Breaking Down UFA WR: Efficiency
There are a few positions of need that all Ravens fans can agree on: Cornerback, Wide Receiver, and Safety. All three of those could use upgrades this offseason and would have a profound effect on where this team finishes in 2015.
Last week, I wrote a piece breaking down the unrestricted free agent corner class this offseason. I took a similar approach in ranking the UFA wide receiver class.
I used the averages of the receivers who were on the field for 25% of their team’s offensive snaps in all of the calculations. Here are those numbers:
If you see in that list, there are “YARDS” and then there are “YARDS w/ PENALTIES”. Yards with penalties are simply the receiving yards plus the yards gained by pass interference for a given receiver. I thought it was unfair to not give a receiver credit for defensive pass interference and its corresponding yardage. Why should they not get the credit for what can be such a game changing play? Therefore, I treated each player’s pass interferences against as catches and added the yardage to their total yardage.
To come up with each player’s score, I used the following variables:
- Completion % w/ Penalties
- Yards / Reception w/ Penalties
- YAC / Reception
- TD / Target %
- Drops / Target %
- Fumbles / Reception %
- Penalties / Snap %
As with the corners, I compared those against the averages to come up with a score for each player.
Just to give some context around the score, this does not truly say who is the “better” receiver skill wise, but it gives an idea as to which receiver is more efficient when their number is called.
The caveat here is that there’s no way to truly quantify two large parts of a receivers game.
First, you can’t quantify who’s covering them. For instance, Dez Bryant is going against the other team’s #1 corner the majority of the time so in theory it would be harder for him to get a reception whereas Kamar Aiken is going against a team’s nickel corner. However, that could also be offset by the fact that Bryant’s skills outweigh Aiken’s at this point in their careers. There’s no way to account for that with numbers.
And second, you can’t quantify for who’s throwing them the ball. You would think that a receiver being thrown to by Andrew Luck would have an easier time than being thrown to by Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Before I dive into the free agents, here’s my top 10 list of receivers from last season who played in 25% or more of their team’s snaps. This should give you an idea as to what the score really means:
Source: Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Outsiders
We all know that Martavis Bryant and Cole Beasley aren’t “better” than Dez Bryant, but judging by their numbers last season, they were more efficient in their opportunities. Although Martavis Bryant had more drops per target than anyone else in the top 10, this was offset by his touchdowns per target and his yards per reception. When you take all of those into account, he had the most efficient season.
When comparing the UFA’s, I broke them down into two categories: Over 15 targets and Under 15 targets. I thought this would give a better indication as to which scores may be skewed a bit because of a much lower number of targets.
Source: Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Outsiders, and Spotrac
In these two lists, I only see a handful of players that the Ravens could target. Unfortunately, I don’t see the Ravens getting their #1 wideout with this free agent class. It’s very top heavy and I don’t think the Ravens would be able to afford the high end talent.
The few that stand out and could be in the Ravens’ price range are Kenny Britt and Michael Crabtree. Neither had eye-popping numbers last season and Crabtree had a ton of drops, but the upside potential here could make them a fit at the right price. They won’t overpay for either of these guys, but it’s possible that their stock drops far enough for the Ravens to have interest.
The one other name that stands out, of course, is Torrey Smith. He quietly had a very productive year if you include his penalty yardage in his stats. You can’t ignore the significance of his ability to draw pass interference penalties down field. If the Ravens let him get to free agency on March 10th, he’s gone. Some team will overpay him and the Ravens won’t be able to and won’t want to match the offer. However, If they can strike a deal prior to the start of free agency, I’m all for it.
Just to give a little bit of hope, I calculated the same scores for all of the Ravens’ receivers last season. Again, this is a score to grade efficiency when given the opportunity, not to grade who is necessarily the better receiver skill wise.
Source: Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Outsiders
If Torrey goes, they’ll have to find a deep threat either through the draft or free agency, but the young guys on the roster proved their worth last season. The top three guys were limited in their opportunities, but they were more efficient than their teammates.
It’s safe to say that the Ravens will add depth to their wide receiving corps this offseason, but there’s no telling where the depth will come from. Will it be free agency? Roster cuts? The draft? They might add pieces in free agency, but if you’re looking for a #1 receiver, that will have to come via the draft. It’s just not feasible for them to add a true #1 elsewhere.
As the top level free agents come off the board, let’s not get frustrated and understand that there are plans in place for any number of situations.
Ozzie knows what he’s doing.
