OTL: Will Ravens Adapt? Or Perish?

I wish I could tell you that this early in the season, I wasn’t willing to let pessimism get to me. I wish I could tell you that I felt like the two losses Baltimore has suffered to this point were just flukes.

I wish I could tell you that.

The Ravens sit at 2-2 through four weeks, and while that’s not ideal, it could certainly be worse. The record at the moment isn’t the issue; the issue is how we got here.

The Ravens' in-game win probability from their first two home games says it all. pic.twitter.com/bMN5Yh0i4n

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 2, 2022

Sunday’s implosion against the Bills marks the second time in three weeks that the Ravens have held a three-possession lead, at home, and lost. Usually, you can chalk up a bad loss for a good team in any given season, and that’s what I was hoping happened in Week 2 against Miami. Following that game, there was plenty of coach speak and players reading the company line about “winning or learning, we’ll use this opportunity to get better down the road,” so on and so forth.

Here they are, two weeks later, doing it again.

Gotta keep chasing the details to be the team we KNOW we can become. A lot to be proud of. A lot to get better from. Gotta keep pressing and move forward. Love my squad 💜 #wintogetherlosetogether

— Pat Ricard 🥞 (@PRic508) October 2, 2022

"Our job is to… come in next week and correct those things." pic.twitter.com/MkbQ6irf45

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 2, 2022

I said it in Sunday’s Knee-Jerk Reactions piece and I’ll say it again here: something’s got to give. This team should easily be 3-1, if not 4-0 with a stranglehold on an otherwise sub-par division. Instead, they’re now even with the Browns and Bengals, the latter of whom they host on Sunday night at M&T. While playing at The Bank has historically generated a massive home-field advantage, a concerning trend is carrying over from last season.

The #Ravens are having a tough home stretch. pic.twitter.com/mBBo8pS8hV

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 3, 2022

I can already hear detractors bringing up how devastated Baltimore’s roster was by injury down the stretch, and I don’t want to discount that; the Ravens were historically beaten-up last year. That was a huge part of the reasoning behind investing heavily in the secondary this past offseason. Despite the revamped unit, it feels like they’re in the exact same spot, where no lead feels safe.

Coach Harbaugh anticipated the criticism, and addressed it in yesterday’s presser. Maybe I’m too salty to be receptive at the moment, but this quote truly didn’t help.

John Harbaugh was asked about losing 7 straight one-score games: "Five of those are last year, so it's a different team. That's more your narrative to write and beat us down with. You want to beat us over the head with that, go for it. We have board shoulders. We can take it. "

— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) October 3, 2022

If it’s any small consolation, I guess I’m glad that he’s willing to have criticism heaped on. There’s plenty to go around. If issues are carrying over from one season to the next, clearly the current changes in scheme and personnel weren’t enough to address it. Being optimistic that the problems will be addressed is fine; in fact, as a head coach and a leader, it’s necessary. But optimism without accountability solves nothing.

John Harbaugh on going for the TD instead of the FG: "I felt like it gave us the best chance to win the game."

Harbaugh said he was "very confident" in the defense's ability there.

"In hindsight, you take the points."

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 2, 2022

To Coach Harbaugh’s point, winning solves a lot of ills, but I, for one, am sick of hearing about how things look in hindsight. We heard enough about hindsight at the end of last season when Baltimore failed to complete a pair of two-point conversions three weeks apart that cost them games. Every single person watching knows what the team was capable of doing, but it’s up to leadership and execution to get it there.

The bottom line is that this team desperately needs to adjust. Opposing teams have run laps around the Ravens in the adjustment department so far this year, while both sides of the ball for Baltimore have stagnated as the game progressed. There were rumblings last season that opposing defenses were calling out Baltimore’s offensive formations at the line, and it seems like the offense has continued to tip its hand.

So far this season, when Isaiah Likely has been on the field the offense has run a pass play 84% of the time.

This week it increased to 91%.

This is too much of a tell…need to fix it.

(Data from NFLreadR)

— Daniel Rees (@DPRees8) October 3, 2022

This theory certainly seems to be supported by the fact that Baltimore has a total of nine points in the fourth quarter so far this season. That total feels like such a waste given the sheer talent on offense.

The novelty of the occasional shovel pass has worn off. The “Win or Learn” mantra has grown ineffective, as the results haven’t proven that learning has happened along the way. In a sport that requires constant adjustment to be competitive, I’ll leave you with a parting thought from H.G. Wells: “Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature’s inexorable imperative.”