Defense
Bracket Chase
Ja’Marr Chase absolutely torched the Ravens in Week 5, turning 12 targets into 10 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns.
Let’s break down how:
Motion: 13.8% motion rate, targeted on a season-high 62.5% of routes in motion
Against linebackers: Caught all three of his targets for 85 yards and a touchdown
Vs. single-high coverage: Targeted on 11 of 21 routes for 9 receptions, 184 yards, and two touchdowns
Out of the slot: Caught all three targets for 112 yards and a touchdown
After the catch: 95 yards after the catch, +65 over expected
Joe Burrow has historically struggled with Tee Higgins out, because teams can devote more resources to slowing Chase. That should be the Ravens’ strategy tonight, with consistent bracketing and double-teams to discourage targets and force Burrow to look elsewhere.
It starts with split-safety looks, making sure that there’s help over the top no matter where Chase lines up on the field. That will enable the Ravens cornerbacks to use the sidelines and play more physical coverage against Chase on the outside, disrupting his timing with Burrow. The Bengals may try to hit some back-shoulder throws or hole shots against Cover 2, so Nate Wiggins and Brandon Stephens will need to locate the ball and stay competitive at the catch point.
Cincinnati will adjust by moving Chase into the slot and going into motion to target the middle of the field where the Ravens have been vulnerable. Instead of letting Chase get matched up on a linebacker, Baltimore should lean on their dime personnel with Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton playing in the slot on either side. That will maintain strong matchups against Chase in the slot and avoid giving away the Ravens’ coverage call when he goes into motion.
Keep Them Off Schedule
The Bengals rank in the bottom 10 in EPA/rush (-0.09), rushing yards per play (4.1), and yards before contact per attempt (1.07).
Those numbers have been even worse since Amaris Mims took over at right tackle in Week 4, with 0.6 yards before contact per carry and opponents contacting ballcarriers behind the line of scrimmage on 50% of their designed runs. Their interior run rate ranks third, and their shotgun rate ranks seventh, setting up a predictable, easy-to-defend run game.
Cincinnati has adjusted to their poor rushing efficiency with a league high +2.9% pass rate over expected, including a +16.8 PROE on 3rd-and-short this year, the highest by any team since at least 2018. Burrow throws quick passes under 2.5 seconds on 54.6% of his passes, including a 16 for 21 performance in Week 5 for 173 yards and four touchdowns. Burrow has also excelled targeting the middle of the field where the Ravens have struggled to defend.
The Ravens have consistently disguised man coverage as zone to slow down Burrow’s processing, but that will expose them to a quick passing game that can pick up yards after the catch. The Bengals also use motion at a 59.4% rate with narrow, condensed formations to create traffic off the line of scrimmage and discourage man coverage.
Zach Orr should flip the script tonight with match coverages, showing zone coverage pre-snap with defenders picking up a man-on-man matchup off the snap to take away Burrow’s immediate options. That will also enable him to ramp up his blitz packages, which he has typically avoided this year.
Opposing defenses have been afraid to blitz Burrow this year, sending five or more rushers at a 21.1% clip, the third-lowest of any QB. However, Burrow has excelled against four or fewer rushers with 1,742 yards and 14 touchdowns – both top-three marks. Orr should roll the dice and send more blitzes at Burrow. With Chase doubled and Higgins sidelined, Burrow will have to rely on his other receiving targets, who aren’t nearly as adept at getting open or dominant at the catch point. He may burn Baltimore a few times, but he may also fall victim to mistake with a tighter margin for error.
Turnovers, sacks, or even incompletions forced by blitzes will keep the Bengals behind the sticks and limit their ability to set up short first down conversions through the air.
Offense
Stay Patient with the RunÂ
The Ravens’ run game has been dominant this year, but teams have found success by loading up the line of scrimmage. The Bengals’ use of six-man fronts are an example of that, as they limited Henry to 2.9 yards per carry outside of his overtime 51-yard rush.
One key to tomorrows game, getting the run game going.
Derrick Henry finished the first matchup with 15 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD. That's a 6.1 YPC. Not bad at all.
But a 51 yard rush in OT is carrying a lot of that.
The other 14 carries for 41 yards (2.9 YPC)
— Cole Jackson (@ColeJacksonFB) November 7, 2024
Cincinnati has a set of contradicting run defense statistics. They rank in the top five among NFL defenses in: explosive run rate allowed (9.0%), yards before contact per carry (1.1), rate of contacting rushers behind the line of scrimmage (44.2%), tackle efficiency (89.1%) and yards from missed tackles (345). However, their +8.2 rushing EPA, +164 rush yards over expected, and 46.8% rushing success rate allowed are all among the sixth-worst in the NFL.
The Bengals could slow down Henry at the beginning of the game, but Todd Monken already has the answer to that: using the pass to set up the run. If Cincy loads up around the line of scrimmage to stop Henry, Lamar Jackson will have easier matchups in the passing game and expose the Bengals through the air.
This played out last week against the Broncos, with Henry struggling early and Jackson linking up with Zay Flowers for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns in the first half. Then, when Denver dropped back into split-safety looks with fewer players in the box, Henry handled 14 touches from halftime to the first minute of the fourth quarter, bludgeoning a worn-out, spread-out defense. It was crucial of Monken to go back to the run despite the lack of first-half success to make sure he maintained the Ravens’ multidimensional threat throughout the game.
Jackson’s legs are an even bigger X-factor than normal after minimal scrambling and zero designed rushes in Week 9. Did he tear the Broncos apart from the pocket because he could, because he had to, or because he was saving himself for tonight’s crucial matchup? The Bengals are likely wondering the same thing, which Monken can take advantage of.
Jackson was a full participant on Wednesday with no injury designation, so hopefully his knee is feeling good enough to put in a full dual-threat performance. If so, Monken should still hold his legs in reserve to lull Cincinnati into a false sense of security that Jackson won’t take off and run. Then, in the second half, Monken can unleash Jackson on the ground and empower him to scramble more often when passing to catch the Bengals off-guard. Rather than let Jackson’s need for rest negatively impact the offense, it could actually be used to play mind games with Cincy and set up a huge game.
Identify and Burn Blitzes
The Bengals have one consistent pass-rushing threat: Trey Hendrickson, who has accounted for 31.7% of the team’s pressures and 61.1% of the team’s sacks this season, both the highest such numbers in the NFL. He leads the league with 11 sacks and ranks third with 46 pressures, while no other Bengal has more than two sacks. Their defensive tackles have particularly struggled, with just 28 pressure and 2.5 sacks in total.
As a result, Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo relies on blitzes to generate pressure, with their 25.9% pressure rate on non-blitzes jumping to 47.5% when blitzing. That +21.6% increased pressure rate is the fourth-largest difference in the NFL. Anarumo frequently uses six-man fronts, especially against Baltimore, to fortify against the run and set up his blitzes. The Ravens faced six-man fronts at a 34.2% clip in Week 5, up from the Bengals’ season average of 14.7%, the third-highest in the league. Anarumo blitzes six players at the sixth-highest rate in the league (10.2%), but also drops a defender into coverage off the line of scrimmage 29.7% of the time. That sets up diverse pressure packages that can feature all-out blitzes or simulated pressures with defenders dropping into coverage.
The Ravens need a multi-faceted attack to maintain their success against the blitz. Jackson has torched the blitz this season by identifying the defense’s plan and scheming his protection and routes for maximum effectiveness. Baltimore used spread formations on 23.7% of plays in Week 5, their third-highest rate this season, helping Jackson diagnose the defense and isolate favorable matchups in the passing game.
The Bengals have typically used zone blitzes to force the ball out quickly then tackle, with creepers showing pressure then dropping off the line of scrimmage into underneath coverage. Monken should scheme up screens and quick-hitters with blockers moving downfield to exploit zone blitzes while also giving Jackson some 1-on-1 matchups to target up the sidelines and the seams.
As for protection, Monken has been willing to keep running backs and tight ends into block at a league-leading 37.0% rate, limiting opponents to just 27 quick pressures (second-fewest). Doing so will ensure that Stanley has consistent help against Hendrickson after struggling against him in Week 5.
Hendrickson gave Stanley fits in their first matchup with seven pressures on 20 matchups, the second most pressures Stanley has ever allowed in a single-game individual matchup. Stanley also struggled against Myles Garrett in Week 8, but has been rock-solid otherwise. With little pressure threat elsewhere, the Ravens should give more help to Stanley’s side and avoid Jackson from being hit from behind.
Keeping in extra players to block will also counter the Bengals’ six-man blitzes, though the tight ends and running backs need to be coached to recognize and release against blitzers dropping off the line of scrimmage into coverage. The Bengals use that strategy to keep opposing pass-catchers in protection and maintain a numbers advantage in coverage downfield. However, if players like Justice Hill and Mark Andrews can release into the flats and pick up yards after the catch, the Bengals won’t be able to throw out as many exotic blitz packages that give up space underneath.
Jackson has averaged 3.06 seconds to throw this year, the third-longest in the NFL, using his legs to evade rushers while keeping his eyes downfield. If he can correctly identify when the Bengals are and are not blitzing, he can come up with the answers pre-snap and give himself enough protection to find a target downfield against pressure.
All advanced stats via Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.
