The Baltimore Ravens have their toughest test yet, with a battle against the Buffalo Bills. This is advertised as a shootout between two MVP candidates, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The safest prediction for this game is that there will be a lot of yards gained by both offenses. It seems like a given. It’s a day where the Ravens need another great performance out of Jackson, but what if the defense holds the key to a Baltimore victory?
The Ravens’ defense gave up 380 yards against the New York Jets in Week 1. Then they got gashed by the Miami Dolphins giving up 547 yards in Week 3. Last week, the Patriots put up 26 points and had 447 total yards against the Ravens. There’s no evidence that the Baltimore defense can completely shut down the prolific offense of the Bills. Allen, Stefon Diggs, and company are going to make some plays.
So how do the Ravens win this game with their defense? They do it by being opportunistic.,
The Ravens’ defense has done one thing consistently well through three games and that’s taking away the football. The Ravens are coming off of a four-takeaway performance against the Patriots. The epic collapse against Miami mutes the fact that they picked off Tua Tagovailoa twice. They got a pick and a fumble recovery against the Jets. That’s eight times the defense has taken the football away from their opponent in just three games. It’s an impressive stat you can almost forget about.
Marcus Williams has already paid off as the big free agent signing of the offseason with three interceptions. Marcus Peters, Josh Bynes, and Marlon Humphrey all have one interception to their name. Patrick Queen nearly had a pick-6 last Sunday but couldn’t quite bring it in.
The Bills have fumbled six times this season, recovering three and losing the other three. Allen has only two interceptions, both of which came in a dominant victory over the Rams in the season opener. Generally, the Bills are protecting the football well. They have made some mistakes though, and the Ravens will have to capitalize on every chance they get.
It’s worth noting that it’s expected to be a rainy day in Baltimore. A wet football could create some exciting chances for the defense. In a game where every bounce of the football could be crucial, potentially poor weather could have a big impact. Fumbles have been at the very least an issue Buffalo has struggled with.
The Bills’ offense is prolific. They have put up over 400 yards of offense in every game this season. But, prolific doesn’t mean perfect. Allen had 63 passing attempts against the Dolphins, but the Bills only had two touchdowns in the game, and ended up with 19 points after a field goal and a safety. There is very little balance in the Buffalo attack. Much like everything falls on Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, the Bills lean heavily on Allen generating production.
Mike Macdonald comes into this game knowing exactly what to expect from the Bills. There are going to be a lot of passing attempts and Allen will help out the run game from the quarterback position. The Ravens can call their defense accordingly. Expect a lot of sub packages. The defensive backs must come prepared. Interceptions can change the game and the volume of passing plays will give them plenty of opportunity.
The Ravens’ defense should look better later in the year than they do early in the season. Getting Tyus Bowser and David Ojabo back from injury is going to help later on. It’s also important to remember that Macdonald is new. Being the defensive coordinator of the Ravens is different than being the defensive coordinator of the Michigan Wolverines. Macdonald will grow into the role of defensive coordinator and his players will feel more comfortable as the season progresses. For now, being ballhawks and creating turnovers will help the Ravens get by. The defense doesn’t need to be perfect if it makes big plays in each game.
It may be bad news for the Bills to hear that the Ravens cornerbacks have started to get back to their All-Pro form. Peters recovered a fumble and had an interception against the Patriots. Humphrey has been one of the most effective shutdown cornerbacks in the game.
The lowest passer rating allowed in single coverage this season 🔒 pic.twitter.com/ROvS6CfQFL
— PFF (@PFF) September 28, 2022
With Peters and Humphrey at full strength, the Ravens are a much more dangerous team. It also doesn’t hurt that Brandon Stephens is playing very solid in coverage. Things are coming together at the cornerback position.
Kyle Hamilton had his first big moment when he forced a late-game fumble and created a turnover against the Patriots. Hamilton only allowed one catch for 10 yards in Foxboro. The rookie safety just had his strongest performance. If he can be another turnover creator in the back end of the defense, the Ravens will undoubtedly have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NFL.
Kyle Hamilton vs Patriots:
• 14 coverage snaps
• 1 reception allowed
• 10 yards allowed
• Game-winning forced fumble
• PFF’s highest graded Ravens defenderThe rookie safety has been on FIRE as of lately 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1KvtynqvzB
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 26, 2022
That’s the big key. The Ravens need to force multiple turnovers against the Bills. The defense has shown no reason to expect that they completely fluster the Buffalo offense. What the unit can do is make the two or three big plays that change the game. Forcing turnovers and giving Jackson extra chances with the football is the best path towards a Ravens Week 4 win.
The Ravens took a step towards redeeming themselves for their meltdown against the Miami Dolphins. The fourth-quarter turnover fest against New England was the exact answer the fanbase needed to see out of the Baltimore defense. Baltimore needs to see more turnovers against the Bills.
The Ravens need to continue to create their own luck, by taking the ball away.
