Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 11 Games
How good was Lamar Jackson in the passing game last Thursday against the Bengals?
His actual passing stats were 16 of 26 (61.5%) for 264 yards (10.2 yards-per) with 2 TDs and zero INTs, for a passer rating of 121.3. That’s excellent, of course. But! Three of those attempts were throwaways: no receiver targeted, Lamar was just throwing it out of bounds due to pressure (Q1 2:58, Q2 13:26, Q2 1:30). On his passes that were actually intended for receivers, Lamar completed 69.6% for a rating of 136.9. It gets better. Lamar’s passes drew three Defensive Pass Interference penalties for 48 yards. Those don’t show up at all in these stats. You can add in three more attempts and completions.
It gets better. Zay Flowers‘ 68-yard catch-&-run was called back for a phantom holding call on Odell Beckham. The impact of the penalty on the stats is confusing. Flowers does get a catch on the play; for 4 yards, which was considered the spot of Beckham’s so-called foul. Then the 10yd penalty was marked off from the spot of the 4-yard gain. The call by the ref was ridiculous; so let’s add the additional 64 yards and the TD to Lamar’s stats.
You ready? On throws intended for receivers plus the drawn DPIs plus the stolen yardage from the bad hold call, Lamar went 19 of 26 (73%) for 376 yards (14.5 yds-per) with 3 TDs and no INTs. That would be good for a pass rating of 153.5. Not bad! Would qualify as the 4th-best passer rating day of Lamar’s career, after his two perfect days in 2019 (@ Miami and @ Cincy) and the game vs Detroit last month. He’s really dealing.
Statistics are weird and imperfect. No receiver gets a “target” for the obvious throwaways (nor for spikes), so receiving stats always look better than passing stats. And Nelson Agholor scores a TD on a pass where he wasn’t targeted!
NELLY FLIPPED INTO THE ENDZONE 😂😂😂😂😂
Tune in on Prime! pic.twitter.com/lg2r9joscE
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 17, 2023
The official game stats give Agholor a “target” on this play. (A later target to Agholor was ruled “no play” due to Pass Interference.) But we can look at it and clearly see this pass was intended for Isaiah Likely. It doinked off Cincy linebacker Germaine Pratt and straight into Agholor’s hands. Is that why the play was drawn up with two crossers, one right after the other? Probably not.
Drop the Hip Drop
“Hip Drop Tackles” have become a high-visibility talking point since Mark Andrews was injured in Thursday’s game:
On the broadcast, Al Michaels references the hip drop tackle when Andrews is injured.
At NFL league meetings, Health and Safety leaders said this is currently being studied. Analysis of 2022 season showed 25x injury rate with this type of tackle vs others. https://t.co/Mh3hrtnqhY— Stephania Bell (@Stephania_ESPN) November 17, 2023
Here’s one from the Florida State game just two days later:
Another example of a bad hip drop tackle. Jordan Travis will bounce back 🙏🏽 pic.twitter.com/t16G3ejgcW
— Justin (@CoachJD08) November 19, 2023
Patrick Mahomes got hurt on a play like this vs the Jaguars in last year’s playoffs:
Textbook high ankle sprain mechanism (hip drop tackle?) for Patrick Mahomes, possible MCL involvement at the knee too. No doubt they will do everything to keep him in but effectiveness pivoting/pushing off that foot will be the question. pic.twitter.com/sz5Fj4zQ30
— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) January 21, 2023
So you might wonder, what is a Hip Drop Tackle? Matt Wise shared a helpful explainer video that the Australian National Rugby League released about the tackle. They banned “hip drop tackles” due to injury risk. Here’s their guidance:
Mark Andrews' season ending injury came on a "hip-drop" tackle.
The @NRL (🇦🇺 Rugby) has made these tackles illegal due to "unacceptable risk of injury".
A 2022 #NFL study "showed 25x injury rate with this type of tackle vs others". –@Stephania_ESPN https://t.co/5uOtySkZhW
— Matt Wise (@TheMattWise) November 17, 2023
The most important aspect, the one that causes injury, is dropping onto the runner’s legs from behind. From about the 2-min mark in that video they show tackles that look like “hip drop tackles,” but would not be violations and would not be banned. The difference was the tackler kept his weight from falling on the runner’s legs. Here’s an example like that from the NFL – the person who tweeted this thinks it’s a hip-drop tackle, because the defender wraps around the runner’s weight and drops to drag the runner down, but watch where the defender lands his weight:
No injury here, but this is the hip drop tackle that needs to be eliminated asap pic.twitter.com/lISc1UrffL
— jackson valliant (@Dane83Jackson) November 21, 2023
The defender lands on the ground, NOT on the runner’s legs. So this tackle would not be a violation. It’s easy enough to see: I encourage you to watch the examples, both of what would and would not be impacted by a rule change. And don’t let get-off-my-lawn types tell you that a rule like this would be too difficult to enforce. Or that it would take the “manliness” out of the game! The game is still plenty “manly” without chop blocks and crack-back blocks. This is no different: unnecessary targeting of player’s knees & ankles.
Rule-change proposals gain traction when star players get hurt (sadly). Andrews is now the poster boy. Peter King wrote on Monday that he “expects the NFL to move aggressively to erase the hip-drop tackle this off-season.” King is probably more plugged-in to what the NFL old guard and traditionalists think than anyone else in the media, so his opinion on what “official” moves might be coming down the pike is noteworthy. I’m all for it. (And just maybe Mark Andrews might recover more quickly than expected…)
When is an Incomplete Pass a Promising Sign?
Last week we said that Lamar has to start making better throws on the deep sideline shots when his receiver has a step on the defender. That’s been the “missing piece” in an otherwise-very-good Ravens offense. So this week Rashod Bateman gets a step on the defender deep down the sideline, Lamar throws it, and it’s incomplete. Same ol’, same ol’…right?
But no! Look at the placement on this ball:
Cam Taylor-Britt 🔒🔒🔒 pic.twitter.com/4ho3yFVPxO
— Alex 👋 (@Dubs408) November 17, 2023
The DB recovered to make an excellent tip-away at the last second. But this ball was right in the breadbasket. By the way, Bateman has been cooking against single coverage. See the graph (data through ten games, not all 11):
How often WRs face single coverage and how well they separate on those plays.
Note: separation does not refer to number of yards of separation on average, but is based on a -2 to 2 scale (that's how you can have "negative separation") pic.twitter.com/JgG9RPNT3t
— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) November 15, 2023
Here’s Matt Waldman breaking down a Bateman play from Week 10’s Cleveland game:
Good pacing by Rashod Bateman and a textbook attack of the ball #Ravensflock pic.twitter.com/KOourek5UV
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 12, 2023
Bateman is an outside receiver (an X receiver), and Lamar likes to work between the numbers (esp to Andrews), so it’s not a great match for Bateman in terms of the play-preferences of his quarterback. But the ability is there, the chemistry has been there in the past (2021 & 22), and now the Pro Bowl Tight End is not. Many of us are primed for a Rashod Bateman explosion. Cross your fingers.
Why make such a big deal over a WR with just 20 catches for 200 yards on the year?
Sigh. It is true that the production has not been there this season. But for this Ravens offense to be the best version of itself – the version that can advance to the Conference Championship Game – they need all their weapons firing. That includes Bateman playing up to the potential he’s flashed in previous seasons: the first-down machine with serious Lamar chemistry he showed in 2021, the big-play weapon he showed last year.
Dude turns 24 the week after Thanksgiving, so we’re not talking about an old, washed-up player.
The 2012 Ravens offense turned into the postseason juggernaut when they shifted Anquan Boldin to the slot (and put Bryant McKinnie at Left Tackle), letting Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones play outside. It’s easy to imagine something similar with Odell Beckham in the slot (and Ronnie Stanley returning at Left Tackle), letting Bateman and Zay Flowers play outside. The Ravens offense won’t be as Tight End -centric the rest of the season without Andrews (it can’t be), so the Wide Receivers will have to be even more prominent.
Rushing Attack
I know I refer to DVOA and the former Football Outsiders a little too much. But they are kind of the granddaddy of the current Golden Age of football analytics; and they always tried to balance some historical perspective. Here’s Aaron Schatz on the current Ravens rushing attack:
Actually, yes. The Ravens currently have the No. 3 highest run offense DVOA ever through 11 games, trailing only the 1998 Broncos and 1999 Redskins. Immediately behind them are the 2002 Chiefs, 1995 Cowboys, 2005 Chargers, and 2000 Rams. https://t.co/DNKTtdRFRr
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) November 20, 2023
When he says “highest DVOA ever” he means since 1981, which is how far back their research goes. Here’s the list from that tweet in table form:
I think it’s easy to miss what’s being said here. That looks like just another list of teams and years; but these comps are ridiculous. I’m going to take them out of order to lead with the Hall Of Famers:
- The 1998 Broncos! Terrell Davis 2000 yards and NFL MVP; second consecutive Super Bowls.
- 1995 Cowboys! Emmitt Smith 1775 yards and 25 rushing TDs; third Super Bowl win in four years.
- 2000 Rams: Marshall Faulk 1350 yards and 18 TDs, in the year between their two Super Bowl appearances.
- 2005 Chargers: LaDainian Tomlinson 1460 yards and 18 TDs, plus Michael Turner, the season before they led in scoring and grabbed the #1 seed.
The non-HOFers are impressive too:
- 2002 Chiefs: Priest Holmes almost 2300 yards from scrimmage, 21 rush TDs, and Offensive Player of the Year. They would lead the league in scoring the following season.
- 1999 Redskins: Stephen Davis rushed for 1400 yds and 17 TDs.
- 2014 Seahawks: Beast Mode Lynch 1300 yards and Russell Wilson rushing for another 850, coming off a SB win and they returned to the game this season (but not win).
The rest of this list has some special players: another Tomlinson season (arguably better); a KC season with a 3-headed monster of Holmes & Larry Johnson & Derrick Blaylock; a Niners season where they platooned Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow. The 2010 Patriots look out of place. That was a Tom Brady MVP season. He was spreading the ball around to Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez. I assume that defenses were too busy to load up against the run and Brady would check into the perfect play.
These are UNBELIEVABLE rushing offenses. Names you know. By the way, you might wonder why the 2019 Ravens aren’t on this list of top rushing offenses by DVOA? I’m not sure; but remember this is just through eleven games. The 2019 Ravens finished with very strong rushing performances in their final five games, which probably raised their end-of-season rating:
So: the (former) Football Outsiders stats are saying that this year’s Ravens rushing attack is efficient on a par with those other, famous rushing offenses! That’s amazing.
I’m going to deflate that bubble very slightly. First, this is only about ⅔ of a season of results. The final results aren’t in yet. Secondly: those other rushing offenses – the ones with Terrell Davis & Emmitt Smith & Marshall Faulk & LaDainian Tomlinson & Marshawn Lynch – they were built around workhorse Running Backs who were the focal point of the team’s attack. When the other team is building their defensive game plan around stopping you, and you can still run efficiently, that’s something. These Ravens are doing it differently. They are spreading teams out with receiving threats, and running into the gaps. They also have Lamar and his “gravity” acting on defenses (similar to the 2014 Seahawks with Russ). And finally, Keaton Mitchell is probably distorting these statistics a bit, picking up a 40- or 60-yard rush every game. His stats will likely come back to earth a bit.
But it’s still very impressive from a play-calling and game-planning perspective. Todd Monken & co are doing a very nice job scheming up runs – evidently a historic job. And the Ravens have been executing: 3rd in yards-per-rush, 5th in rushing Success Rate, very few runs for loss, and no fumbles, versus a difficult schedule of rush defenses. The “no fumbles” bit probably comes as a surprise – we can remember a few miscues in the backfield, particularly between Lamar and Justice Hill. But they changed how DVOA is calculated, to move bad handoffs and aborted snaps out of the rushing category into a new category of “aborts.” Another small boost for this year’s Ravens squad.
This has all been under the radar. Time for us to take notice of it.
On the Division Opponents
The Brownies are attempting to win big on the backs of a historic defense and a strong running game, despite bad QB play. Fans & analysts in other cities might scoff, but here in Baltimore the 2000 Ravens are still vivid to us. I take them seriously. That defense is awfully good. If they win their next two, including while the Ravens are on a bye next week, they’ll have first place in the division due to tiebreakers.
Room for optimism for Ravens fans? Cleveland has four road games left, and the Browns haven’t been quite the same defense on the road as at home. They gave up 38 points @ Indy, 24 @ Seattle and 31 in Baltimore. Their next two games are in Denver (the Broncos are for real now??) and @ Rams. They also have @ Texans to deal with, and they close the season with their rivalry game in Cincinnati.
The Bengals have been left for dead since falling to 0-3 in the division with five conference losses. That’s fine by me: Bengals fans have inherited the Most Annoying Fanbase mantle (from Buffalo) since they made the Super Bowl two years ago. But! I thought Jake Browning looked like he had some poise & potential, when he came into the game Thursday night. They have some great opportunities to play spoiler down the stretch: both Steelers games, @ Jags, @ Chiefs (yeah right) and hosting the Brownies in the season finale. I’ll be pulling for them in some of those games.
The Steelers will get a dead cat bounce from firing their OC – and they may not have needed one. Aaron Schatz points out that the Steelers have played the toughest slate of opposing defenses of any team this year:
If the season ended today, that would be the third-toughest offensive strength of schedule [since 1981]. Half of Pittsburgh’s games have come against top-seven defenses … Things get easier for the Steelers, with an average offensive strength of schedule for the remainder of the year. It’s very likely that the offense will look better no matter what and people will attribute it to the offensive coordinator change even if Kenny Pickett isn’t really playing any better and the coordinator change hasn’t really changed things.
It’s very hard when just watching games to adjust for the strength of the opponent. That’s the point of developing an algorithm like DVOA: to show you things you wouldn’t have noticed otherwise.
I don’t love the idea that the Steelers offense has “actually” been better than it has looked. There are not a lot of likely-losses on the Steelers remaining schedule. Their hardest remaining games look like the road games: two divisional ones, in Cincinnati this weekend and the finale in Baltimore, plus they’re in Indy the week before Christmas and in Seattle (always a tough venue) on New Year’s Eve. How many losses do you see there? Hopefully two, maybe three?
It’s not good for our nerves, but I see the division coming down to the wire again.
Stats
Ten players targeted! Six players with multiple targets. This leads into a “committee” remark: see the next section.
Odell’s first great game as a Ravens; his first game with even 60 yards.
Bateman’s first touchdown on the year. I hope I’ve made the case above that Bateman’s actual play these past several weeks has been better than his statistical production. And also that his emergence would be a very important next step for the Ravens offense.
In this game, on passes to WRs, Lamar went 9 of 14 for 206 yards and 2 TDs, for a passer rating of 147.3. That’s actual: no adjustment for Pass Interference or the phantom hold on Odell. You can add another 105 yards and another TD if you want to be cute: an absurd 19 yards-per-attempt on 16 passes. Not your father’s Ravens (or Greg Roman’s either): this team has an actual NFL-caliber WR corps.
Season Stats
Here are the full-season stats to date:
Zay Flowers is 30th in the league in receiving yards. Mark Andrews is 36th; 4th among TEs, but of course his rank will fall from here on out. He’s 14th in Success Rate (5th among TEs). Isaiah Likely doesn’t have enough targets & catches to qualify. Nelson Agholor is up to 15th in the NFL in yards-per-target.
This is receiving-by-committee. The Ravens pass offense as a whole is 7th in the league in passer rating; 4th in yards-per-attempt and the more exotic variations of yards-per that PFR tracks (Adjusted Yards Per, Net Yards Per, Adjusted Net Yards Per). But no one receiver is among the leaders. They’re doing it by spreading the ball around, not by funneling the passing attack thru top players. Their #1 pass-catching weapon on the year (Flowers or Andrews) is probably not as good as the #1 weapon on other top teams. But their #3, #4 and #5 weapons are probably better than most everybody else’s. A diverse attack.
To succeed with a receiving-by-committee approach, your QB has to be playing very well. Trigger man is 6th in passer rating and completion pctg; 9th in Success Rate. He’s 7th in passing DVOA (min 10 attempts), just above Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.
The Ravens offense is 7th in points-per-drive, 6th in scoring percentage, and 4th in points-per-game. They are 4th in Red Zone pctg; 5th in 3rd-down pctg. DVOA rates them the #4 offense.
Bonus
If you have The Athletic, read Jeff Zrebiec’s touching profile of Ravens OL coach Joe D’Alessandris. Well-traveled coach, family tragedy, resilience: fantastic stuff. And a timely reminder to be thankful.
Next Up
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Then: after a relaxing weekend on the mini-bye, the Ravens travel to beautiful San Diego to play Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Wait, you say that’s not right? The Chargers aren’t in San Diego anymore? Nonsense! No one would move from San Diego. That’s just stupid.
Well, wherever the Chargers play their “home” games, the Ravens will meet them there.
And probably kill them. Those Chargers have a good offense, but they were already a bad defense (4th-worst in DVOA, 5th-worst in points-allowed-per-drive) and they just lost bookend pass rusher Joey Bosa. Khalil Mack can still ruin your day (11 sacks already!), but you need a whole squad to play defense. And John Harbaugh teams don’t usually lose when they have an extra-days-rest advantage.
I suppose that’s an over-confident and presumptive tone to take in an “analytics” column. But this Ravens team is really good and really focused. I’m feeling it, man!
