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PiR: Week 3 & Already a True “Must-Win”

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REALITY: Steve Smith Sr. now has 927 career catches, and passed Torry Holt, Sunday, for 17th on the all-time receptions list. 

PERCEPTION: Smith is now just 73 catches away from 1,000 for his career. Only 10 players in the history of the NFL have reached 1,000 catches.

Smith has averaged 64.3 catches per season in his 13 year career. He started the season needing 85 catches to break 1,000. He has caught more than that three times in his career.

I made a “Bold Prediction” that Smith would catch 90 balls this year and cross over 1,000 for his career. To do that, he would need to average 5.2 catches per game the rest of the season. He has done better than that in the first two games of the season.

Smith deserves to be in an exclusive club, and being only the 11th person to ever cross 1,000 catches would be quite a feat for one of the best to play the game.

REALITY: There have been nine extra points missed in just two weeks of the 2015 season. In the entire 2014 season, only eight extra points were missed.

PERCEPTION: I actually love this stat. I love that there is now only one play in the NFL that is meaningless… the kick-off (most of the time). Everything else has real meaning.

I have seen some saying that the new extra point system is dumb. I disagree. It makes the game more exciting. The kickers who don’t like it? Kick better and you won’t care. Justin Tucker was not a fan of moving the extra point back, but you know what? If he continues to kick everything through the center of the uprights, who cares?

If kickers are missing this many now, just wait until this winter when the weather turns bad. You’ll see 2-point conversion attempts go way up as coaches will not want their kickers trying on that sloppy Heinz Field or Gillette Stadium mess.

REALITY: Since 1990, only 12% of teams to start 0-2 have reached the playoffs.

PERCEPTION: There are a lot of teams that were expected to be in the playoffs that are 0-2. The Seahawks, Eagles, Giants, Lions, Saints, Colts, Texans, and Ravens all had realistic playoff aspirations, and all are winless. That will not continue. At least one, if not more, of those teams will make the playoffs. But the next two weeks are critical.

ESPN’s Jamison Hensley reported that only three of the 124 teams that have started the season 0-3, since 1990, have made the playoffs.

So that means this week, at home, against the Cincinnati Bengals becomes as much of a “must win” as any Week 3 game can be. Going 0-3 stinks, but now you’d also be nearly four games out in the AFC North… something that makes winning the division nearly impossible.

And it doesn’t get any easier. The Ravens “must win” Sunday, but then they turn around four days later and go to Pittsburgh for what would be a “needs to win.”

If they can somehow be 2-2 after Week 4, then there are no worries. If they are 1-3, it is still manageable (albeit very tough). If they are 0-4, at that point you might as well try for the #1 pick in the draft, or at least a Top 10.

As I said on twitter numerous times over the last week and a half, that opening week loss to Denver hurts the Ravens immensely, not only in their record, but also in their playoff hopes and in their goal of playoff home games.

REALITY: The Ravens take on the Bengals this weekend and lead the all-time series 20-18.

PERCEPTION: The Bengals have actually won the last three meetings and four of the last five. So they don’t care that this game is being played in Baltimore. The Bengals seems to always give the Ravens a fight, and it will be no different Sunday. The Bengals are playing well, but the Ravens have to win the game. That desperation, and the fact that it’s the Ravens’ home opener, should give the Ravens the edge they need.

Now, let’s see which defense shows up Sunday.

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