When the Ravens hired Gary Kubiak to be their offensive coordinator, I was very excited because I really thought that his version of the West Coast Offense (WCO) would benefit practically everyone on the team’s current roster.
Kubiak employs a lot of stretch zone blocking schemes that require running backs go with the flow of the offensive line, find the cutback lane, and hit it decisively. The proof is in the pudding thus far and all three backs (Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, and Lorenzo Taliaferro) are averaging over the benchmark 4.0 yards per carry. In fact, Forsett is averaging over 6.0 yards per carry and Taliaferro’s outstanding performance against Cleveland netted 5.1 yards per carry.
I was equally excited about how Kubiak’s offensive philosophy and tutelage would help Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ receivers become more consistent and productive. The WCO uses precise routes and formations to scheme receivers open so that receivers do not always have to rely on their athleticism and physicality to get open. The WCO also is beneficial for quarterbacks because there are more clearly defined routes so there is a higher probability of completing passes and getting the ball out quicker; this is already prevalent with Flacco only taking three sacks and having a 62% completion percentage so far. Flacco hasn’t had over a 60% completion since 2010 and the last three seasons has been around 58% on average.
The point is, Kubiak’s offense is already showing a great return on investment and the best part is that it normally takes an entire season before everything truly “clicks”.
Then, there is Torrey Smith.
For all of my excitement for bringing Kubiak to town, part of me was a bit concerned about how Torrey would fit into his offense. He was coming off his best season to date (65 receptions, 1,128 yards, & four TDs), but I think that was largely in part to him being the only viable receiving option for Joe to throw to in 2013. Torrey has always been a vertical threat and even last season when he was essentially Joe’s only option, he managed nearly 18 yards per reception. Torrey also has a knack for drawing a pass interference penalty because his speed makes it difficult for defenders to stay with him.
However, Torrey does not appear to be a very good route runner and he seems to be having difficulty jelling with Flacco in this new offense. For someone who is in a contract year (he is set to be a free agent after this season), he doesn’t seem to be performing like he wants that big 2nd contract that so many receivers are able to get.
To make matters worse, it doesn’t even really look like he wants to be on the field (as evidenced by him jogging down the field on a play where he knew the ball wasn’t coming to him on Sunday.) I was hoping it was just a one-time thing, but going back and re-watching All-22 coverage of the Bengals and Steelers games, it does indeed seem that Torrey isn’t going 100% on plays where Flacco’s first read is not him.
In my opinion, dogging plays where you’re not directly involved is unacceptable. This is a guy who is supposed to be the Ravens’ #1 receiver. He is supposed to be a leader on the field and someone who is widely considered to be a high character player. How is that setting a good example for young guys on the team when you have a 35-year-old Steve Smith Sr. going all out on every play during games AND practices?
Before everyone gets defensive and claims that Torrey is being double covered, all I can say is go back and watch All-22. He’s not being double covered much at all; Smith Sr. is being doubled more than Torrey is.
To anyone stating that Joe isn’t targeting him all that much (18 times in three games): well, that really isn’t true either as Joe has done a pretty good job spreading the ball around. Senior has been targeted 32 times, Dennis Pitta 22 times, Owen Daniels 11 times, Jacoby Jones nine times, Justin Forsett 15 times, Kyle Juszczyk five times, and Kamar Aiken four times. Right now, Torrey has six receptions for 85 yards which is roughly on pace for 32 receptions and about 450 yards; a far cry from #1 receiver numbers.
I know three games isn’t that big of a sample size and I am hopeful that he’ll figure it out as the season progresses, but I have to wonder if it is too late. I also have to wonder if maybe he’s just not into it. I just cannot get over him not going all out every time he is on the field. At this moment, considering what some of the top free agent receivers have gotten over the past two years (noted below), I’m not really sure that paying a substantial amount of money for Torrey is a good idea for the Ravens after this season. I know that my position isn’t necessarily a popular one, but I think that money could be used elsewhere (cornerback, running back, and safety for example) and I also think that there may be better options for the WCO in 2015.
The following are some of the top contracts given to receivers that I think Torrey would be comparable to when he hits free agency:
- 2013 Mike Wallace – 5 year, $60 million, 30 guaranteed ($12M avg per year)
- 2014 DeSean Jackson – 3 year, $24 mill, $16 guaranteed (8M avg per year)
- 2014 Eric Decker – 5 year, $36.25 mill, $15 guaranteed (7.25M avg per year)
- 2014 Emmanuel Sanders – 3 year. $15 mill, $6 guaranteed (5M avg per year)
Now, I’m not saying that Torrey is as good or is worse than the four guys mentioned above, but if he is looking for a contract similar to what Mike Wallace got in 2013 from the Miami Dolphins, he is going to have seriously turn things around. Prior to that contract, Wallace had two 1,000+ yard seasons and 26 touchdowns in his final three years with Pittsburgh.
DeSean Jackson’s contract with the Redskins has a high yearly average, but only got about half of the guaranteed money that Wallace got. In 2013, Jackson had over 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns.
Eric Decker’s last two seasons with Denver showed he can produce at a high level with back-to-back 1,000+ yard and double-digit touchdown seasons.
Emmanuel Sanders played second fiddle to Antonio Brown while in Pittsburgh, but he still netted almost 70 receptions, over 700 yards, and six touchdowns.
Right now, based on these four contracts, I think Torrey falls somewhere between Sanders and Decker. If I were the Ravens, I wouldn’t go any higher than $6.5-7 million per year on average for Torrey. I just don’t see a good return on value from him for a big time contract and if he does indeed want a contract similar to what Wallace got in Miami, well then as far as I’m concerned he can test free agency and the Ravens should respectfully move on.
A better option would be to use that money to give Jimmy Smith and Pernell McPhee long-term deals. Both are integral parts of the defensive side of the ball – Jimmy is one of the top young corners in the NFL, and McPhee is – in my opinion – the Ravens’ best pass-rusher.
As far as who could replace Torrey in this offense, well, at his current pace it wouldn’t take much. I think there are a few receivers that may be free agents who could be intriguing and not overly priced (Cecil Shorts for example), but I also think that Marlon Brown, Kamar Aiken, and Michael Campanaro would be able to pick up some of the slack. I also think that the Ravens should strongly consider using a high draft pick on a receiver. The 2015 draft class looks to be stacked with some really great receiver talent, but I think any the following would be great fits for Kubiak’s WCO:
- Rashad Greene, Florida State, 5’11” 185lbs
- Stefon Diggs, Maryland, 6’ 195lbs
- Amari Cooper, Alabama, 6’1” 210lbs
All of these receivers have very good hands, have had super productive collegiate careers, and have a nice blend of speed and route-running ability. I know I have mentioned Diggs in other RSR blogs, but I really think he could be something special (and he is currently coached by Keenan McCardell, one of the better route runners of his day in the NFL).
I’m hoping that Torrey proves me wrong and I’ll gladly eat crow if he does.
Right now, all I see is someone who isn’t a very good fit for the new direction of the offense and, quite frankly, someone who doesn’t even seem to be all that interested in making the most of every single play.
