“Believe nothing you hear, and only half that you see.”
That sound piece of advice comes courtesy of late Baltimore resident Edgar Allan Poe. When Poe wrote those words in 1845, he probably wasn’t anticipating that they’d be used in 2022 by a snarky football writer talking about the NFL Draft.
And yet, here we are.
Reminder: This week in the NFL is the peak of Lying Season.
Believe nothing til it happens.But by all means argue over it first.
— John Tayman (@BangRadioHour) April 25, 2022
Welcome to Lying Season.
In principle, honesty and transparency are the best policies, but there are realms of life where deception is the more practical solution. Whether it’s a business negotiation, a political strategy, or an interrogation session from your in-laws, the whole truth can sometimes be your enemy. The world of football is no exception.
Over these final few days before the NFL Draft, you’re going to see one of the ways GMs truly make their money: deception. Make no mistake, it may be the offseason, but these teams are already at war, your Ravens included. And as Sun Tzu tells us, “All warfare is based on deception.”
Anonymous coaches and “sources close to the team” will chum the water with rumors, and we as the fans will be forced to tread the frothing tides as the sharks circle with wild speculation. Even in cases that seem cut and dry, there are ways that front offices can tell half-truths and create shades of doubt. For your consideration, I present: The Jacksonville Jaguars.
According to PFN, #Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke wants to draft DE Travon Walker, but team owner Shad Khan wants DE Aidan Hutchinson instead.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) April 25, 2022
Shad Khan: We'll have to really firm up the draft board Wednesday. https://t.co/Fqx4hqMxSB
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) April 25, 2022
Forgive the coarse language, but that’s balderdash. Theoretically, yes, there could be in-fighting between ownership and the GM about the better overall selection at #1. But this close to the Draft? And to float it out to the media that your Big Board isn’t solidified on the Monday of Draft Week?
I don’t buy it for a second. I firmly believe that Hutchinson is going to be the pick, and the Jaguars are planting seeds of doubt to make the job that much harder for the teams behind them. They could even be holding out hope that some team panics and offers a huge haul at #1 (which I doubt seriously). Still, the rumor mill seems to be working, at least in Vegas.
New odds to be the No. 1 overall pick (via @DKSportsbook)… pic.twitter.com/Zj7PF4cMrh
— Anthony Treash (@PFF_Anthony) April 25, 2022
Happy Monday! As expected, Travon Walker is now the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 #NFLDraft at PointsBet, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars & BetMGM https://t.co/9CjLi3Kfi5
— Jaime Eisner (@JaimeEisner) April 25, 2022
Of course, I can be as confident as I want that Walker isn’t the first overall pick, but it doesn’t matter; these rumors muddy the waters, and that’s the objective. In these final few days before the Draft, try this exercise with me: examine every Draft rumor you read and, assuming it was a lie, ask yourself who stands to gain from it. Let’s try it, shall we?
Chiefs not optimistic they'll have a first-round grade on any players available at 29 and 30. https://t.co/zLXnOAIpSY
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) April 24, 2022
Hogwash. The Chiefs may have some players listed in a different tier, but they’re known to find players that will grade higher with later picks. The article even mentions Creed Humphrey and Nick Bolton, the two players that immediately came to my mind when I read this. If it’s a lie, it could be to catch teams by surprise if they have an interest in trading up to snag a wide receiver.
The #Panthers are not expected to trade for #Browns QB Baker Mayfield prior to the first round of the NFL Draft, sources say, if they do it at all. Thursday has to play out first, before any other options are considered. Carolina picks No. 6.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 25, 2022
I’m willing to give this one slightly more credence, but I still think this is a power play by the Panthers. A dwindling market for Baker Mayfield could force the Browns to lower the asking price and take what they can get before the Draft begins. A bird in the hand, and all that jazz.
It seems like Pickens did not interview well pic.twitter.com/wbPpAw8IxV
— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) April 25, 2022
This one might be the most suspect of the bunch. I’m not discounting that there are legitimate concerns with Pickens’ composure, but look at how stacked this wide receiver class is. If you’re a team with a need at wide receiver but you don’t want to spend a first-round price, why not be the boy who cried “character concerns” and see if you can drive Pickens’ stock down to a second-round pick?
So where do the Ravens come in?
The #Ravens pick at No. 14, and while they could go in several directions, the health of Ronnie Stanley could allow them to simply take the best player. https://t.co/zO5Nko4Ans
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 25, 2022
Let me start by saying that I really, really hope this isn’t a lie. Even if it is in line with the previous reports from the offseason, you have to admit that the timing is awfully suspicious. My tinfoil hat conspiracy theory is that the Ravens are either A) hoping that one of the premier tackles in Neal, Ekwonu or Cross will fall into their laps using the façade of not needing one, or B) that they reduce the risk of a team leapfrogging them in the third round to grab one of the mid-tier tackles like Daniel Faalele or Nicholas Petit-Frere.
Again, for my own part, this is all speculation. Until Thursday, all any of us can do is speculate. I’m just going to throw one more nugget out there for you to consider: in 2017, a little birdie (Eric DeCosta) made some remarks in a press conference about how attractive the market could be for receivers like Corey Davis (drafted #5 by Tennessee) and John Ross (drafted #9 by Cincinnati). Who did the Ravens get at #16?
All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey.
Trust no one, Flock, not even our own. Happy Draft Week!!
