BREAKING BAD BY BREAKING EVEN?
RAVENS PLAYOFF PICTURE, WEEK 15 ADDENDUM
Scenarios for the Ravens gaining the #6 seed at 10-6 or 9-7 have been beaten to death. The remaining question is, could they make it into the dance at 8-8?
They might. It would take a bit of fortune, but it’s not as farfetched as it seems.
Start with a list of the other contenders: MIA (currently 7-6), SD and NYJ (6-7), TEN & PGH (5-8).
Clearly MIA must lose at least twice more. With their remaining schedule (NE, @BUF, NYJ) it’s not all that implausible.
The Jets (@CAR, CLE, @MIA) and Bolts (@DEN, OAK, KC) must lose at least once more. Again, not so outrageous.
In any tied scenario, Pittsburgh is the Ravens’ Kryptonite—as noted in previous installments, the Steelers hold all the tiebreakers (down to common opponents). So for the Ravens to advance, the Steelers (CIN, @GB, CLE) must lose at least once more. (NB All you Crow fans searching desperately for a reason not to root for the Yinzers next Sunday night, voila!)
In fact is entirely possible that by midnight next Sunday all 5 of these contenders will have one more loss, taking care of PGH & TEN instantamundo. (It is just as possible that by midnight Monday, so will the Ravens, so keep your shirts on, kids.)
Next, the Dolphins would need to lose either at Buffalo or to the Jets. That would leave the Fins at 8-8, 2-4 AFCE, 7-5 AFC. If the Jets lose at Carolina but win their remaining, they would be 8-8, 3-3 AFCE, 5-7 AFC, 1-1 vs MIA.
Ties in the standings are settled within the division first. So either Miami or the Jets would emerge as a contender at 8-8, but not both–& if Rex has beaten the Fins in the regular season finale, it would be Gang Green by virtue of better divisional record.
This leaves San Diego, which with only one more loss would finish 8-8, 5-7 AFC. For completeness, let’s throw the Titans back into the mix—were they to win out (ARZ, @JAX, HOU) they’d finish 8-8, 6-6 AFC.
Currently the Ravens are 7-6, 3-2 AFCN, 6-4 AFC. Finishing 8-8, they would have won exactly one of their remaining games. If it was either New England or Cincy, their AFC record would be 7-5; if Detroit, their AFC record would be 6-6.
1. In a two-way tie with either Miami or the Jets at 8-8, the Ravens advance, since they’ve beaten both.
2. In a two-way tie with San Diego at 8-8, the Ravens advance due to better conference record.
From here on out the difference in conference records becomes crucial.
3. In a two-way tie with the Titans, the Ravens would advance on conference record if their 8th win was over an AFC team. If not, AFC records would be tied, record in games between common opponents would also be tied at 3-2 (TEN: DEN 0-1, HOU 1-1, NYJ 1-0, PGH 1-0 vs BAL: DEN 0-1. HOU 1-0, NYJ 1-0, PGH 1-1), and tiebreaking would descend to The Dreaded Strength Of Victory.
Here are the key factors for SOV between Baltimore and Tennessee:
a. Both teams would have defeated PGH, HOU & NYJ once, so these are a wash
b. The Titans would have also defeated ARZ (7), JAX (3), OAK (4), STL (5) & SD (5) for a current relative SOV score of 24
c. The Ravens would also have defeated CLE (4), MIA (7), CIN (9), MIN (3.5) & DET (7) for a current relative SOV score of 30.5
d. The prospects look good for the Ravens but by no means certain, since as much as a 13-point swing is possible in the last 3 weeks of the season
4. For 3- or 4-way ties at 8-8, note first that there are no head-to-head sweeps, so the first tiebreaker is AFC record. This means that San Diego and the Jets (at 5-7 in the conference) would be eliminated at this step in all cases. If the Ravens were tied with just these two teams they would advance.
5. In a 3-way tie with TEN & either SD or NYJ, or a 4-way tie with TEN, SD & NYJ, the Ravens would advance with an AFC record of 7-5. With an AFC record of 6-6, tiebreaking would revert to the top of the list and proceed as in case 3 above (all the way down to SOV).
6. In a 3-way tie with MIA and either TEN or SD, or a 4-way tie with MIA, TEN & SD, the Ravens would advance with a 7-5 AFC record (TEN &/or SD is eliminated, tiebreakers revert to the top & Baltimore holds head-to-head over MIA) or be eliminated with a 6-6 AFC record as Miami advances.
So we may summarize the possibility of an 8-8 Ravens team slipping into the playoffs as follows:
IF
• No AFC team (other than division winners & KC) finishes better than 8-8, i.e.,
o The Dolphins lose at least 2 of their last 3 games, and
o The Jets & Chargers lose at least 1 of their last 3 games
AND
• The Steelers lose at least 1 of their last 3 games
THEN
• Baltimore with an 8-8 record advances to the AFC Playoffs as the #6 seed
UNLESS
• The Ravens’ last 2 losses are to AFC teams (NE & CIN), and either
o MIA finishes 8-8 (winning tiebreakers if necessary over NYJ) along with TEN &/or SD, or
o TEN also finishes 8-8, and their SOV score is higher than Baltimore’s
In Week 15, Ravens fans will already be following with no little interest SD@DEN, NE@MIA and CIN@PGH. Those passionately numerical types who want to really dive deep into the Strength of Victory possibilities vs the Titans—which, keep in mind, are only active until & unless Tennessee loses or ties, or Baltimore loses to Detroit—can keep score as follows:
• Add 1 to Tennessee’s current relative SoV score (24) each time ARZ, JAX, OAK, STL or SD wins
• Add 1 to Baltimore’s current relative SoV score (30.5) each time CLE, MIA, CIN, MIN or DET wins.
And there you have it.
And it didn’t take a Heisenberg (he said uncertainly)….
