While the necessary improvements that need to be made at cornerback, safety and wide receiver will be the key discussion topics during free agency and the draft, the Baltimore Ravens also face a tough situation at running back.
With just two running backs from last year’s 53-man roster under contract for 2015 – Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro – and two that are free agents – Justin Forsett (unrestricted) and Fitz Toussaint (exclusive rights) – it will not be an easy process when it comes to building up the backfield for next season.
The key card in this process will be Forsett, a player who appeared to be nearing the end of his value to the NFL before becoming a Pro Bowl player for the Ravens in 2014. The Ravens lucked into Forsett, as the journeyman was cast off by the Jacksonville Jaguars after a six-carry 2013 season in which injuries held him to just nine games. Since he was released, it seemed like a no-brainer to scoop up Forsett, as he would not cost the Ravens a compensatory pick and had a history with Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme from his Houston Texans days.
Of course, by no-brainer, I meant someone who could fill in and help absorb the loss of Ray Rice, who at the time of Forsett’s signing, was facing a suspension by the NFL. The eventual release of Rice would open up a season-long stint with the Ravens for Forsett. However, while he was the team’s best running back from the start, nobody could have imagined how valuable he would end up being for the offense.
Forsett was brought in on a league-minimum salary. After his stellar year, he will certainly be getting paid more in 2015, but will that be in Baltimore? And a better question should be: should the Ravens dish out the money for Forsett?
A fan favorite, Forsett has already stated his desire to return to the Ravens. But for a player who has not accumulated much pay in recent years, money may trump his love for the team and city.
Having Forsett in Baltimore would be an ideal situation, but with Baltimore’s cap issues, overpaying simply cannot be an option. The Ravens must be realistic, not sentimental to a player who has had one of the better success stories in the franchise’s history.
Let’s take a look at some other recent free agent running backs around the same category as Forsett to gain an idea of what type of deal could be in store.
(All photos courtesy of Over The Cap)
In 2014, some middle-of-the-line running backs inked pretty favorable deals. For example, New York Giants running back Rashad Jennings signed a deal worth $10 million over four years:
Another non-starter with his former team who was payed like one with his new organization was Toby Gerhart, who inked a generous  three-year deal:
Jennings was born in 1985 (like Forsett), while Gerhart was born in 1987, making it easier to see why a team would want to invest more money in him.
Looking at players around Forsett’s age sheds some light on market value, and reveals that Jenning’s contract is likely more comparable. Another running back born in 1985 who signed with a New York team last offseason could help offer an idea of a price for Forsett.
The New York Jets signed Chris Johnson to a two-year deal worth $8 million:
In terms of years, Johnson’s is the best to examine. With Forsett set to turn 30 during the 2015 season, any more than two years would be rather unreasonable.
In terms of money, somewhere between the average rate of $2.5 million per year for Jennings and Johnson’s $4 million per year seems like an ideal range. So somewhere in the two year, $6-6.5 million range should be around the maximum the team should offer Forsett.
A deal which makes it easier to part with Forsett after 2015 – in case he truly was a one-year wonder – would be ideal.
Let’s say the Ravens re-sign Forsett to a contract in that range…what should happen next?
Re-signing Forsett should be a priority, but that should not be the only domino to fall.
Taliaferro proved himself as a valuable commodity during his rookie year while Pierce continued his disappointing production since his rookie season in 2012.
It should be expected that Taliaferro can take on a workload of at least 100 carries in 2015. Pierce on the other hand is entering the final year of his rookie contract and quite frankly does not hold much value to the offense other than his cheap salary.
If Forsett is re-signed, changes should be made to help both the short term and long term viability of the backfield. The best way to achieve this is via the draft, where cheap, young options can be found.
In the early rounds, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon has been a popular choice for the Ravens among “mockers.” Gordon’s talent and his connection to Ravens running backs coach Thomas Hammock – formerly of Wisconsin – makes the idea of Gordon in Baltimore intriguing. However, using a high pick on a running back is risky, and Georgia’s Todd Gurley is likely the only one worthy of consideration if the Ravens were to use their first selection on a running back, which seems unlikely.
After the first two rounds, there figures to be plenty of talented running backs up for grabs.
Miami’s Duke Johnson, a complete running back with receiving ability could be an option, as could Boise State’s Jay Ajayi, a physical but nimble runner who would add some physicality to Baltimore’s backfield.
For those who believe the Ravens value Alabama prospects, perhaps T.J. Yeldon could spark some interest. Yeldon is an upright runner (which could lead to issues in the NFL); however, his quickness, agility and open field playmaking make him a viable candidate to participate in a backfield by committee, which the Ravens could favor in the coming seasons.
Value at running back is found in the later rounds; just look at this past season’s playoff teams. In the AFC, the lead running backs of the last four team’s standing were Forsett, Daniel Herron, C.J. Anderson and LeGarrette Blount.
Forsett was selected in the seventh round and Herron was a sixth-round pick, while Anderson and Blount went undrafted.
If Forsett, Taliaferro, Pierce and Toussaint all return, adding a day three or late day two running back to the mix would make the backfield deep, cheap and young. Drafting a running back could also make Pierce expendable.
In a perfect world, the Ravens should try to re-sign Forsett on a cheap deal at a reasonable price, while also looking at the long-term picture and using one of their expected nine draft picks on a running back.
New offensive coordinator Marc Trestman favors the passing game, but having a crowded backfield would only help Baltimore’s cause. Being able to have a different running back carry a load in any given game would make the Ravens not only more likely to win the AFC North, but also to hold leads in January.
