OTL: A Monday Night Party

Somebody needed to tell the Ravens faithful that 0-2 was just a part of the journey and that a four-game winning streak was coming. As the Ravens prepare for their third night game of the season, their entire outlook is lifted above the gloom of the two-game skid that started everything. It’s game day, Baltimore.

The Ravens have to keep their foot on the gas pedal. The Cincinnati Bengals picked up a win against the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers advanced their record to 5-2 against the New York Jets (in what felt like a pointless game, filled with botched opportunities by New York). The Ravens must continue stacking wins. A win in Tampa Bay would be a statement that the Ravens are a serious team with reachable championship expectations.

Lamar Jackson could thrive against the blitz-heavy Tampa Bay defense

Jackson has the 4th most passing yards (608) against the blitz this season. He'll be facing a Bucs defense that ranks 3rd in blitz rate, so Jackson should have opportunities to make plays through the air. pic.twitter.com/ynd0Xq15m8

— PFF BAL Ravens (@PFF_Ravens) October 18, 2024

Pro Football Focus thinks the Buccaneers should be careful with how they want to attack the Ravens. According to the numbers, Tampa Bay likes to blitz and Lamar Jackson thrives against the blitz. Considering the offensive line concerns of the two-game slump and the success the Chiefs had in the AFC Championship with unrelenting blitzes, this speaks to the progress of the Ravens’ offense.

A lot of it probably has to do with the weapons that Jackson has to play with. Zay Flowers is having a strong start to the season. The Ravens have three quality targets at the tight end position and Rashod Bateman has proven to be a viable threat. If you come at Jackson as a principle strategy, he has outlets for the football that are winning the battles. The second Tampa Bay worries about all those weapons, the Ravens run game will do its damage.

Offensive and defensive explosive play rates:

The Ravens (2nd in explosive pass %) get to play the Bucs (26th in explosive pass % allowed) and the Bucs (3rd in explosive pass %) get to play the Ravens (32nd in explosive pass % allowed) next Monday night! 💥 pic.twitter.com/poDbZT3Q8Z

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) October 15, 2024

Fantasy Pros’ Sam Hoppen’s tweet sums up the main expectations of this game. The takeaway is that if you’re looking for fireworks, the numbers suggest this is the game for you. If you take away the first two games, the Ravens numbers look a lot better, plus the Cowboys were aided by a fluky onside kick and were in desperate passing mode early in Week 3. It’s not an excuse, but it is worth noting that the defense is on a more positive trajectory.

Ravens DC Zach Orr said he’s seen Baker Mayfield have more freedom at the line with the Bucs. Orr said it’s up to the Ravens defense to not give Mayfield too many answers before the snap. pic.twitter.com/oO4GuYs32l

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) October 18, 2024

Zachary Orr knows what Baker Mayfield brings to the table and his comments here are both frank and insightful. This is a great “prove it” kind of game for him and his unit. The Ravens can change the narrative about their team completely with a dominant defensive performance. Do they have it in them?

Bucs longest active drought without a win against a franchise is the Ravens. Last win was Week 2 2002 in Baltimore. 25-0 shutout. The Bucs were wearing…….. https://t.co/PZrguxOodW pic.twitter.com/zsYh3bZk9E

— Liam Mitchell (Bucs Vault) (@BucsArchive1976) October 17, 2024

Buccaneers YouTuber Liam Mitchell brings up an interesting factoid. It’s been a while since the Ravens lost to the Bucs. Now that I’m thinking about, it there have been a lot of good memories for the Ravens against the Buccaneers. The last trip the Ravens made to Tampa Bay was in 2022 and it was a compelling win against Tom Brady’s Bucs. Do you have a favorite Tampa Bay-Ravens memory? I’m kind of partial to the four touchdown first quarter Joe Flacco had in 2014 (Watch Here).

CBS Sports staff reports that the Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on the road. Their article expressed why both teams can cover. This is what they said about the Ravens.

The Ravens are ranked first in total offense (453.7) and rushing offense (205.3), while ranking eighth in pass offense (248.3). In addition, they are fourth in the NFL in scoring offense (29.5).

Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the engine for this unit. Jackson has pinpoint accuracy and is among the best running quarterbacks in the league. The two-time MVP is seventh in passing yards (1,529), tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (10) and is sixth in QBR (69.4). He also has 403 rushing yards. In the backfield, running back Derrick Henry is a force. The Alabama product ranks first in the NFL in carries (119), rushing yards (704) and rushing touchdowns (8).

I think the Ravens viewpoint is a bit simplified. The Ravens defense has been opportunistic, even if it hasn’t been stingy. I think this is a wild card to the game that isn’t being considered on the general soundstages of conversation. It’s hard to argue with this though. Just by the numbers, the Ravens are shockingly good.

Here’s the CBS Sports reasoning for why the Bucs can cover:

Through six games, Tampa Bay is ninth in the league in total offense (367.2), 11th in passing offense (230.2) and tied for second in points per game (29.7). Quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best ball of his career. He is ranked eighth in the NFL in passing yards (1,489), but first in passing touchdowns (15). Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards and two passing touchdowns twice thus far.

Receiver Chris Godwin has been Mayfield’s go-to target. The Penn State product is an electric playmaker who has been a force after the catch. Godwin is first in the NFL in receptions (43) and receiving touchdowns (5) and third in receiving yards (511). In his last game, the 28-year-old had 11 catches for 125 yards and two scores.

The stars really do stand out when you look at this game by the numbers and think analytically. The Ravens have trouble with big-bodied receivers who have huge catch radii. The Buccaneers have two players that fit this description. The Ravens can win this game but the secondary will be tested. That is reason for alarm. Simply put, the Buccaneers do well what the Ravens struggle to stop. The last thing the Ravens can do is take this game for granted.

It’s game day! Let’s see what happens Baltimore.