Ring of Honor.
Cap Space Carving Conclusion
So, given all of the above, the Ravens could create $28M in cap space if EDC accepts the aforementioned recommendations without extending Lamar. If the Ravens are successful in their attempts to make Jackson one of the richest players in NFL history, the Ravens could add another $10-12M to that total depending upon the structure.
But to land upon a spending budget, we must first weigh the cap savings we’ve generated with the suggested moves, against the Effective Salary Cap Space above of $10.22M. That creates spendable money for free agents of:
• Without a Lamar Extension: $17.78M
• With a Lamar Extension: $27.78M to $29.78M
What To Do With The Money?
If you subscribe to the approach that I’ve taken thus far, $17.78M in spendable money isn’t bad, but it can quickly be eaten up, as you’ll see. Maybe it swells to $29.78M, maybe it doesn’t. That’s up to No. 8 and the Ravens.
Having said that, it’s not time to turn our attention towards available players who could help the Ravens. I’ve asked RSR analyst Dev Panchwagh to come up with a few players who fill needs and who possess the skill sets to marry up nicely with the Ravens, schematically speaking. So, now that we’ve got that Platinum American Express Cap Card out with some available credit, let’s put it to use.
DT Quinton Jefferson, 6’4”, 291, 3/31/1993 (28), 2016 5th-Round Pick (147) by Seattle
For the Raiders in 2021 Jefferson had 47 tackles, 2 FF and 4 ½ sacks. The former Maryland Terrapin is more of an interior pass rusher than he is a run-stuffer who combines a nice array of swim moves and deception to trigger uncertainty in opposing blockers. PFF projects his next contract at 2 years, $11.5M, $6 GTD. Projected 2022 Cap Number: $4M
S Marcus Maye, 6′ 0″, 207, 3/9/1993 (28), 2017 2nd-Round Pick (37) by the Jets
According to PFF, only Tennessee Titans star Kevin Byard has graded out better at free safety since Maye’s 2018 arrival in New York. In his breakout 2020 season, Maye had two interceptions, two forced fumbles and 11 passes defended for the Jets. And before tearing his Achilles tendon in November, he was also seeing more snaps as an in-the-box safety. With Maye’s injury and drunken-driving arrest last year, however, his next contract could be a short one. PFF projects that contract at 1-year, $6M, $4.5M GTD. The Ravens could structure the contract as a 2 or 3 year deal to lessen the $6M 2022 hit. They could also structure it with a $4.5M base with easily attainable NLTBE incentives since he didn’t play much last season. That wouldn’t count against the 2022 cap if earned. Projected 2022 Cap Number: $4.5M
T Morgan Moses, 6′ 6″, 318, 3/3/1991 (31), 2014 3rd-Round Pick (66) by Washington
The former Virginia Cavalier has been a steady and durable presence at right tackle since he became a full-time starter in 2015. PFF projects a 3 year, $22.5M deal with $14.5M GTD. Projected 2022 Cap Number: $5M
EDGE Derek Barnett, 6′ 3″, 259, 6/25/1996 (25), 2017 1st-Round Pick (14) by Philadelphia
The Ravens were linked to Barnett prior to the 2017 NFL Draft so there may still be some interest. At the NFL level, the former Tennessee Vol has been a bit of an underachiever. His tackle totals climbed to a career-high 46 in 2021 but his sack total plummeted to a career-low of two. PFF projects what I think is a somewhat bloated contract of 3 years, $37.5M, with $25M GTD. But this is free agency. Projected 2022 Cap Number: $7M.
So these four players would help the Ravens address the position of safety, DT, RT and Edge with modestly priced free agents, however, the 2022 cap impact is $20.5M which is over the budgeted number of $17.78M. Now it’s still possible that the Ravens could make all of these deals work with some slight trimming, perhaps an option year in one of the deals and perhaps, by parting ways with a player like James should they sign Moses. It’s also possible that they could squeeze another $3M out of an extension for Peters. The point being, if the team likes these four players, they can get the deals done and still protect the integrity of their cap.
None of these players is a marquee signing. But they all would make the team better and all would address needs while giving them more flexibility during the 2022 NFL Draft.
Parting Thoughts
Currently the Ravens have 10 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. That’s a lot of draft capital and if EDC uses it the way he has during the past two drafts, he’ll be stockpiling some quality depth. But you have to wonder if the team believes all 10 picks can actually make the team. Last year, two fifth-round picks (CB Shaun Wade, FB Ben Mason) did NOT! And while it’s the Ravens modus operandi to fall back and collect more picks if players tumble down the board, might they instead move up to grab players that they really covet if they find the right trading partners?
The Ravens have always done a nice job of anticipating potential cap casualties that are a schematic match, thanks in large part to their pro player personnel group led by George Kokinis. I don’t think this offseason will be any different. The Ravens treasure their draft picks and the added bonus of signing cap casualties lies in the fact that they don’t factor into the comp pick equation. Ozzie and now EDC have long held firm to the belief that an offseason can’t be judged until the next season starts. They have organizational patience. But they shouldn’t confuse patience with complacency.
All In
It’s often said that the NFL is a copycat league and the team usually being emulated is the most recent champ. Looking back to Super Bowl 55, it was quite clear that the Tampa Bay Bucs went all-in. This past season, the Super Bowl 56 Champs, the LA Rams did the same. The Denver Broncos have taken not and now appear to be stealing a page from the book of the most recent two teams that have hoisted the Lombardi, as they sold the farm to acquire Russell Wilson.
Might the Ravens go all-in, in 2022?
Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti once visited us annually as a guest on the Ravens Rap at The Original Greene Turtle in Ocean City, Maryland. During one of his visits we got into a discussion about the salary cap. Among the things discussed was his desire to manage the cap in a way that would regularly allow the Ravens to remain competitive. Now that some time has passed, I wonder if there’s a difference between “competitive” and “all-in”.
As a fan of the team, if EDC made the announcement that the Ravens would go all-in to win Super Bowl 57 at the expense of the next couple of seasons in order to win a championship, would you support the strategy? Put another way, if you knew that 2023 and 2024 would be lean years given cap space constraints, would you endorse a win-at-all-costs strategy in 2022?
If I’m being Eric DeCosta, I’m all-in in 2022.
It’s time, don’t you think?
Brian McFarland and Dev Panchwagh contributed to this article
