Ravens Tight Ends in for a Rough Day?

How’d ya do last week in fantasy football?

If you paid attention to what we threw at you last week… well, you probably have a bone to pick with me, and a related need to rebound this week. After all, it seems every keeper, sleeper and bust from last week were all, in fact, busts (sans Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and Mark Andrews). 

We’ll do better this week, I promise.

Let’s start with our Ravens, who host the Houston Texans this weekend.

Keeper: Lamar Jackson

How can you not start Lamar Jackson is the better question? Houston comes to Baltimore with the 29th ranked pass defense (in terms of yards per game) against the MVP candidate in Jackson. I rest my case.

Sleeper: Miles Boykin

That 29th-ranked pass defense of the Texans has me thinking we’ll see a good bit of passing going on, but the Texans tend to give it up to wideouts on the perimeter more than to backs and Tight Ends (more on that in a second). With that said, I expect to see a more evenly dispersed amount of targets this week, and Miles Boykin could very well be the beneficiary of some RZ targets as we’ve seen in the past. A 3/4/40/1 (13 FP) day wouldn’t shock me at all.

Ew: The Tight Ends

Okay, so try not to kill me for this one, because I had to pick something for this section, and in my research, I came to find that while the Texans pass D is atrocious, they give up the 5th fewest points to opposing Tight Ends & have allowed only 1 TD to a Tight End this season (Darren Waller). Yes, I know we have a trio of studs, but for that reason, I expect to see an even distribution among the Tight Ends. If Andrews, Boyle and Hurst all end up with 20-60 yards (similar to last week) I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked.

Quarterback

Keeper: Tom Brady (vs Eagles)

Brady is coming off a bye, giving him more time to acclimate Mohamed Sanu, and facing an Eagles defense that can’t stop the pass. It’s a match made in fantasy heaven.

Sleeper: Derek Carr (vs Bengals)

The Bengals have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and Derek Carr has 20+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games, with 29 against Houston (7th most points allowed by opposing QBs) and 23 against Detroit (6th most allowed by opposing QBs) in that stretch. More of the same to be expected when they host the Bengals this weekend.

Ew: Philip Rivers (vs Chiefs)

Rivers put up a pair of awful fantasy showings in Week 8 (Bears) and 9 (Packers) but it was to be expected versus two stout pass defenses in the fantasy world. Last week, however, Rivers faced a Raiders D that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QBs… and he completely let down fantasy owners with 207 yards, 2 scores and 3 picks. Kansas City is a tougher matchup this week (although not stout in their own right) and I’ve simply lost faith in Rivers moving forward. 

Running Back

Keeper: Zeke Elliott (vs Lions)

The Lions give up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs and Zeke is, well, a monster in the backfield. He’s going to be doing plenty of that weird eating gesture that he loves to do.

Sleeper: James White (vs Eagles)

James White (allegedly) had a toe injury prior to playing Baltimore in Week 9, and still came up with 15 fantasy points in a Ravens rout. White is out-snapping Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, and against an Eagles defense that struggles against the pass, I expect more White and less of the other backs this week.

Ew: Todd Gurley (vs Bears)

Gurley is a touchdown-dependent fantasy option these days, and unfortunately, he’s not seeing many of those this season. His best 2 games came in Week 4 vs Tampa (5/16/2 rushing, 7/11/54/0 receiving) and Week 5 vs Seattle (15/51/2 rushing) but otherwise he’s barely been a flex option for lineups. Expect the Bears to swallow this Rams offense much like the Steelers did last week in Pittsburgh.

Wide Receiver

Keeper: Michael Thomas (vs Bucs)

So hey – the Saints offense is going to come out pissed off and firing off. The Bucs allow the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts in the entire NFL, and to expect less that a 150+ yards, 2 TD game out of Michael Thomas on Sunday would be foolish. Play him and play him all day.

Sleeper: Hollywood Brown (vs Texans)

I know I didn’t put Hollywood in the Ravens sleeper section, but I can have more than one, right? The Texans give up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, and tend to get burned on deep routes, which Hollywood happens to rock on. I don’t think it’ll be a heavy volume day for Brown, but he’ll find the space, Lamar will pinpoint his target, and we’ll see a pair of 30+ yard scores from Brown this week.

Ew: Christian Kirk (vs 49ers)

Kirk blew the hell up last week with 6 receptions on 10 targets for 138 yards and 3 scores (42 fantasy points PPR). Alas, that’s what happens when you face the biggest cupcake of a fantasy defense. This week the Cards take on the 49ers, who have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Kirk is due for a snoozefest this week on the stat sheet.

Tight End

Keeper: Darren Waller (vs Bengals)

I keep going back to the Raiders offense this week, but Waller owners need only to look at what Mark Andrews did to the Bengals last week (6/8/53/2) and get excited for the outcome here.

Sleeper: TJ Hockenson (vs Cowboys)

The Cowboys have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing Tight Ends this season, and for proof of their shortcomings, you can look no further than last week when Kyle Rudolph found the end zone 3 times (2 touchdowns and a 2-point conversion). Hock has broken out a few big games (more stank than success), and I expect another big show this weekend.

Ew: Mike Gesicki (vs Bills)

A few weeks back, Gesicki looked as if he’d finally figured out how to thrive as an NFL Tight End… only to revert to being Mike Ge-Suck-I (amirite??). Coming into a matchup with the Bills, who allow the least possible fantasy points to opposing Tight Ends, will only further solidify his status as a worse Tight End than either of the Ravens Tight Ends drafted in the same class. 

Defense/Special Teams

Keeper: Patriots (vs Eagles)

The Eagles aren’t a bad offense by any stretch, but much like I had said in regards to Brady, giving the Patriots a bye week to get healthy and refocus after a Ravens curbstomp will have their defense honed in and pissed off all at the same time. My condolences to Eagles fans.

Sleeper: Browns (vs Steelers)

I don’t love the Browns defense by any means, but the Steelers offense is middling and I think a pressure-filled game from the Browns defensive line will give Mason Rudolph fits (and more importantly, turnovers). 

Ew: Chargers (vs Chiefs)

While the Bolts have kept opposing offenses short on points of late (4 TDs allowed in last 3 games), fantasy defenses thrive on turnovers – something the Chargers haven’t forced in the last 2 weeks, and something they’ll likely struggle to create against a Patrick Mahomes led offense. 

Kickers

Keeper: Whoever is already on your roster, barring they’re on a bye week

Sleeper: The free agent kicker you don’t have

Ew: The kickers that are either on a bye week, or the IR.